MIAMI — For three student Republican leaders at the college where Sen. Marco Rubio teaches a political science class, the decision was fairly simple.
Once the Florida Republican entered the presidential contest, there was virtually no other candidate that Rey Anthony, 19, Alex Becourt, 19, or Eric Diaz-Padron, 20, could imagine supporting. This despite having very good things to say about former two-term Florida governor Jeb Bush and the other White House candidate of Cuban extraction gunning, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
Perhaps their affinity for Rubio stems from Florida International University’s proximity to West Miami, the senator’s hometown and where he still lives with his wife and four children. Perhaps it’s because they share with Rubio a Cuban heritage shaped by the politics of exile and antipathy to the Fidel Castro dictatorship. Perhaps it’s Rubio’s relative youth — he’ll be 44 in June — that allows them to see in him their future. It may be that they’ve all taken his class.
The evolving political and generational landscape of South Florida’s Cuban-American community can make for some complicated politics — a fact magnified by having both Bush and Rubio as presidential contenders — but that tension was not evident as these three young Republicans sat for a roundtable discussion with the Washington Examiner at FIU, a majority minority school that grants more degrees to Hispanics than any university in America.
“We all like Ted; we all like Jeb. But I think at the end of the day, who’s the person that we see most, that we’re most familiar with, the person that talks like us — that can relate to us, that can relate to young people? And I think that’s Sen. Rubio,” Anthony, a junior political science major, said just hours before the senator announced for president.
“Seeing my grandparents see two descendants of Cuban exiles [run for president] — it fills them with joy. It’s unbelievable,” added Becourt, a sophomore political science major who was officially undecided but leaning toward Rubio. “I eventually want to pursue a political career and they’re great role models, they’re great trailblazers for the Cuban exile community.”
If the 62-year-old Bush, who is not yet an official candidate, and Rubio are still heading into Florida’s March 2016 GOP primary, the battle for southern Florida’s Cuban-American vote could prove more competitive than the three FIU college Republicans’ enthusiasm for Rubio would suggest.
Like Rubio, Bush is based in Miami, and he forged deep connections with Cuban-American Republicans over his two-plus decades in Florida politics and eight years as governor. The two Republicans have long ties to each other — Bush was governor when Rubio was speaker of the state House of Representatives — and they are in lockstep in opposition to President Obama’s Cuba détente and call to lift the 53-year-old embargo against the Castro dictatorship.
State Rep. Jeanette Nunez backs Rubio over Bush. But the Cuban-American lawmaker, who served as a legislative aide in Tallahassee when Rubio was a state representative, said it would be incorrect to assume that Hispanics who share the senator’s heritage are automatic votes for him over Bush. Like voters of other backgrounds, Cuban-Americans are motivated by a host of issues. Ethnic pride is going to be a factor in their choice, but not determinative.
“So it’s not as easy to say all Cubans support Marco because he’s a Cuban,” said Nunez, 42, who represents northern Miami-Dade County. “There’s a lot of sophistication to the Cuban-American vote.”
Florida’s Cuban-American community is less Republican than it once was. The younger generation is more open to voting Democrat, and young Cuban-Americans reacted positively toward Obama’s new policy of engagement with Cuban strongman Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother. Obama and Raul Castro shook hands and participated in a historic dialogue this month during a Latin American summit in Panama.
Republicans still hold a majority among Cuban-Americans in South Florida, however. And the older generation, who remain staunch GOP voters and are more likely to show up at the polls than younger Cuban-Americans, could help Rubio win this voting bloc if he squares off with Bush in a presidential primary. Bush and Rubio aren’t likely to differ much on policy, making the choice between the two more emotional than substantive.
The potential wild card in a Florida GOP primary is Cruz.
The Texan’s father was born in Cuba, and he shares Rubio’s heritage as a first-generation American born to a parent who fled Castro’s dictatorship (Cruz’ Irish-American mother was born and raised in Delaware.) He speaks often about how this heritage shaped his political upbringing, as does Rubio, whose Cuba-born mother and father came to Miami from the island in search of a freedom and economic opportunity.
Joe Uscinski, an associate professor of political science at the University of Miami, doesn’t expect Cruz to make too much of an impact in the competition for the Cuban-American vote in South Florida. But he could peel off just enough votes to impact the broader battle for first place in the Sunshine State GOP primary. Meanwhile, Uscinski said that opposing Obama’s Cuba policy, a position on which Bush, Cruz and Rubio agree, is smart primary politics.
“Cubans are an important group to get on your side in a Republican primary in Florida because the ones who tend to be the most Republican are older, and so they tend to turn out to vote,” he said. “The generation of younger Cubans turn out at lower rates and are not quite as Republican.”
