President Trump’s anticipated Senate trial will test swing-state centrists. Still, the White House and conservative allies are optimistic that there will be unity among Republicans in a vote to acquit Trump.
Trump’s probable impeachment will be followed by a January trial for two articles of impeachment: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Acquittal is all but certain, with 20 Republican votes needed to remove him from office. Trump defenders say they are confident centrist Republicans have clear lines emerging to justify their votes.
“I don’t see the likelihood that you will have many defections on the Republican side, and I think you might have some Democrats vote against these articles of impeachment,” said former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, a Mississippi Republican, who voted in the impeachment cases of both Richard Nixon in 1974 and Bill Clinton in 1998.
Nixon resigned after almost half of the Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to approve articles of impeachment connected to his cover-up of a break-in at Democratic offices. But House Republicans and senators have not deserted Trump in droves.
Although Trump’s allies have offered many lines of defense, his more forceful defenders have coalesced around arguing that Trump’s push for Ukraine to investigate Democrats was a justifiable effort to combat corruption. Sens. John Kennedy of Louisiana, Ted Cruz of Texas, and others have said so.
But a softer defense was articulated by GOP House Judiciary Committee expert Jonathan Turley, a law professor who said impeachable conduct might be proven but that Democrats’ haste prevented enough evidence development to prove Trump withheld aid to damage his political rivals.
Senate centrists up for reelection include Martha McSally of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, and Joni Ernst of Iowa. They are seen as most at-risk in the vote. Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Mitt Romney of Utah are also considered potentially unsettled jurors.
“The people in the Senate that we had to be concerned about are not going to be a problem because they are not on board on what the Democrats are doing,” said a Republican operative. “I think the Romneys of the world are going to say, ‘There are a lot of things we don’t like about Donald Trump, but we don’t upend our democracy because of that.'”
During the Clinton impeachment, nine Senate Republicans voted to acquit him on at least one count. Clinton was impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice related to testimony he gave before a federal judge and grand jury over his relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, stemming from the sexual harassment suit Clinton faced from Paula Jones. He was decisively acquitted.
Among former Republican lawmakers are Trump critics urging an open mind.
“Moderate Republicans have been doing their best to pour oil on troubled waters, in hopes the president would grow into the role,” said former Sen. Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire. “But Trump sees his role as King Unaccountable, rolling over the Constitution and the rule of law. ‘Off with his crown’ should be the GOP response, at long last.”
But Lott said that the Democrats’ process makes it unlikely there will be much ranks-breaking.
“They are rushing [impeachment], and I do think that undermines the effectiveness of their case,” Lott said.
The Watergate investigation proceeded much more slowly. Two years after the break-in of a Democratic office, Republicans fractured when damning evidence surfaced. Clinton’s impeachment followed an independent prosecutor’s report and an election in which his fate was a significant issue.
Lott said Democrats had not litigated Trump’s invocation of executive privilege, undermining their case that he obstructed Congress, while not acquiring significant evidence on his alleged abuse of power.
“One of the emerging things is that the Democrats clearly haven’t proven their case,” Lott said. “They came up with just two articles, and both of them are pretty flimsy. And obviously, there were problems with Ukraine and corruption in the government, and the president and others had a right to try to get them to root that out.”
