Republicans have won control of the House of Representatives. They have just secured their 218th seat, ending four years in the minority.
The votes in seven races are still being counted, and the GOP total is expected to expand to 221 seats, but this is still a historically narrow majority over the ousted Democrats, which will make running the lower chamber difficult for its new masters.
Republicans did not sweep into power in a “red tsunami,” with dozens of competitive races cutting in Democrats’ favor, but the GOP clinched enough seats to retake the House on Wednesday after a weeklong ballot-counting process that saw their margin of victory dwindle to the single digits.
Democrats’ razor-thin control of the chamber meant the Republicans needed to pick up just five seats.
Saddled with 40-year-high inflation and a national crime wave, Democrats faced political headwinds as the party in power, and analysts in the lead-up to Election Day projected they would lose 15 to 30 seats.
Yet Democrats outperformed expectations, holding or flipping seats from Virginia to Nevada. In the aftermath, Republicans blamed Donald Trump and the candidates the former president endorsed as a “drag” on the GOP ticket. Democrats credited their promises to protect abortion access after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.
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There were some silver linings for Republicans. The party had a strong showing in Florida and New York and even unseated one of the most powerful Democrats in the lower chamber: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of House Democrats’ campaign arm.
Speaking at an election night party shortly after 2 a.m., Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) touted the defeat of Maloney and declared victory for Republicans: “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority.”
That majority failed to materialize Wednesday morning, however, and wouldn’t for days as mail-in balloting delayed election results in states out West. Once it did arrive, McCarthy’s run for House speaker was already in jeopardy.
Had Republicans walked away with a sizable majority, McCarthy was expected to win the speaker’s gavel comfortably. Instead, with no votes to spare, McCarthy will likely be forced to acquiesce to at least some demands from the hard-line Freedom Caucus and, should he become speaker, govern to the right as he cobbles together support for his legislative agenda.
The caucus, which derailed his first speakership bid in 2015, is demanding that McCarthy agree to rules changes that would diminish his power next year, and members are threatening to withhold their votes unless McCarthy makes concessions. During House GOP leadership elections held on Tuesday, the minority leader received 188 votes in favor of his speakership bid, while more than 30 Republicans voted for challenger Andy Biggs (R-AZ).
McCarthy will need at least 218 votes on Jan. 3, when the new Congress holds a floor vote for speaker.
Democrats will conduct leadership elections following the Thanksgiving recess. The biggest question is whether Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the current speaker, retires now that the party has lost control of the House, possibly paving the way for a new generation of Democratic leadership.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has been floated as a possible candidate to replace her as the top House Democrat, as have Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and Jim Clyburn (D-SC).
Pelosi applauded Democrats’ midterm performance on Sunday, telling CNN, “I’m very proud of our Democratic candidates, both the incumbents seeking reelection and our red to blue, our challengers. They never took any guidance from those who would say, ‘This is over, Democrats can’t win because history says.’ That conventional wisdom was conventional, and it certainly wasn’t wisdom.”
McCarthy has promised to address what the GOP says are the failures of President Joe Biden and his Cabinet in a Republican majority next year.
“What we’re really going to have to do here is build an economy that’s strong, tackle this inflation, become energy independent so you can afford to fill up your tank and still have money left for food,” McCarthy said this month on Fox News.
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House Republicans have promised “accountability” for the Biden administration and are expected to investigate everything from the “politicization and bias at the FBI” to the business dealings of the president’s son, Hunter Biden.
The GOP win on Tuesday still leaves Democrats two months to pass legislation in the lame-duck session of Congress. The Jan. 6 committee investigating the Capitol riot is winding down its efforts and is planning to issue a final report sometime after the midterm elections.
