There are 15 days to go until the Iowa caucuses. In December and November I looked at early polls from 2012 and 2008 and showed that they weren’t great at predicting who would actually win in Iowa, in New Hampshire or the nomination. Now that we’re much closer to the primaries, are the polls any better than they were a month or two months ago? Let’s find out:
2011, Republican national polls: On Dec. 19, 2011, 15 days before the 2012 Iowa caucuses, Newt Gingrich led national polling with a 4.5 point advantage over Mitt Romney. In the chaotic primary, Gingrich would lose the lead the day after Iowa and retake it later in January before losing it for good in early February. Romney did not retake the lead for good until the final day of February, just before Super Tuesday. Gingrich eventually won the South Carolina and Georgia primaries but fell well short of winning the nomination.
2011, Iowa GOP caucus: With 15 days to go until Iowa, Ron Paul led the state’s polls. He had just taken the lead from a plummeting Gingrich, and Romney was less than two points behind. Paul still held the lead less than a week before voting, but finished in third, about three points behind Romney and Rick Santorum. Santorum, the eventual winner, had just 6 percent support and sat in sixth place with 15 days left.
2011, New Hampshire GOP primary: Sometimes the early polls get it right. On Dec. 19, 2011, Romney led by 13 points over Gingrich. Romney eventually won by more than 16 points. In fact, Romney led every single New Hampshire poll taken that cycle, starting in April 2011.
2008, GOP national polls: On Dec. 19, 2007, 15 days before the 2008 Iowa caucuses Rudy Giuliani still held a two-point lead in national GOP primary polls. John McCain, the eventual nominee, sat back in fourth place with about 13 percent support. Giuliani had 22 percent support that day, but failed to win any statewide primaries or caucuses. Giuliani held the lead until a few days after the Iowa caucuses, when Mike Huckabee briefly took the lead before McCain took over for good just after New Hampshire.
2008, Iowa GOP caucus: With 15 days before voting, Mike Huckabee already led by more than five points over Romney. The lead would dwindle into a near-tie by Election Day, but Huckabee emerged the victor by nearly 10 points. John McCain was fifth in Iowa voting on Dec. 19, 2007 and finished in fourth, but still managed to win the nomination.
2008, New Hampshire GOP primary: On Dec. 19, 2007, Mitt Romney led New Hampshire polls by 11 points. John McCain was in second place, with 21 percent support. McCain would eventually win the primary by 5.5 points, and later the nomination. McCain’s polling surge had begun approximately two weeks earlier.
2008, Democratic national polls: Hillary Clinton had a firm, double-digit lead in national Democratic polls. She continued to lead national polls well into February, after early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina had voted. Despite that, Clinton failed to win the party nomination.
2008, Iowa Democratic caucus: On Dec. 19, 2007, Barack Obama led Iowa polls by just over 3 percent. He would later lose that lead briefly to Clinton but end polling in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton. Obama emerged the victor in Iowa with 37.5 percent of the vote. John Edwards and Clinton were close, but Clinton finished in third with 29.4 percent.
2008, New Hampshire Democratic primary: Clinton had led New Hampshire polling for the entire campaign on Dec. 19, 2007. That day she held a six-point lead over Obama, with Obama closing in and Clinton falling. After losing Iowa, Clinton would fall behind in the polls to Obama. Still, she eventually won the New Hampshire primary by 2.6 points.
Polls 15 days before Iowa failed the predict the eventual winner in most (just four out of nine) of the contests listed above. In three of those four, the polls showed a lead change with less than two weeks to go. That’s better than the last time I checked early polls, with 34 days left before Iowa. Still, it shows that even with Election Day so close, it might not be smart to trust the polls.
If you still want to know who’s winning the early polls in 2016, Donald Trump leads national GOP polls by about 15 points and New Hampshire polls by about 18 points. Iowa polls show a virtual tie between Trump and Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton leads national Democratic polls by about nine points and Iowa polls by about four points. Bernie Sanders leads New Hampshire polls by about six points.
Keep in mind, no Republican and only one Democrat (Bill Clinton) has ever won their party’s nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire (in the 15 nomination cycles under the modern primary system used beginning in 1976). Then again, there’s a first, or second, time for everything.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
