Both major political parties are pumping massive amounts of money into the race for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District, an expected bellwether of the national mood that is too close to call days before Tuesday’s election along the Eastern Shore.
Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil, among the most vulnerable House incumbents, is virtually tied in his rematch with Republican state Sen. Andy Harris, the newest independent poll shows.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has devoted nearly $1.5 million to the contest, according to election filings, and its
Republican counterpart expects to spend more than $800,000, placing it among the most expensive campaigns for the House.
Still, some analysts are hard-pressed to envision any Democrat surviving in a Republican-leaning district full of anti-incumbent fervor.
“If you asked me to put my mortgage on it, I’d have to go with Harris,” said Thomas Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. “But Kratovil’s ace in the hole is that he’s a shore guy. There are people who would be inclined to vote Republican, but may pull the trigger for Kratovil because he is the geographic candidate.”
The district, which stretches from Severna Park in Anne Arundel County to the tourist town of Ocean City, generally votes more Democratic along the Eastern Shore and more Republican in suburban Baltimore. Some locals told The Washington Examiner that Harris, who lives in Baltimore’s northern suburbs, is too much of an outsider to represent the district.
Kratovil, who lives in Stevensville, bested Harris by fewer than 3,000 votes two years ago, even while President Obama lost the district by 19 points.
But Harris said the Democratic spending revealed the party’s desperation to keep the seat.
“The major takeaway is that the incumbent congressman with several millions from outside groups is only polling at 40 percent,” he said.
Kratovil responded: “How in the world am I doing as well as I am given the nature of the district? How is the guy on the other side only at 40 percent?”
About 1,000 more registered area Republicans than Democrats have voted early, state data shows, and some political observers expect the enthusiasm gap to widen on Election Day.
“Prior to 2008, the seat was safely in the Republican fold,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It looks like it will revert to form in 2010.”
