A Scorecard for the Senate

Let’s run down the major states by the time we should expect the first results on Election Day. First off is Georgia, whose polls close at 7 p.m. In a year like this, the race should be an easy victory for the Republican party. After a hard-fought primary, the GOP landed on a seemingly good candidate in businessman David Perdue. Yet his campaign against Michelle Nunn has been lackluster, and now Nunn has gone on the attack for comments Perdue has made about “outsourcing.” The Republicans have had to pump money into this race late, and polls show a jump ball. Good news for Republicans: If no candidate gets a clear majority, the race heads to a January runoff. That looks like the most likely outcome—Libertarian Amanda Swafford, polling at just 4 percent, is the spoiler—though it should never have gotten to this point.

The polls in Virginia also close at 7 p.m. Mark Warner has held a comfortable lead throughout the cycle, but recent news regarding his role in the so-called Puckett scandal—whether Warner tried to get a job for the daughter of a critical state senator—has cast some doubt. Warner has worked hard to maintain a sterling reputation throughout the state, so Republican Ed Gillespie remains a massive underdog. Still, a “perfect storm” just might produce the upset.

Closing at the same time statewide is Kentucky. Both sides have fought hard for this state, but it looks like Republican Mitch McConnell will pull out the victory. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has sent mixed signals about its commitment to this race, and Alison Lundergan Grimes has been inartful in distancing herself from President Obama.

At 7:30 p.m., the polls in West Virginia close. This should be an easy pickup for Republican Shelley Moore Capito, set to succeed retiring Democrat Jay Rockefeller. West Virginia does not interest liberal pundits and journalists nearly as much as North Carolina, but the Mountain State has just as many Senate seats, and its shift rightward continues apace.

Then there are the two GOP “stretch” seats. North Carolina’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. while New Hampshire’s hours vary by precinct. A win in either state would signal a big Republican wave. North Carolina, like Georgia, should have been an easy win, but the Republican nominee, state house speaker Thom Tillis, has been under fire for his tenure in the legislature. Late-breaking attacks on Democrat Kay Hagan—for missing key committee hearings and her family’s acquisition of stimulus money—seem to have shaken the race up a bit. As of this writing, Hagan still has about a 2-point lead, down from 4 or 5 a month ago. She is still favored, but a big GOP wave could even sweep a bad candidate like Tillis into the Senate.

In New Hampshire, former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown was written off as a longshot, but he has continuously closed the gap with incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. Now, he trails by less than 3 points. There are not many undecideds left, and New Hampshire has been a tough state for Republicans over the last 15 years. Still, an upset is possible.

The polls in Arkansas close at 8:30 p.m., and here Republicans can look forward to Tom Cotton defeating Democrat Mark Pryor. Cotton has led consistently in the polls as Pryor has struggled to articulate a coherent case for his reelection. Most pundits are now publicly putting this race in the GOP’s column, and indeed many of them have been doing so privately for some time.

Next up is Louisiana, whose polls close at 9 p.m. on the East Coast. Democrat Mary Landrieu shows a slight lead in the close race. But Louisiana, like Georgia, has a runoff, which will almost certainly occur because a Tea Party conservative appears set to siphon just enough of leading Republican Bill Cassidy’s vote. So the real action here will be on December 6; then, Cassidy will be favored.

Closing at the same time statewide is Kansas. This is the second of the GOP’s unforced errors this cycle. In arguably the most Republican state in the union, GOP senator Pat Roberts is in the fight of his life against nominal independent Greg Orman. The good news here is that Roberts—once he detected trouble—began to fight back, aggressively. He has worked hard to bring the Republican electorate—about 50 percent of the state—home. Polls right now show a tie, with momentum favoring the incumbent.

Also closing at 9 p.m. are the polls in South Dakota, which has a strange three-way race. This contest was long thought to be a cakewalk for former Republican governor Mike Rounds. Yet a controversial visa program run under his watch has given him heartburn, and iconoclastic former senator Larry Pressler is running as an independent. Previously a Republican, he has shifted leftward and would be a pretty reliable vote for Democrats in the upper chamber. There has not been a lot of polling here, but the Republican party is aware of the challenges, and the buzz is that Rounds should pull off the win.

Montana’s polls also close at 9 p.m. Democrat Max Baucus, the longtime senator from the state, is now ambassador to China. A plagiarism scandal knocked Democrat John Walsh out of the race, and the party responded by nominating a far-left liberal out of touch with voters here. Expect another easy GOP pickup.

The polls in Colorado close at 9 p.m., too. Long a Republican stronghold, the Centennial State has moved pretty remarkably to the Democrats in the last decade. Liberals tend to credit this to the rise of the Latino vote, but that is only partially true. White voters still hold the balance of power here, and they have shifted noticeably against the GOP. Yet recent polling suggests that they have soured on Barack Obama, which should benefit Republican Cory Gardner in his race to unseat Democrat Mark Udall. Gardner has led consistently in the polls, but Colorado has a mail-in ballot option that makes this race a real puzzler.

At 10 p.m. on the East Coast, the polls in Iowa close. This is one of the true toss-up states in the cycle, though Republican Joni Ernst has held a consistent but small lead over the last few months. Iowa is a bit mystifying. Long viewed as a purple state, Iowa actually has its own political rhythm. A bad farm recession in the late 1980s shifted it from Republican to Democrat, but it drifted back to the GOP by 2004. Then it became Barack Obama’s darling, propelling him with an unlikely caucus win early in 2008 and backing him in both elections since. Independent-minded, rooted in the farm economy, and often unpredictable, Iowa voters probably favor the GOP this time, but not by much.

Finally, at midnight, the polls close in Alaska. On presidential election nights, Alaska’s solid Republican tilt and three electoral votes mean that it’s usually not of interest. But its Senate races for the last decade or so have been interesting. This year Republican Dan Sullivan is looking to unseat Democrat Mark Begich. Surveys have shown a pretty steady Sullivan lead, but Alaska is a hard state to poll.

Add all this up and what kind of hand do we have? Republicans hold a polling lead in a net eight Democratic seats; they need to net six to wrest control of the Senate. They are, moreover, within striking distance in another two. Despite Republican missteps in key races, such as Kansas and Georgia, the field of opportunity is so large that Democrats basically need an inside straight to keep Harry Reid as majority leader.

Jay Cost is a staff writer at The Weekly Standard.