Shutdown solution still leaves Pentagon in a bind

As many defense hawks on Capitol Hill keep pointing out, another continuing resolution just digs a deeper budget hole for the Pentagon. “Ending the current shutdown does not solve the funding crisis for the military,” said House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry said in a statement. “While our troops can be certain of one more paycheck before this temporary spending measure expires, Congress owes them much more than that. We owe them the certainty that they will have all the training, equipment and resources they need when they go into harm’s way.”

A CR EQUALS SEQUESTER: In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson says another stopgap measure does nothing to halt the steady decline in the combat readiness of the Air Force. A continuing resolution at last year’s level, she said, “is the equivalent to sequester for us.”

“I was in the service during the Cold War, and the readiness numbers are far lower than any general officer would have accepted during that time,” Wilson said. “Now that doesn’t mean that we won’t go. Low readiness levels mean we go. It means that fewer will come back. This is not a game. It’s a very dangerous world, and we need to be ready.”

WHO WAS HURT? The shutdown lasted only 69 hours, and only one regular work day. For many civilian Pentagon workers that amounted to a single wasted day filling out furlough paperwork and then heading home, with a half-day off. But the shutdown had the biggest impact on National Guard and reserve troops, the “shock absorbers” as Defense Secretary Jim Mattis calls them.

“Guard leaders were forced to cancel training for more than 90,000 Guardsmen over the weekend. This includes a major combat exercise involving units from North Carolina, South Carolina and West Virginia that required six months of planning. Soldiers were in their aircraft and vehicles ready to go when they were told to pack up and go home. A chance to enhance their readiness was lost, as well as two days’ pay,” said a statement issued by the National Guard Association of the United States. “Government shutdowns, stopgap budgets and spending caps are making it increasingly difficult to defend the greatest nation on Earth,” said the statement issued on behalf of Maj. Gen. James Hoyer, the NGAUS chairman of the board, and retired Brig. Gen. Roy Robinson, the NGAUS president.

WHAT NOW? In typical Washington fashion a lot of the post-game analysis focused on who won in the showdown between Democrats and Republicans. The president led the way with a tweet claiming the 81-18 vote in the Senate and 266-150 vote in the House was a “Big win for Republicans as Democrats cave on Shutdown.” Trump did say he’s ready to deal on the Democrats’ key demand, a restoration of Delayed Action on Childhood Arrivals protections instituted by President Barack Obama and rescinded by Trump. “Now I want a big win for everyone, including Republicans, Democrats and DACA, but especially for our Great Military and Border Security. Should be able to get there. See you at the negotiating table!”

FIGHT ANOTHER DAY: Losing support in his own party, and unable to strong-arm Republicans, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accepted a face-saving deal from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, which amounted to a promise to bring up the DACA legislation later. Democrats feel snakebitten by the wily McConnell who has deftly outmaneuvered them in the past.

“If an agreement isn’t reached by February the 8th, the Senate will immediately proceed to the consideration of legislation dealing with DACA immediately after the expiration of the bill on February 8th,” Schumer said on the Senate floor yesterday. “I am confident that there are 60 votes in the Senate for a DACA bill. And now there is a real pathway to get a bill on the floor and through the Senate,” Schumer said, adding a warning to McConnell.

“I expect the majority leader to fulfill his commitment to the Senate, to me and the bipartisan group, and abide by this agreement. If he does not, of course — and I expect he will — he will have breached the trust of not only the Democratic senators but the members of his own party as well.”

In a letter to her disappointed House Democrats, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi insisted that acquiescing now did not mean the fight was over. “While today’s vote ends the Trump Shutdown, it does not diminish our leverage,” Pelosi wrote, pointing out the bigger battle over the real budget is still to be fought. “Because of the Republican Majority’s weakness, we still do not have a long-term spending bill to address our defense and domestic priorities.”

VOTES FOR DACA: On the PBS NewsHour, Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen said support is building in the Senate for of a bipartisan bill sponsored by Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Dick Durbin. “Fifty-seven senators so far support the Durbin-Graham bill. We want to get over that number, and I’m confident that we can get there,’ Van Hollen said.

But the problem is even if it gets through the Senate, there is no guarantee it will make it through the House, or that the president will sign it. On CNN yesterday, White House spokesman Hogan Gidley trashed both Durbin and Graham as “completely dishonest” in how they represented their plan to Trump.

“They want open borders. They want amnesty. That’s what Lindsey Graham is about. I’m from South Carolina. I have known the man for a long time. And it is fine. He can take that position. But to pretend he is anything other than someone who wants open borders and amnesty is just disingenuous,” Gidley said.

SIGN OF HOPE FOR CAP DEAL: It may be wishful thinking, but some Senate Republicans and Democrats are saying yesterday’s bipartisan vote to end the shutdown just might offer a glimmer of hope for a longer-term deal on both military and domestic spending. That will a require a compromise to raise the budget caps imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act.

“We are a step closer,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Democrats “are going to be a little easier to talk to. It’s just my opinion.” Senators are hoping the Monday breakthrough could smooth the way for Congress to raise 2018 spending caps and pass an appropriations bill for the Pentagon.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

THE TURKS AND CHAOS: As NATO ally Turkey continues to press its offensive in northern Syria targeting U.S-backed Kurdish fighters , Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Mattis, both traveling, have been relegated to issuing expressions of concern, and assurances they are working the situation diplomatically. The U.S. does not have any troops in the Afrin region of Syria, which borders Turkey, but does have forces farther east at Manbij.

Asked by reporters traveling with him to Asia whether he was worried about the situation in northern Syria, Mattis replied, “We are very — yes. … Our top levels are engaged. Both Turkey and the American side. And we’re working through it.”

Turkey says its ground and air offensive, code-named “Operation Olive Branch,” is designed to establish a 20-mile buffer zone along Turkey’s southern border with Syria. The operation is targeting a Kurdish faction known as the YPG, which it considers a terrorist group, but which the U.S. armed as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces that battled the Islamic State.

At a news conference in London, Tillerson said while the U.S. is “concerned” about Turkey’s actions in northern Syria, “We recognize and fully appreciate Turkey’s legitimate right to protect its own citizens from terrorist elements that may be launching attacks against Turkish citizens and Turkish soil from Syria.”

Mattis also made conciliatory comments, noting Turkey “is the only NATO country with an active insurgency inside its borders. And Turkey has legitimate security concerns.”

NUCLEAR STRATEGY BRIEF: Senators on the Armed Services Committee will receive a classified briefing this morning on the Trump administration’s forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review, which is expected to be released this month. A pre-decisional draft of the NPR was recently published by the Huffington Post, which has fueled speculation that the administration will expand its arsenal of low-yield, “tactical” nuclear weapons, and lower the threshold under which they might be used.

The briefing is classified, so senators will likely remain tight-lipped about what they learn. But while some arms control advocates are characterizing the policy as a significant shift in U.S. nuclear strategy, others such as the Lexington Institutes’s Loren Thompson, who once taught nuclear strategy at Georgetown University, argue it’s not all that different from the Obama nuclear doctrine.

“The biggest difference between the Trump administration’s proposed nuclear strategy and that of the Obama administration is that Trump will fund nuclear forces vigorously whereas Obama did so only reluctantly,” Thompson writes in Forbes. “In other words, this is a nuclear posture that President Bill Clinton would have had little trouble supporting, and one that President Obama — a lifelong proponent of nuclear disarmament — would have only had a few quibbles with.”

GOOD TO KNOW: Hawaii Gov. David Ige says he could have quickly tweeted out word that the Jan. 13 ballistic missile alert was a false alarm — if only he could have remembered his own Twitter password. The Honolulu Star Advertiser reported yesterday that the fact the governor was locked out of his own Twitter account contributed to the 38-minute delay in correcting the false report that panicked residents of the island chain.

IRAN DEAL WORKING GROUP: A working group comprising American and European officials will soon begin to develop a “side agreement” to the Iran nuclear deal aimed at easing Trump’s complaints about the pact, according to Tillerson. “We will be discussing that through working groups beginning as early as next week and we’ll see what progress we can make,” Tillerson told reporters in London.

Tillerson and other U.S. and European officials — particularly in France, Germany and the United Kingdom — have limited time to come to an agreement before Trump reaches a deadline to renew sanctions on Iran that would violate the pact. The president says he will decline to waive the sanctions, absent a substantial toughening of the American posture toward the nuclear deal.

ACCELERATED EMBASSY MOVE: Vice President Mike Pence told Israel’s parliament yesterday that the U.S. will move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem next year, much faster than the previously announced timetable. “Jerusalem is Israel’s capital — and, as such, President Trump has directed the State Department to immediately begin initial preparations to move the United States embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,” Pence told Israel’s Knesset. “In the weeks ahead, our administration will advance its plan to open the United States Embassy in Jerusalem, and that United States Embassy will open before the end of next year.”

Tillerson had previously said an embassy move was “no earlier than three years out,” and called that timeline “pretty ambitious.”

PILOTS IDENTIFIED: The Army has identified the two pilots who died when their AH-64 Apache helicopter crashed around 1 a.m. Saturday at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Calif.

Killed were 1st Lt. Clayton R. Cullen, of Indiana, and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Kevin F. Burke, of California, both assigned to the 4th Combat Aviation Brigade, 4th Infantry Division.

McCAIN REMEMBERS: In a first-person account in Popular Mechanics, Sen. John McCain recalls the 1967 fire on the aircraft carrier USS Forrestal that almost claimed his life, and did result in the deaths of 134 sailors. “On that Saturday morning in July, as I sat in the cockpit of my A-4 preparing to take off, a rocket hit the fuel tank under my airplane — and the fire erupted. As I scrambled out of my aircraft and ran across the burning flight deck, I watched as sailors carried hoses and extinguishers toward the flames. A moment later, the first bomb exploded, and those brave men were gone.”

The article includes a reprint of a 1974 Popular Mechanics article “Fire on the Flight Deck” that recounts the events of that horrific day. McCain says the tragedy remains relevant today in the wake of the Navy’s recent at-sea disasters. “The 17 lives lost aboard the USS Fitzgerald and USS John S. McCain this past summer demonstrate the need for continued vigilance in training and safety standards,” McCain writes. “The tragedy aboard the Forrestal exposed significant shortfalls in the Navy’s safety posture. In response, the Navy instituted substantial changes to its training regime and standard operating procedures, resulting in a safer and more effective force.”

ICED IN: Where to spend the winter? Montreal? Or Jacksonville, Florida? Well for the crew of the newly-commissioned USS Little Rock, Mother Nature made the choice for them. The littoral combat ship is stuck at the pier in Montreal because of unexpectedly frigid temperatures and ice in the St. Lawrence Seaway.

The ship, which was commissioned Dec. 16 in Buffalo, N.Y., was supposed to cruise down to Florida to do its workups and crew qualification in the balmy breezes of Florida at Naval Station Mayport.

Instead, the Navy says they’ll do that in parkas in the bracing air of our northern neighbor. “Keeping the ship in Montreal until waterways are clear ensures the safety of the ship and crew, and will have limited impact on the ship’s operational schedule,” said Lt. Cmdr. Courtney Hillson, spokeswoman for Naval Surface Force Atlantic. “While in port, the crew of Little Rock will continue to focus on training, readiness and certifications.”

THE RUNDOWN

Defense & Aerospace Report: EXCLUSIVE: DoD’s Chewning on Risks to the US Defense-Industrial Base

Defense One: SPECIAL REPORT: In Shattered Raqqa, Top US General Calls for the World’s Help

Wall Street Journal: Turkey’s President Dismisses U.S. Call for Restraint Along Syria Border

AP: US orders extra air cargo screening for flights from Mideast

Bloomberg: SpaceX Keeps U.S. Air Force’s Confidence After Satellite’s Loss

USA Today: Tokyo holds missile evacuation drill amid threat from North Korea

CNN: Reasons for government shutdowns since 1976

War on the Rocks: The Next New Military Specialty Should Be Software Developers

New York Times: Philippines Arrests Explosives Expert Tied to Mideast Militants

Navy Times: The ‘Rattler’: This ultra-compact rifle provides concealed carry for special ops troops

USNI News: Navy Punishes Negligence At Sea But Rarely Secures Criminal Convictions

Task and Purpose: The 1st SFAB’s Afghan Deployment Is A Moment Of Truth For The Global War On Terror

Defense Tech: The Marine Corps Wants to Make Cyber More Like Special Ops

Army Times: Pentagon denies ISIS claim of killing U.S. soldier

Foreign Policy: Limited Strikes on North Korea Would Be an Unlimited Disaster

Defense One: Pentagon Deputy Tapped For Powerful New Management Role

Daily Beast: ‘The Seoul Syndrome’ and the ‘Pyongyang Olympics’? South Korea on Thin Ice

Task and Purpose: USM©: Inside The Marine Corps’ Heated Campaign To Protect Its Sacred Brand

Calendar

TUESDAY | JAN. 23

9:30 a.m. Senate Visitors Center 217. CLOSED briefing: Nuclear Posture Review. armed-services.senate.gov

11 a.m. Livestream only: Intelligence beyond 2018: A conversation with CIA Director Mike Pompeo. aei.org

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Turkey, the Kurds, and the Struggle for Order in the Middle East. hudson.org

12 p.m. A conversation with Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel. defenddemocracy.org

12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Affairs Issue Launch with Former Vice President Joe Biden. cfr.org

3:30 p.m. Senate Visitors Center 217. CLOSED briefing: Cyber Warfighting Policy. armed-services.senate.gov

WEDNESDAY | JAN. 24

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, chief of Army Reserve and commanding general.

10 a.m. Dirksen 342. ROUNDTABLE – Reauthorizing DHS: Positioning DHS to Address New and Emerging Threats to the Homeland. hsgac.senate.gov

2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. Responses to the North Korean Threat: A Conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz. hudson.org

3 p.m. Russell 222. Officer Personnel Management and the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980 with Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands; Vice Adm. Robert Burke; Lt. Gen. Gina Grosso; and Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco. armed-services.senate.gov

5:30 p.m. 1667 K St. NW. Book Talk American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump with author Hal Brands. csbaonline.org

THURSDAY | JAN. 25

8 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Undersea Warfare Threat Industry Day. ndia.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Discussion with Gen. Robert Neller, commandant of the Marine Corps. csis.org

9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Women and War: Securing a More Peaceful Future with Sherri Goodman, former deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security. wilsoncenter.org

10 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Global Challenges and U.S. National Security Strategy with former secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, and Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. Multi-domain battle: Converging concepts toward a joint solution with Gen. James Holmes, commander of the Air Force’s Air Combat Command. brookings.edu

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. Distributed Defense: New Operational Concepts for Integrated Air and Missile Defense with Will Roper, director of the Strategic Capabilities Office; Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, commander of Army Space and Missile Defense Command; and Brig. Gen. Clement Coward, director of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organization. csis.org

FRIDAY | JAN. 26

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Sustaining U.S. Leadership Against Nuclear Terrorism and Proliferation: Monitoring and Verification in the Digital Age. hudson.org

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Visit to the US and the UN – Assessment and Outlook. atlanticcouncil.org

MONDAY | JAN. 29

11:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A Conversation with U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen. wilsoncenter.org

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Maritime Strategy in a New Era of Great Power Competition. hudson.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia’s Electronic Warfare Capabilities to 2025. csis.org

1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Korean Unity at Pyeongchang: Prospects for Dealing with North Korea. wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | JAN. 30

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book Launch of Vietnam’s American War: A History. wilsoncenter.org