Sensing blood in the political waters, Republican groups inside and outside Virginia are pumping money into the district of Democratic incumbent Rep. Gerry Connolly, financing attack ads and bolstering the campaign coffers of his Republican opponent, Keith Fimian, in hopes of seizing control of a seat Democrats once considered relatively safe.
Just two years ago, President Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate in 44 years to carry Virginia, and Connolly cruised to a 12-point win over Fimian in Virginia’s 11th District. But as Obama’s popularly dimmed in the Old Dominion, so did Connolly’s prospects for re-election.
Connolly, who supported high-profile Democratic initiatives like Obama’s health care reforms, now appears far less safe than prognosticators had claimed and his party had hoped.
Fimian raised more than $1 million between July and September, compared to Connolly’s $418,000. With most of that money still in the bank, Fimian now rivals Connolly’s $1.4 million war chest with just two weeks left in the campaign.
Outside groups are also stepping in. The conservative American Action Network, which is targeting vulnerable Democrats around the country, purchased nearly $1 million in television advertising time to attack Connolly.
Democrats are playing down the impact of that outside spending on Connolly’s chances. Some GOP groups are spending money on long-shot races just to keep national Democrats from spending their money elsewhere, one Northern Virginia Democratic strategist claims.
James Walkinshaw, Connolly’s campaign manager, discounts Republican claims that Connolly is in danger, noting that Fimian has his own obstacles to overcome on the campaign trail, including questions about his opposition to abortion rights.
“It’s actually Mr. Fimian on defense,” Walkinshaw said.
The scales still tip toward Connolly, according to the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report and Cook Political Report, though some political handicappers have listed the race as a tossup.
While outside groups begin to focus on him, Connolly is also taking heat from elected officials in the district. Prince William County supervisors Corey Stewart and Wally Covington, both Republicans, launched a broadside against Connolly over economic stimulus funding intended to hire new teachers.
“At first, we did not want to say anything about it,” said Stewart, who has sparred with Connolly in the past. “We thought it would be seen as a partisan attack. But the stakes are just too high.”
Such matters may not have caused a stir earlier in the election cycle, when Republicans were focused on Virginia Democrats considered far more vulnerable than Connolly, including Rep. Glenn Nye in the 2nd District that includes Hampton Roads and Rep. Tom Perriello in the state’s central 5th District.
With the election now just two weeks away, however, Republicans are sensing another opportunity in Connolly’s district, said Andy Sere, regional spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee.
“I think everyone feels that this is one of those races that’s going to break one way or the other in the last couple of weeks here,” Sere said.
