Okay, not really. But overheard at last week’s Aerospace Industries Association Year-End Review & Forecast Luncheon: Julian Hellebrand, chief of staff for Cobham (whose guest I was), excitedly told me about his company’s myriad accomplishments this past year and the upcoming year’s challenges. But there are some products of which he knows only a limited amount because it’s classified-even from him. Example: Some sort of spectral imaging device that can detect human form with just a trace of hemoglobin and something about radiation (it was a loud party). So how is it used? Hellebrand couldn’t tell me and claimed even he didn’t know. Almost five years after the Department of Defense initially selected Lockheed Martin-Augusta Westland to build the next generation of Marine One presidential helicopters, the current president is still riding a Sikorsky (not that there’s anything wrong with that) and a newer version is nowhere in sight. First there were weight problems, then came the need for more power to lift that weight, questions about the cost (around $13 billion thus far), and more countermeasure demands coming from the government. According to one retired Army colonel, one of the latest requirements is for the helicopter to survive a nuclear blast. Seriously? I asked the colonel if Obama’s advisers had watched too many reruns of Independence Day. He clarified that the presidential chopper didn’t have to withstand a direct blast but that the instrument panels needed to survive the effects of a nuclear explosion. (It also needs to be able to travel far enough from the blast.) As for the year-end review and forecast itself, AIA president Marion Blakey was remarkably upbeat despite the recession. Aerospace industry sales had risen from 2008 to 2009 ($205.7 billion to $214.1 billion). The bulk of those sales came from the commercial aircraft sector ($82.5 billion), followed by military ($61.7 billion). Missile production accounted for $14.8 billion. On the other hand, aspects such as shipments and orders have declined, as has employment in the aerospace industry, which currently stands at 641,100 jobs. (Interestingly, the highpoint for employment in this sector was in 1998-741,100-and the lowpoint came in 2003-587,100.) Blakey was especially thrilled about the maiden voyage of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner (following a two-year delay) and held up the front-page of the Wall Street Journal, which gave it generous coverage. But it’s a competitive crowd here, so you can’t expect the attendees to erupt in raucous applause. (The Lockheed Martin table behind me certainly didn’t give them a standing ovation. And as one independent analyst cynically told me, “Better late than never.”) But who knows, maybe at next year’s luncheon, Ms. Blakey will be holding up a front-page story about the new Marine One, outifitted with an extra engine, nuclear blast shields, a wave motion gun, and a flux capacitor.
