Today, Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is beginning an effort to boost support for Barack Obama in Southern states, but many think he might be just whistling Dixie.
Obama faces a steep uphill climb in the South, particularly in places like Tennessee and Mississippi. And the prospects of Southern congressional candidates could hinge on how well Obama fares on the ballot in those states.
“The prospect of Obama winning four or five of the old Confederate states is probably unrealistic,” said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer.
Geer said Obama’s best chance at a Southern victory lies in Virginia.
“Virginia is clearly in play,” said Rep. Robert Scott, a Democrat who has represented the Richmond-Hampton Roads area since 1992. Among the reasons, he said, is “a very effective voter registration drive that will eliminate the gap” Democrats were not able to overcome in 2004.
Dean is embarking today on a bus trip from George Bush’s hometown of Crawford, Texas, to Austin. On Friday he will travel to New Orleans and Mississippi. Obama is likely to lose all three of these states in November, experts
believe.
Dean and Obama aides nonetheless insist the South is in play, particularly if they are successful in registering large numbers of black voters, who will overwhelmingly choose Obama.
Rep. Gene Taylor, a Mississippi Democrat, acknowledged: “It’s going to be hard” for Obama to win Mississippi, even though a record black turnout is expected. About 36 percent of the state’s voters are black.
“Unfortunately, there is going to be a backlash,” Taylor said. “There are going to be some people who can’t vote for a Democrat, or for a black candidate. It’s just a fact.”
Obama won Mississippi’s Democratic primary, but the exit polls were ominous for the Illinois senator. White voters overwhelmingly picked rival Hillary Clinton, 72 percent to 21 percent.
Taylor said Obama could either help or hurt the prospects of former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who is battling Roger Wicker for the Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott. Wicker was appointed by the governor to fill the vacancy this year but he must compete against Musgrove for a full term.
“If Obama does a good enough job, he may not win Mississippi, but he may help Musgrove win,” Taylor said. “On the flip side, if what he says or does becomes a burden in the Deep South, it could hurt some Democratic candidates badly.”
