SAVAGE, Md. — Ivan Lutwin is a proud “Republi-crat” who has voted Republican for governor but never for president. In John Kasich, Lutwin has finally found a Republican White House contender he can get behind.
That was the case for several Kasich fans that showed up Wednesday to meet the Ohio governor during his first campaign swing through this unlikely, yet crucial, mid-Atlantic battleground. The state’s GOP presidential primary, open only to registered party members, is set for April 26; at stake are 38 delegates to what could be a contested nominating convention.
Some, like Lutwin, were registered Republicans who can’t stomach their party’s two front-runners, New York businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Others were reliable Democratic voters, of the kind that predominate in this liberal bastion, who came to catch a glimpse of a Republican they find intriguing and the only one they could imagine voting for in November.
“I like to actually call myself a Republi-crat. More socially liberal, fiscally conservative, and I think you’ll find a lot of that in the mid Atlantic, I-95 corridor,” said Lutwin, a 41 year-old technology sales executive from Pikesville, in Baltimore County.
Lutwin, with young daughter in tow, met Kasich during his visit to an ice cream shop in Catonsville, near Baltimore, and then drove south on I-95 to attend the governor’s town hall meeting in Savage, an historic village closer to the Washington suburbs. “Ted Cruz, I don’t trust him as far as I can throw him,” Lutwin said, of Kasich’s competition. “Donald Trump concerns me. He reminds me of a petulant child.”
Kasich likes to say that he refuses to “take the low road to the highest office in the land.” It hasn’t helped him with Republicans, but has led to high marks in polls gauging hypothetical matchups with Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton — he beats her handily — as well as interest from registered Democrats like Jo Walrath.
The Johns Hopkins University professor interrupted Kasich while he was finishing a scoop of chocolate ice cream and mingling with the dozen or so voters in Catonsville to compliment him on the tenor of his campaign. “Thanks for being civil,” Walrath told the governor, calling out to him over the crowd. She told reporters that she is undecided about whom to support in November.
Kasich’s only path to the nomination runs through a convention floor fight. That only happens if the governor boosts his delegate haul and, in combination with Cruz, blocks Trump from a 1,237 delegate majority before the primary season concludes in early June. Kasich is currently running a distant third in delegates, with just 143. Maryland is among the few remaining states that afford him an opportunity to up his total improve his position for Cleveland.
Trump, with 743 delegates overall, leads in recent polls and is poised to win a plurality of Maryland’s 38 delegates. But state GOP awards the bulk of their delegates, three each, to the winner of each congressional district.
Political observers say Trump will score with blue collar Republicans and recent ex-Democrats, and is likely to win five of the eight districts. Cruz, with 545 delegates overall, could also be competitive and snag some delegates. Kasich could do well in the 4th, 7th and 8th districts, home, respectively, to the wealthy, highly educated and federal government employees. They tend to consider themselves socially liberal but fiscally conservative.
Republican Bob Ehrlich, a longtime friend who served in Congress with Kasich and was later elected to one term as Maryland governor, said he expects the Ohioan to win delegates here. But Ehrlich conceded that Kasich’s Maryland campaign faces challenges. “He’s got the record and the philosophical approach to win, the problem is the late start and the dollars,” Ehrlich said.
“I couldn’t think of a more perfect state for his appeal, particularly in a general election,” the former governor added. The current governor, Republican Larry Hogan, is likely to remain neutral in the primary.
Kasich’s bet is that he can use the remainder of the primary season to elevate his profile with Republicans nationwide and then roll into Cleveland and make a play for a delegate majority.
The governor’s reasoning is that delegates will warm to his experience, message and sunny tone, and overlook his lack of primary victories (so far, he’s only won his home state) once they focus on just how poorly some general election polls show Cruz and Trump performing against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
In interviews, and as was apparent at Kasich’s town hall meeting before a few hundred people when he discussed what a contested convention would look like, voters here don’t seem to have a problem with the governor winning the nomination in a contested convention, despite finishing a distant third with actual voters. In Savage, the audience clapped and cheered after Kasich laid out his rosy strategy.
Afterward, Kasich supporter Winston Wilkinson Jr. said the governor’s approach makes sense, in part because, in his view, Trump, the front-runner with the most delegates, is so flawed.
“Trump is someone who had some good ideas but he shot himself in the foot. I mean every time he’s opened his mouth, he just turned more people off,” said the 35-year-old real estate executive from Montgomery Country, near Washington. “He might be ahead in the polls right now, he might be ahead with delegates, but I think once we get to the convention, people get serious, you have serious people in a room, they’re going to pick someone who they think can win.”
Kasich’s long odds at the convention could be made even longer by the grassroots work being done by Cruz to install delegates loyal to him.
In states across the country, where Republican parties are electing scores of delegates, Cruz has outflanked both Kasich and Trump in fielding delegate candidates that are pledging to back the Texas senator once they become unbound from the candidate that won their primary and are free to vote their conscience. Kasich appears to recognize the challenges he faces.
The governor sidestepped reporters when asked to discuss his delegate strategy, saying he leaves the process to his advisors. Kasich got testy when he was pressed further on how he plans to overcome Cruz in a multi-ballot floor fight. “How’d he do in Michigan?” Kasich snapped. He was referring to Cruz’s failure to win key convention committee slots allotted to the Michigan delegation after Kasich joined forces with Trump.
Just a few minutes earlier, as Kasich was thanking Walrath for complimenting his civility in a campaign notable for its aggressiveness and personal attacks, he also offered an admonition:
“If you like the fact that I don’t name call and all that other stuff, then you better get out and vote for somebody that doesn’t do it,” Kasich said. “Because if the result in somebody not calling names means they lose, how do you think that’s going to work for the next person?”
