Happy 2019! Here are three games you should enjoy to kick off your new year.
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 11 LSU (9-3) vs. No. 8 UCF (12-0) — Tuesday, Jan. 1, at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN
Many people once again believe that Central Florida was snubbed by the College Football Playoff committee and that the system is rigged against them. This is the second straight year that the Knights have gone undefeated entering their bowl game. They beat Auburn in their bowl game last year to finish the season unbeaten and and proclaimed themselves “national champions.”
UCF’s strength of schedule was lacking and will continue to be lacking until it schedules tougher out-of-conference opponents. Expanding the playoff to eight teams would also have helped UCF, but until that happens, the Knights will continue to get left out in the cold.
It’ll get another crack at the SEC this year in the Fiesta Bowl, but its star quarterback, McKenzie Milton, went down with a season-ending injury late in the year. Darriel Mack Jr. now has to get ready for one of the country’s most elite defenses. He won MVP honors after leading the Knights to a comeback win in the conference championship game against Memphis, so he has the goods, but can he rise to the occasion again in just his third career start?
LSU’s Devin White became the first player in school history to win the Dick Butkus Award, given annually to the nation’s top linebacker. White could have opted to skip the bowl game and focus on the NFL draft, but he decided to play, and that is huge for the Tigers. He is the leader and heart and soul of that LSU defense.
However, LSU will not have its top two cornerbacks available for the game. Greedy Williams, one of the best corners in the nation, is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL draft, and Kristian Fulton had surgery to fix an ankle injury. If I’m UCF, I’m going to air it out and test LSU’s corners. The Knights have a very athletic group at wideout, and LSU will have its hands full with them.
The Tigers had three wins against top-10 teams in the regular season, beat ranked Mississippi State, and arguably should have beaten ranked Texas A&M in a game that ended up going into seven overtimes that they lost 74-72. The formula for LSU has been remarkably simple: Run the ball and play great defense.
Nick Brossette isn’t Leonard Fournette by any stretch, but he’s a solid runner who gets stronger as the game goes along. One of my favorite stats on Brossette is that he averages more yards per carry in the fourth quarter this season (5.0) than he does in the any of the other three. He’s less than 80 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season, and he has run for 14 touchdowns. Expect to see LSU pound the rock and try to bully UCF’s defensive line.
The Line: LSU (-7.5)
My Pick: If Milton was playing, I’d be picking UCF. Since he’s not, I’m going with the Tigers to win and cover based on their overall athleticism, great defense, and powerful run game.
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 9 Washington (10-3) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (12-1) — Tuesday, Jan. 1, at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN
Some of the greatest players in both Washington and Ohio State school history will take the field for the final time in the “Grandaddy of ‘Em All,” the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins would probably have won the Heisman in almost any year if he didn’t have to face the likes of Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. He threw for 4,580 yards, 47 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions. He also completed 70.2 percent of his passes. He threw for more than 400 yards in five games this season. Every Ohio State quarterback before him combined to do it just once. He could have skipped this bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft, but he opted to play. Many pundits predict he’ll be the first quarterback selected in the upcoming draft.
Jake Browning owns almost every significant passing record in UW history, and running back Myles Gaskin might be even more impressive. In addition to his plethora of rushing records, he became the first player in Pac-12 history to post four consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 rushing yards. Both Browning and Gaskin are statistically two of the best players at their respective positions in the entire history of the conference, and it shows when you look at the all-time records list.
That being said, Browning has been really sub-par this year compared to his sensational sophomore season. He regressed in his junior year and then this year has been outright disappointing statistically. He has thrown for more than 300 yards just once this season, thrown interceptions in nine of the team’s 13 games, and thrown more than one touchdown in a game just three times this year.
Washington’s season has been defined by ugly wins and ugly losses. Ohio State’s season was defined by inconsistent play and catching fire in its last two games. Both squads did enough to survive, make it to their conference championship, and win their respective conference titles.
Washington lucked out in that the Pac-12 was an absolute train wreck. Teams savaged each other. The Huskies’ fifth-ranked scoring defense is the biggest reason that they are in this game. They did an incredible job against Gardner Minshew in the Apple Cup, limiting one of the nation’s top passers and offenses to 152 passing yards with no touchdowns and two picks. Meanwhile, Myles Gaskin gashed the Cougars for 170 rushing yards and three TDs. They then shut down Utah in a really boring conference championship game that they won 10-3.
Ohio State is now one of the hottest teams in the country, and it’s looking to send head coach Urban Meyer off with a win in his last game at the helm. Haskins spreads the ball around, and the up-tempo attack is lethal. Both J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber can hurt you in the backfield, and Parris Campbell hauled in 79 catches for 992 yards and 11 touchdowns. The defense has been suspect all season, especially since the Buckeyes lost their defensive MVP, Nick Bosa, to a season-ending injury.
Ohio State managed to rout a pair of teams with pretty good run games and defenses in Michigan and Northwestern. Can Washington keep this game a low-scoring affair? If they can’t, will the Huskies be able to score enough points to keep pace and win?
The Line: Ohio State (-6.5)
My Pick: Since their 31-24 win against UCLA on Oct. 6, the Huskies have put up 30 or more points in a game just once, and that was against an Oregon State team that finished the year 2-10 and 1-8 in the conference. Ohio State has scored 40 points or more in eight of its 13 games and scored 52, 62, and 45 points in its last three games. I’m taking the Buckeyes to win and cover.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 15 Texas (9-4) vs. No. 5 Georgia (11-2) — Tuesday, Jan. 1, at 8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN
Georgia blew another second-half lead to Alabama in Atlanta in the final minutes, so instead of winning another SEC title and getting a shot at redemption after losing to the Crimson Tide in last year’s national championship game, the Bulldogs were knocked out of the CFP and had to settle for the Sugar Bowl. Will they be mentally ready and motivated to play against a Texas squad looking for its first 10-win season since 2009?
Jake Fromm is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country. He threw for more than 2,500 yards with 27 touchdowns and just five picks. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. The real force behind this Georgia team is its fantastic defense and its powerful run game led by D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield. The dynamic duo combined for 1,993 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns.
Justin Fields has announced that he’ll consider transferring from the program after not getting much playing time behind Fromm, but head coach Kirby Smart still plans to use him in this game. Why not, right? It might be the last time he’ll play for them.
I can’t say enough about the toughness of Texas’ starting QB Sam Ehlinger. This guy is going to be a household name next year and make a serious run at the Heisman. After throwing two interceptions in a season-opening loss to Maryland, he went 10 straight games without throwing a pick and put up monster numbers along the way. His numbers look pretty darn good. This season, he has thrown for 3,123 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. He also added more than 400 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
Georgia will be without the services of the nation’s top cornerback, Deandre Baker, because he’s skipping the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Without the Jim Thorpe Award winner on the field, I expect to see Ehlinger target his six-foot-four-inch star wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey even more than previously planned. Humphrey collected 79 catches for 1,109 yards and nine touchdowns this season. The Longhorns will want to get him involved early and often.
The Line: Georgia (-13.0)
My Pick: Texas has proven its ability to score points, but it hasn’t shown its ability to stop a running game like Georgia’s. Plus, you can’t spell sugar without UGA. I’m taking the Dawgs to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
