The battle for Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, nearly as many congressional seats and a lopsided Senate race entered its final hours Monday, as elections officials girded for potentially record-setting turnout.
Nearly one in 10 registered voters in the commonwealth already have voted with absentee ballots, the State Board of Elections announced. The 465,962 ballots are more than twice the number cast in the 2004 presidential election, another sign that state polling places will be deluged today as Obama and McCain supporters wrestle for control of a vital swing state. Obama maintains a small lead in polls.
“The state as a whole is probably going to experience record turnout for a modern election,” said Bob Gibson, executive director of the University of Virginia’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “And we’re seeing enthusiasm really has built on both sides, but I think it may be a little heavier on the Democratic side in Northern Virginia and Tidewater where Obama needs it.”
Democrats have pinned their best hopes in Virginia on two open seats in Congress, left up for grabs by the retirements of two high-profile Republicans: Sen. John Warner and 11th District Rep. Tom Davis.
In the Senate race, former Gov. Mark Warner has consistently polled at least 20 points ahead of James Gilmore III, his opponent and predecessor in the governor’s mansion.
Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly is widely favored over his opponent, Republican businessman Keith Fimian, to replace Davis.
Gary Baise, a Republican who lost to Connolly in the race for Fairfax chairman last year, said Fimian has been more aggressive and successful in fundraising than Baise in the 2007 race, though Connolly has “built-in advantages.”
“There is just an anger that’s palpable with regards to [President] Bush, that does not help Keith,” Baise said. “As good and bright and hardworking as Keith is, like me, he’s running against the tide.”
Nine of Virginia’s 11 congressional district are contested, with incumbents widely expected to retain their seats, though Gibson said new registrations in Hampton Roads give Democrat Glenn Nye a chance of beating incumbent Republican Thelma Drake.
