If he is to be deterred, Vladimir Putin must believe that the costs of a prospective action will be far outweighed by its benefits.
Russia may soon launch a new offensive against Ukraine. Bloomberg reports that the United States and its European allies are readying new sanctions in the event that Russia uses prepositioned forces to attack Ukraine.
This sanctions threat is very not serious.
Per Bloomberg, the planning of mere sanctions “is at an early stage even within the U.S., and would require more discussions before seeking the support of other countries.” Moreover, the European Union “assigned its foreign affairs service to craft options earlier this year to respond to any further Russian moves but those efforts stalled …” We are told that this “effort is also aimed at steering Putin away from further aggression on Ukraine by making clear there would be a strong and coordinated response … They declined to specify what might be included … A White House spokesperson declined to comment.”
The suppurating hesitation —”planning is at an early stage,” “more discussions,” “efforts stalled,” “declined to specify,” “declined to comment” — speaks louder than any sanctions could.
The European Union doesn’t even try to hide its timidity. That Josep Borrell remains its foreign policy chief says everything you need to know about the political bloc’s unseriousness about confronting Russia. Germany might as well join Russia’s anti-NATO Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Expect Putin to view this effort with his characteristic mix of black Russian humor, scorn, and sarcasm.
The sad truth is that Ukraine stands largely alone. Its courageous light infantry forces stand a lonely watch in the trenches and amid the rubble of southeastern Ukraine’s front line.
While the Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s provision of lethal arms and military equipment to Ukraine, it has been reluctant to take bolder steps to deter Putin. Biden has been unwilling to deploy U.S. Navy vessels in direct challenge of Russian-occupied Crimea. The White House’s appeasement of Putin-enabled ransomware attacks, energy blackmail, and Belarusian border games speaks to a strategy of weakness against Russia.
Unfortunately, Putin and his inner circle have a voracious appetite for weakness.
They do, however, respect strength. The Kremlin would, for example, respect the new deployment of even a small number of U.S. military personnel to Kyiv. It would respect U.S. drone overflights of Crimea (which, remember, is Ukrainian territory). It would respect specific sanctions threats against Gazprom and its subsidiaries. It would respect sanctions threats against Russian rare-earth mineral exports. It would respect threats to restrict the western financial access of Putin’s top oligarchs, such as Alisher Usmanov, Roman Abramovich, Petr Aven, and Mikhail Fridman.
But the Biden administration’s current Ukraine deterrence strategy is utterly unserious. Indeed, it’s an invitation for Putin to go for the jugular.
If he does so, Biden will have no one to blame but himself.
