Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly doesn’t have the votes to block witnesses in the impeachment trial, but it’s unlikely he’s squirming. It may sound unsavory to partisans peeved at Democrats trying to remove President Trump from office, but McConnell has a better chance of keeping the Senate by allowing purple-state members to vote to call witnesses and letting the Democrats continue a trial crucial voters have come to disdain.
Barring forensic inculpatory evidence proving that Trump withheld congressionally approved aid from Ukraine with the sole intention of influencing the 2020 election, it’s unlikely that a single Republican will vote to convict and remove Trump from office. Yet just because the conclusion is foregone doesn’t mean that every possible path to getting there results in the same externalities. For Susan Collins, the difference between a trial barring witnesses and one calling them to the stand could be a fifth Senate term. Collins, her reelection bid already harmed by her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, could save her crucial seat for McConnell’s Senate by voting for witnesses, preserving her reputation as an independent Republican.
It’s a long-term benefit for Trump, who requires a Republican Senate to advance his vital judicial agenda. But even in the short term, it could come with some benefits for the party.
What John Bolton testifies will likely bode poorly for Trump, but unless Trump directly disclosed his motivations to Bolton in the Ukraine saga, he probably won’t flip any votes. Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski will shake their heads and express disappointment, and then they’ll get in line and acquit. It’s even possible that Joe Manchin, Doug Jones, and Kyrsten Sinema will vote with Republicans. Furthermore, if Bolton’s book is coming out anyway, the reputational damage for Trump will be the same, meaning calling him as a witness likely won’t have much material impact. In fact, if Republicans block calling Bolton, only for his testimony (roughly speaking) to come out with the release of his book and the publicity tour, it will provide fodder for Democrats claiming a “cover-up.”
But more importantly, impeachment is a loser for Democrats in purple states — one reason House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was eager to get it over with as soon as possible. If witnesses drag out the trial well into the Democratic primary, it’s hard to imagine McConnell getting too upset about it.
The National Republican Senatorial Commitee surveyed battleground states including Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina and found that 62% of those polled “agree that Congress should be focusing on top issues like health care costs, trade deals, and keeping the economy on track instead of trying to remove Donald Trump from office.” Crucially, 58% of Democrats polled said that voters ought to decide Trump’s fate in the fall.
This is Pelosi’s and Adam Schiff’s impeachment show. So long as McConnell knows he can use it to work against Democrats and help sell key senators up for reelection, of course he won’t balk at the notion of extending the trial.
