On Morning Joe today, Chuck Todd made a big deal of pointing out that people should stop pretending Michigan will be a battleground state in 2012. I agree. But this should not be considered news.
As the map above charting what the election would look like if Obama only carried states where he had a net positive approval in 2011 shows, Romney does not need Michigan to secure a 323 to 215 electoral college blow out. Obama’s approval rating in Michigan for 2011 was a strong 48 percent approve to 44 percent disapprove. If Obama can’t win there he can’t win anywhere.
Approval rating is not a perfect predictor of any head-to-head matchup (especially data that will be over a year old by the time the election rolls around), but its been safe to cross out Michigan as a possible Republican pick up for months now.
