Senate Democrats in red states who are running for re-election in 2018 were expected to be more supportive of Neil Gorsuch, the newest Supreme Court justice, but the significant amount of campaign cash they raise from liberal activists across the country may have trumped their home-state politics.
Ten Democrats from states Trump won in November are due to face the voters in 2018. Voting to confirm Neil Gorsuch, or at least permit him an up-or-down vote, might have been a way for them to build support at home in the red and swing states they represent.
But several of them are highly dependent on out-of-state money from a liberal base staunchly opposed to confirming President Trump’s nominee to the high court. And that may have been a factor in their decision to ditch their home-state politics and instead support their progressive colleagues as they tried to block Gorsuch.
“The good news for Democrats is, this money machine that was built by Howard Dean’s scream and [former President Barack] Obama’s candidacy is just foolproof. However, it also yanks the chain whenever it wants,” said Republican strategist Brad Todd.
It’s not clear how big a factor out-of-state money played in each senator’s decision. But the numbers show that many senators rely heavily on outside funds.
For example, Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., raised a whopping 80 percent of his war chest from contributors out of state ($6.5 million) during the period 2011 to 2016, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The other 20 percent ($1.6 million) was raised at home.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Montana by nearly 21 percentage points, and Tester might have gained from supporting Gorsuch, or at least joining with Republicans to kill his party’s filibuster of his nomination to the Supreme Court. But given Tester’s disparity in in-state versus out-of-state money, keeping the national spigot running might be a higher political priority than appeasing Republican and independent voters.
The Democratic base has been adamant that the party fight Trump on every front. Voting for Gorsuch could have cost Tester the support of liberal activists around the country that he’ll need next year to fight off a spirited Republican challenge. Tester said in a brief interview Thursday that politics had nothing to do with his opposition.
“I’ve got plenty of creds with the Democratic base on what I do, in public lands and national security and our veterans and all that stuff, so I’m good there,” Tester said. “This all had to do with [Gorsuch’s] record. And it’s very disturbing, quite frankly, that we’re going to confirm this guy to a lifetime appointment.”
Despite that rejection, a review of other Senate Democrats up in 2018 shows that many others benefit significantly from outside funds. Below are fundraising figures for Democratic incumbents running in targeted races in 2018, compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
Money raised in state: $2.5 million (33 percent)
Money raised out of state: $5 million (67 percent)
*Trump won Wisconsin 47.9 percent to 46.9 percent
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio
Money raised in state: $7.3 million (57 percent)
Money raised out of state: $5.4 million (43 percent)
*Trump won Ohio 52.1 percent to 43.5 percent
Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa.
Money raised in state: $5.5 million (70 percent)
Money raised out of state: $2.3 million (30 percent)
*Trump won Pennsylvania 48.8 percent to 47.6 percent
Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.
Money raised in state: $4.6 million (39 percent)
Money raised out of state: $7.3 million (61 percent)
*Trump won Missouri 57.1 percent to 38 percent
Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.
Money raised in state: $6.5 million (65 percent)
Money raised out of state: $3.5 million (35 percent)
*Trump won Florida 49.1 percent to 47.8 percent
Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
Money raised in state: $2.8 million (47 percent)
Money raised out of state: $3.2 million (53 percent)
*Trump won Michigan 47.6 percent to 47.3 percent
Three Democrats: Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana; Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, bucked their party. All three are standing for re-election in solidly conservative states that voted heavily for Trump in 2016, and all three saw a majority of their funding come from outside their state.
Donnelly
Money raised in state: $1.8 million (45 percent)
Money raised out of state: $2.3 million (55 percent)
*Trump won 57.2 percent to 37.9 percent
Heitkamp
Money raised in state: $600,234 (18 percent)
Money raised out of state: $2.6 million (82 percent)
*Trump won North Dakota 64.1 percent to 27.8 percent
Manchin
Money raised in state: $925,092 (33 percent)
Money raised out of state: $1.9 million (67 percent)
*Trump won West Virginia 68.7 percent to 26.5 percent
