PALO ALTO, Calif. — Republicans on the left coast are poised to field a pro-abortion, same-sex marriage supporting Senate candidate, testing the theory that they might be relevant in the land of Reagan if only they’d concede defeat on social issues.
Duf Sundheim, a self-described “balding 60 year-old white guy” from Silicon Valley, didn’t set out to be a lab rat. In an interview with the Washington Examiner this week, he waxed like a wonk about water policy — the focal point of his expected 2016 campaign in this drought stricken state — and other important yet otherwise boring, nonpartisan issues. But Sundheim is a former chairman of the California Republican Party, and he understands brass politics.
“I think for a lot of people, [abortion and gay marriage] are gating issues, it sends a broader message about whether you’re inclusive, whether you’re a good listener, whether you’re able to identify with people and you’re able to share their concerns,” Sundheim said, during a wide ranging discussion at the Hoover Institution on the campus of Stanford University, his alma mater. “I think that is helpful to me. It’s not sufficient but I think it’s helpful.”
The Golden State gave America conservative icon Ronald Reagan, who was elected governor twice (in 1966 and 1970) before winning the presidency in 1980. Those days are long gone. California hasn’t elected a Republican statewide since 2006, and the two red waves that swept the GOP to power in Congress and in state legislatures and governor’s mansions across the country never crashed ashore here. Democrats control 38 of the state’s 53 House seats and own Sacramento.
The notion that Republicans can flip the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is something of a pipe dream, with California’s unusual top-two primary doing nothing since it was implemented to dent the liberal advantage here.
Some analysts believe that the two spots on the general election ballot could be won by Democrats, excluding Republicans entirely from the fall contest.
The frontrunner, endorsed by the Democratic establishments in Washington and California, is state Attorney General Kamala Harris, a 50-year-old African American from the Bay Area.
Rep. Loretta Sanchez, 55, a Latina Democrat from Orange County is also formidable. Harris and Sanchez’s ethnic and gender demographic advantages are daunting and could completely overwhelm the Republicans running: Sundheim, 62; Thomas Del Beccaro, 53, a former state GOP chairman, and state Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, 64.
Carson Bruno, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution who specializes in California politics, said the Democrats have such a stranglehold on the state that it’s harder for Republicans to compete in a statewide open primary when more than one top-tier Democrat runs. This is especially true if more than one Republican runs. Under these conditions, it becomes difficult for a single Republican to garner 20 percent of the vote, the bare minimum required to advance.
“At a federal level particularly, it’s solidly a safe Democratic state, that’s partially because of the dynamic of the Bay Area and L.A. County being such a strong proportion of the voters but also because of the fact that California is a majority minority state between the Latinos, African Americans and Asians,” Bruno said. “Add to that the fact that the white demographics are basically split between the two parties.”
Before Republicans sunk to permanent minority status here, they experienced a brief revival, a period that coincided with Sundheim’s four years as state party chairman from 2003 to 2007. The career business lawyer, now a state and federally appointed dispute mediator, became chairman at time when California’s conservative grassroots was warring with the GOP establishment in the state, similar to the rift that would later play out in the party nationally.
Sundheim, working closely with then-Rep. David Dreier and current GOP Chairman Jim Brulte, then the top Republican in the California Senate, pledged to unify the party by recruiting and backing the most electable candidates for each race.
Sundheim raised $100 million during his tenure, which saw the historic recall of a sitting Democratic governor and the election of Republican movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger as his replacement.
Sundheim would later go on to work with a Democratic mayor of San Jose on pension reform, hugely controversial in this public-employee union-dominated state. He is not yet an official Senate candidate, having only opened an exploratory committee, but Sundheim says that his background proves an ability to form coalitions from diverse and competing factions to solve big problems.
For instance, finding a way to win in California as a Republican.
“The question is, whether we’re going to be able to reach enough Democrats through our coalitions to be successful,” Sundheim said.
Sundheim sees room to grow by focusing his campaign on income inequality and economic growth for the middle class, water and housing policy, education reform and infrastructure rehabilitation, like rebuilding roads and bridges.
Going this route would also be a way for Sundheim to focus on nonpartisan issues that concern most Californians, and keep the focus off of the “R” next to his name.
But it wouldn’t be fair to accuse him of completely avoiding hot-button issues.
Sundheim said he has real concerns about President Barack Obama’s national security policies and that his platform would include developing a more aggressive response to the terrorist threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. He favors reducing the tax and regulatory burden on individuals and corporations. He backs an immigration overhaul that includes a path to legal status for illegal immigrants but opposes Obama’s executive action.
Sundheim would have voted “yes” on the USA Freedom Act, as a middle ground between concerns about government surveillance under the National Security Agency’s old bulk data collection program and U.S. intelligence agencies having the tools they need to fight terrorism.
He opposes Obama’s emerging deal with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear weapons capability. He supports the popular components of Obamacare, such as forcing insurers to provide coverage to Americans with pre-existing medical conditions, but otherwise thinks the law is a boondoggle that needs major surgery.
Sundheim would have voted “yes” on Trade Promotion Authority and is inclined to back the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact between the U.S. and its Asian allies.
In the end, none of these positions matter if Californians won’t give Sundheim a hearing. “My role as a United States senator is not to pursue a partisan agenda,” he insisted during the interview, anticipating a typically effective Democratic attack line.
Despite Sundheim’s being pro-choice on abortion, favoring legal gay marriage and granting illegal immigrants a path to legal status, political analysts here say the GOP’s national image is still likely to weigh him down in a race for federal office.
The most recent edition of California’s respected nonpartisan Field Poll, conducted April 23 – May 16, showed Harris in front with 19 percent, Sanchez at 8 percent, Chavez at 6 percent, Del Beccaro at 5 percent and Sundheim at 1 percent.
Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra, who hasn’t ruled out a bid, polled at 3 percent. When respondents were asked for their second choice, Harris and Sanchez gained the most, 3 percent and 6 percent, respectively. A whopping 58 percent were undecided.
“If the general election were to be a more traditional Democrat vs. Republican affair, given the strong partisan loyalties of Democratic and Republican voters and the fact that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by 15 percentage points (43% to 28%), the Democrat would be the heavy favorite,” the Field Poll pollsters wrote in their survey memo.
