The question from the CBS/New York Times poll: “From what you know about the U.S. involvement in Iraq, how much longer would you be willing to have large numbers of U.S. troops remain in Iraq – less than a year, one to two years, two to five years or longer than five years?” There’s a couple of ways to look at this, but it’s startling how little support there is for an immediate withdrawal. There’s almost no one who thinks it would be a good idea to pull American troops out of Iraq as soon as possible. On the other hand, there’s fairly broad support for pulling troops out within the year, but the question asks whether people want “large numbers” of U.S. troops to remain in Iraq. I think even the president doesn’t want “large numbers” of troops in Iraq by this time next year. And as the Pentagon begins drawing down troops, as many as 30,000 by the summer and more to follow, that may satisfy a substantial portion of the respondents who answered “less than a year.” Also, it’s pretty striking how much support there is for a longer commitment of “large numbers” of U.S. troops. If you add up the numbers for those who responded from one to two years to as long as it takes, you’re bumping up against 50 percent. There’s clearly a great deal of support among the public for a sustained mission in Iraq. If casualties remain relatively low, and if troops can be withdrawn by 25 to 50 percent over the next year, there’s no reason to think that this graph couldn’t show the same numbers next Christmas, with nearly half of Americans saying that they would be willing to have “large numbers” of American troops in Iraq for one more year–except by then “large numbers” might mean 100,000, and reducing that by half again might suffice for an adequate drawdown. HT: Matt Yglesias
