NFL Week 7: Three games you can’t miss

The Titans miraculously managed to rally and beat the Texans in overtime last week thanks to phenomenal performances by Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, who definitely seems to be worth the contract he received in the offseason, and the heroics of kicker Stephen Gostkowski, have led the Titans to an undefeated record.

Henry is just starting to find his groove after racking up 212 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 22 carries. For those trying to do the math at home, that’s nearly 10 yards per carry. He’ll be instrumental if they want to make a deep push into the playoffs as they did last year.

On the other sideline, the Steelers shut down the league’s top rushing team last week. They held the Browns to just 75 rushing yards on 22 carries. Kareem Hunt could only manage just over 3 yards per carry. The Steelers beat bad teams in their first four wins but put it together and demolished a Browns squad that was 4-1 and riding a lot of momentum into Pittsburgh. This game will go a long way toward showing us what kind of team the Steelers really are.

The Steelers are tied for the league’s third-best scoring defense, second in defending against the run, eighth in pass defense, and are one of just three teams allowing fewer than 5 yards per play. They lead the league in sacks and are sacking quarterbacks more than 12% of the time when they drop back to pass. However, they just lost inside linebacker Devin Bush for the season. Will the Steelers still be as balanced and dangerous on defense without him?

The Titans are 26th in the NFL at defending the run and 28th when it comes to defending the pass. They’re middle of the pack in scoring defense but are dead last in red-zone and third-down defense. No team allows more conversions on third downs, and they’ve allowed opponents to score touchdowns on a preposterous 87.5% of their trips to the red zone! Luckily for the Titans, they’re third in the NFL in red-zone offense. They’ll need to continue to score touchdowns in the red zone instead of settling for field goals if they want to keep up.

With a bruising duo of backs in James Conner and Benny Snell, it’s hard to imagine that the Steelers won’t again try to establish their dominance on the ground to set up play-action to Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The line: Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

The pick: This should be a good game between two great teams. I think the Steelers defense gives them the edge, so I’m grabbing the points and taking the Steelers to win as road underdogs.

Seattle Seahawks (5-0) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2), 8:20 p.m. EDT on NBC

As good as the Seattle Seahawks have looked at times this season, they only have one win by more than 8 points this season, and that was against the Falcons in Week 1.

The Seahawks are 19th in scoring defense, seventh in run defense, and dead last in pass defense. They are giving up a massive 370.4 yards per game through the air! The famously abysmal Falcons defense is giving up 35 fewer passing yards per game than Seattle is.

Enter the Arizona Cardinals. They’re 19th in passing offense and fourth in rushing offense. They’re 11th in scoring offense at 27.7 points per game. One big problem is that Seattle currently owns the top scoring offense in the league and is averaging just under 34 points per game.

Kyler Murray has had a great season in his second year as a pro. While he has six picks on the year, he has thrown for 10 touchdowns and has run for six more. Murray, along with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds, have created problems for teams when they’re running the ball.

DeAndre Hopkins has at least twice as many receiving yards, targets, and receptions as anyone else on the roster and is averaging 100 receiving yards per game. He’ll be the main focus of Seattle’s porous pass defense. That should open up some potential plays down the field for speedster Christian Kirk and underneath for future first-ballot Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald.

Russell Wilson is putting together an MVP-caliber season under center for Seattle. The #LetRussCook campaign has allowed Wilson to put up some gaudy numbers. He has 19 touchdown passes, with just three interceptions while completing nearly 73% of his passes. He’s also second on the team in rushing. This is not the Seahawks team that we have come to know. The team that was once the most run-heavy offense in the league now loves to air it out.

Chris Carson is still effective and is getting touches both as a running back and as a receiver out of the backfield. Wilson, unlike Murray, has really been getting the bulk of his receiving work done with two guys: D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Carson is third on the team, with 21 catches, and then Greg Olsen is fourth with 15. Wilson simply continues to find ways to move the ball down the field.

This matchup features the NFL’s top two red-zone offenses. The Seahawks have scored touchdowns on 88.9% of their trips to the red zone, while the Cardinals have cashed in on 80% of their trips inside the 20. Expect to see quite a few touchdowns on Sunday night.

The line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The pick: Even though they crushed the Cowboys, the Cardinals did little to inspire me in the belief that they can hang with the Seahawks. I think the Cardinals score late to make it close, but I’m taking Seattle to win and cover.

Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2), 8:15 p.m. EDT Monday on ESPN

It hasn’t been pretty, but you can’t deny the results for the Chicago Bears. Their 5-1 record is impressive, and they’ve won all three road games. The Nick Foles era has been frustrating but successful. There are rare times when he shows flashes of the man that led the Eagles to the Super Bowl, but he also has moments where you wonder what he’s thinking and who he’s trying to throw to. The Rams had a clunker last week against San Francisco and are out to prove that it was a fluke.

This game will likely be a defensive battle. The offenses are somewhat competent but pale in comparison to their counterparts on the defensive side of the ball.

• The Rams are allowing just 19 points per game, while the Bears are giving up 19.3.
• The Rams are giving up 5 yards per play on offense, while the Bears are giving up 5.1.
• The Rams are giving up 109 rushing yards per game, while the Bears are giving up 113.
• The biggest differentiator is the pass defenses. Los Angeles is fourth in pass defense and is giving up 209.5 yards per game. Chicago is 10th and is allowing 224.2 yards per game through the air.

While the Bears have allowed just four passing touchdowns, the fewest by a team this season, and are eighth in tackles for loss, the Rams have one of the league’s most formidable pass rushes and are fifth in the NFL in sacks with 20.

I expect the offenses to struggle. The Rams are averaging just over 25 points per game, while the Bears manage just over 21. The Bears are 28th in rushing yards per game. The Rams, meanwhile, are 10th. The Rams are 15th in passing yards per game, and the Bears are 23rd. The Rams are 10th in offensive yards per play, and the Bears are 27th.

I think you’re starting to see a pattern emerge here. Both teams have really good defenses, but the Rams are better offensively across the board.

This is not the Jared Goff that led the Rams to the Super Bowl, and no one is confusing Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown for Todd Gurley. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee are the only players with more than one touchdown catch, and Kupp dropped a pair of potential touchdown passes last week. That simply can’t happen again.

For the Bears, the offense has to run through Allen Robinson II and Jimmy Graham because of David Montgomery’s ineffectiveness as a runner. They’ve utilized him more effectively catching passes out of the backfield, but he’s not the primary option. Robinson II is averaging nearly seven catches per game and has eight catches of at least 20 yards on the year. The Bears will need him to have a big game and will need Graham to help move the chains in order to get into a position to put points on the board. They don’t score often, so they’ll have to make it count and have the defense hold the Rams at bay.

The line: Los Angeles Rams (-6.0)

The pick: The final score of every Bears game so far this season has been really close. No reason to think this won’t be as well. I like the Rams to come out on top but not by more than 6. Grab the points.

Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.