While the Democrats reflect and Secretary Hillary Clinton wanders around the wilderness (literally), here are some observations for the establishment of both parties, the #NeverTrumpers, and those still in shock—i.e. the vast majority of Beltway insiders who somehow overlooked “flyover country” and never saw Trump’s victory as even a remote possibility. President-elect Donald Trump basically threw out the rule book and almost every bit of conventional wisdom it contained—both about elections in general and himself specifically.
1. Money.
While the final numbers through Election Day have yet to be released, Hillary Clinton outspent the billionaire Donald Trump in ads, staffers, electoral votes, and general campaign overhead costs by a factor of at least two—and in some cases three. This is ironic, given liberals’ complaining of the Supreme Court’s Citizen’s United ruling, Hillary’s use of big money donors and extravagant fundraisers, and the Clinton Foundation’s pay-to-play schemes. There are a lot of deep-pocketed people, governments, and influential people within those governments who probably want a refund.
2. The ground game.
Everyone kept insisting that Trump didn’t have a ground game or an organized get out the vote effort in key swing states. He just held widely attended rallies, and those were starting to look eerily similar to Sarah Palin’s rallies and Mitt Romney’s rallies in 2008 and 2012, respectively. There was a lot of anecdotal evidence out there, like Tim Kaine’s three-person rally in Florida and Hillary’s need to bring in celebrities for her rallies, but Trump’s ground game was no match for Hillary’s.
In reality, Trump and other Republican allies had a ground game at the state level and was working closely with Reince Priebus and the RNC.
3. The mainstream media.
Trump came out swinging at the outset at the mainstream media—an easy target whose popularity rating is about the same or lower than Congress. He painted the media as the enemy.
In some ways, he overcame the media. Some people knew him from his days on NBC’s The Apprentice—a popular reality show that reached an audience not typically in the GOP’s sights. He was known on the show for being tough, but fair to all contestants, regardless of gender, race, religion, sexual orientation, etc. He judged them solely on their merits.
In other ways, Trump overcame the media—which, as was demonstrated in some of the WikiLeaks emails, was outright colluding against him. Only two major newspapers endorsed him. Trump relied heavily on free social media and the media’s attention on him.
And finally, he used the media to his advantage. While the mainstream media thought they were turning people against Trump, they were giving him a lot of free airtime. He knew the one rule that all media outlets are governed by—ratings—and he gave them all a lot of them, be it in the primary debates, the election debates, or just general coverage.
4. Trump would be a drag on down-ballot races.
The GOP establishment was worried that Trump would cause the party to lose control of the Senate, and possibly the House. Instead, Republicans rode his coattails. House speaker Paul Ryan even acknowledged this after the election. “He pulled off… one of the most impressive political feats I have seen in my lifetime,” Ryan said on Special Report with Bret Baier.
In most of the crucial races, anyone that allied with Trump won. Several key candidates that Democrats linked with Trump in ads also won. But some that went out of the way distance themselves from Trump lost, like Kelly Ayotte.
5. Only non-college whites would vote for Trump.
Basically, everyone on the coasts believed that Trump’s coalition was comprised mainly of blue-collar white workers, which is a euphemism for “rednecks in flyover country.” Exit polls show that this just isn’t true—and we all know that if anything, exit polls skew left.
The exit poll on Election Day isn’t a small sample size like other polls leading up to Election Day—it’s typically 24,000 to 25,000 people. Of those who said the candidate who “can bring change” is the candidate quality that mattered most (39 percent), a whopping 83 percent in that category voted for Trump. This is the irony of all ironies and the most vociferous repudiation of Obama. Who can forget his infamous campaign slogan?
White evangelicals voted for Trump by a margin of 81 percent to Hillary’s 16 percent, and he garnered 53 percent support among white women, another group that Trump was supposed to lose. Nine in ten Republicans voted for Trump, a second threshold few thought he would achieve. Trump beat Hillary among suburban voters—50 to 45 percent—as well.
6. The Obama coalition was Hillary’s too.
So much for sharing, #Imwithher, celebrity endorsements, Hillary’s “deplorables” comment, and the general vitriol thrown at Trump by the left (labels like racist, bigot, sexist, misogynist, etc.). Females, minorities, independents, and young people did not come out for Hillary like they did for Obama.
About the same percentage of young people showed up in 2012 and 2016, and while Trump’s support among them was about the same as Romney’s (within one percentage point), Hillary’s support among the 18-24 year old voting bloc dipped by four points from Obama, and by seven points in the 25-29 age group. Trump beat Hillary among independents by 6 points (48 to 42 percent).
Trump also got 29 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote, 29 percent of the Asian vote, and 8 percent of the black vote—all slight improvements over Romney in 2012.
As the Wall Street Journal‘s Jason Riley wrote from Harlem:
Ironically, Hillary surrounded herself with mostly male surrogates, save for Huma Abedin. Trump, on the other hand, in his business and on his campaign, surrounds himself with women. Trump’s daughter Ivanka has as much, if not more, power than his sons do in their family business. Kellyanne Conway is the first female to run and win a presidential campaign. Even though Olivia Pope got a Republican elected twice on the show Scandal, I don’t think Kerry Washington or Shonda Rhimes would have called this one.
7. Someone who has never held political office before has no shot at the presidency.
This was said of Herman Cain in 2012 and Ben Carson this time. But Trump got the largest number of Republican primary voters in history. He also got the largest number of Electoral College votes among Republicans in a few generations.
8. The so-called “Blue Wall” was the Great Wall of China.
Hillary’s Blue Wall had more cracks in it than the San Andreas fault. The fissures became more apparent as Election Night dragged on, but they were invisible to almost everyone until about 7 pm on November 8, when races that Hillary should have won easily were tighter than expected.
Pennsylvania and Michigan went red for the first time since 1988 and Wisconsin since 1984. While most polls had Trump close or within the margin of error in some of these states, there was sort of a reverse “Wilder effect” happening among Trump supporters. They were hard to poll, and some were reluctant to admit their support for Trump, especially in light of vandalism and attacks that had been largely ignored by the media. One Muslim female immigrant who expressed support for Trump in a Washington Post opinion piece came under fire from friends and the general public alike. One small polling outfit, the Trafalgar Group, found a way around this by asking people who they thought their neighbor was supporting. The group predicted Trump victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
9. Trump would decimate the Republican Party.
Everyone thought Trump would lose and would break the Republican party, setting it back for many election cycles. Instead, it is Democrats who are in disarray. They’ve even admitted they have a much more shallow, less diverse bench of potential future candidates and party leaders (i.e. old white people). Even on the state level, Republicans have gained almost 1,000 seats during Obama’s tenure.
Trump has more of a mandate than any Republican in recent history. He has significant majorities of both houses of Congress, and his Supreme Court nominees during his tenure in office will tilt the bench more to the right than it’s been in decades. On paper, there is no divided government. To quote Obama just three days after taking office, “Elections have consequences, and at the end of the day, I won.”
One could argue that while Trump obviously isn’t a conservative, and while populism can veer into liberal territory if unchecked, Trump strengthened the party, as Fred Barnes wrote.
Both parties were becoming modern day versions of Rockefeller elites, and this election showed that Trump tapped into a voting bloc that had been forgotten—by everyone. It is not surprising that his victory stunned and eluded the elites on both coasts and inside the Beltway.
Inside the Beltway, the economy is booming. I often wonder what tourists think when they travel to our nation’s capital and see all the construction, multi-million dollar condos, and expensive restaurants with months-long waiting lists. Meanwhile, their hometowns are boarded up. Do they realize the largess of the DC metro area—which has some of the richest counties in the country—is all thanks to their taxpayer contributions?
10. Trump is an ignorant buffoon.
The same was said of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush (remember Reagan’s naps and Bush’s grammar?). Now while Trump did attract Reagan Democrats in the Rust Belt, Dubya is no Reagan, and neither is Trump. But Trump had a smart strategy and surrounded himself with a smart team. He also knows what he doesn’t know, readily admits that, and seeks the counsel of those who do.
Trump is known for valuing loyalty. Reince Priebus wouldn’t be chief of staff if he were disloyal. Trump’s team let the media think and write whatever they wanted about the RNC, Priebus, and any fractures, real or imagined. This was smart for a few reasons: it separated Trump from the establishment in an anti-establishment year; it painted Trump as the underdog; it made it seem as though he and the supposed intra-party fighting equated to a lack of a ground game, despite the reality; and it caused Democrats to let their guard down and feel that Hillary had this election all sewn up. Trump doesn’t show his hand, and whether you like him or not, not putting all your cards on the table is smart—in politics, in diplomacy, in business, and of course, in poker.
11. Trump has no core philosophy.
Trump is more of a realist and a pragmatist than anything. He is not a conservative, but he has never pretended to be. But he can and has already started to bridge the divide among neoconservatives, traditional conservatives, paleoconservatives, libertarians, fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, and the religious right.
To the hawks: Trump will not “lead from behind” or go on a global apology tour. “Make America Great Again” is basically, in layman’s terms on the foreign policy front, a full-throttled endorsement of the hegemonic stability theory (America embracing its role as a superpower provides stability to the rest of the world, and puts our allies at ease). After eight years of Obama, our allies can throw away the Pepto Bismol. America is the greatest, strongest nation on the planet, and that is not something Trump will shirk from or apologize for, which should please the neocons and hawks. Unlike Obama, he won’t reject the advice of his generals or show a general disdain for the military or use of force when necessary.
Trump will put conservative justices on the court, which should satisfy the religious right, social conservatives, pro-life groups, pro-gun rights groups, and right-to-work advocates (and even some union members, which isn’t music to the ears of national labor leaders).
Trump will work with Paul Ryan and the Hill to repeal and replace Obamacare, which will even have the libertarians shouting, “Hallelujah!”
On the economy, he will actually get the Keystone XL pipeline built. He will lower tax rates and repatriate the approximately $2 trillion sitting overseas. The stock market futures took a steep dive as the poll results came in, but the market quickly rebounded (and has since hit historic highs) once it realized what a Trump presidency could mean for the economy.
12. Trump would surround himself with outsiders who have no clue about running the government.
Instead, Trump has assembled a team of great diversity—from party insiders such as Reince Priebus to Silicon Valley tycoons like Peter Thiel. Names such as Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Jeff Sessions, Steve Moore, Larry Kudlow, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Henry Kissinger, Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley, and others have been advising the campaign and have been rumored candidates for various posts or have already been given slots in the Trump administration.
Some of them have been by his side from the beginning. Some have been very critical of him and he of them—showing that he can put his personal feelings aside to put the person he feels best qualified for the job in place.
Not everyone in the country will agree with everything he will do, but I doubt even everyone on his team will. The Republicans are the ones with the Big Tent. At least Trump has assembled a diverse team that will offer up different viewpoints. Obama famously surrounds himself with “yes” men—intellectuals and those in academia who think just like him.
This election will be one for the history books. Only one piece of conventional wisdom held true: no party has held the White House for three consecutive terms in modern history, except for Reagan and George H. W. Bush.
But conventional wisdom is, for the most part, an illusion. It’s only true until someone breaks it. Trump’s campaign broke all the conventional rules, but it worked, despite all the forces against him. This can safely be called a “wave” election, and also a “climate change” election—one that hit the establishment on both sides like a tsunami, earthquake, and tornado that no one saw coming.
