Taking down the Confederate flag sounds like a political no-brainer in the wake of the mass shooting inside a black church in Charleston, S.C. But for the Republican presidential contenders, it’s not that simple.
Conservative leaning South Carolina, a crucial early primary state that votes third in the presidential primaries after Iowa and New Hampshire, flies the stars and bars as part of a Confederate memorial situated on the grounds of the state Capitol. Although the flag is seen as the emblem of the Confederacy that seceded from the Union and fought to maintain the chattel slavery of African Americans, many white South Carolinians, who happen to be Republican primary voters, see it differently.
To them, the Confederate flag isn’t about race; it represents Southern heritage and culture, including subjects as high-minded as their reverence for the Bill of Rights and as simple as their love of NASCAR. Ironically, they don’t necessarily care whether the Confederate flag stays or goes. But they resent the notion that politically-correct outsiders might force them to get rid of it. That’s why the Republican presidential candidates have approached the subject so gingerly.
“Yes, [as] an election issue the flying of the Confederate flag at the State House absolutely matters to a great many people and it is an issue to be avoided at all cost in a Republican primary or even the general election,” said one elected South Carolina Republican, who spoke with the Washington Examiner on condition of anonymity. “I believe that if there were a referendum on the issue, and only Republican voters could vote, they would vote to take it down. They just don’t want it forced down.”
“When Republican voters look at the flag they don’t see racism or slavery, they see rugged individualism and freedom, and they don’t care if Northeastern liberals or national Democrats make fun of them for their beliefs,” this Republican added.
The Confederate flag has been flying on South Carolina’s Capitol grounds for years, and it was never much of an issue. Certainly, no one bothered the Republican presidential candidates about it as they crisscrossed the state every four years.
That changed in the wake of Wednesday’s murder of nine African-Americans in Charleston, gunned down as they prayed inside the Emanuel AME church, one of the oldest continually-operating black churches in America. Dylann Roof, a 21-year-old white man, has confessed to the shooting, police say. Roof previously expressed racist sentiments and antipathy toward blacks. He left a manifesto acknowledging these were the reasons he targeted his victims, and there is a picture of him holding a Confederate flag circulating in the media.
The Republican Party’s 2016 contenders are trying to walk a fine line between alienating the South Carolina primary voters they need to win their party’s nomination, and the millions of rank and file voters in other states they’ll need to beat presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in a general election. Few have been as blunt as Mitt Romney, the party’s 2012 nominee, who in a Saturday tweet called for the flag to be taken down.
A Republican consultant based in the especially conservative “upstate” region of South Carolina said that calling for the Confederate flag to be taken down could absolutely cost a presidential candidate votes in the primary.
“Most definitely, from flag supporters and from those who want it down, but don’t want others telling South Carolina what to do,” this GOP operative said. “I guess one question has to be: If you support the flag to curry favor with that segment of the GOP primary vote, what is the cost in other states?”
Among the GOP presidential candidates, Jeb Bush was among the most direct, calling for the flag to be removed, similar to action he took when he served as governor of Florida. Bush said that he is “confident” that leaders in the state would “do the right thing.” Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said he supported taking down the flag in his state, but pointedly declined to urge that South Carolina do the same.
“Ultimately the people of South Carolina will make the right decision for South Carolina and I believe in their capacity to make that decision. The next president of the United States will not make that decision. That’s up for the people of South Carolina to make, and I think they’ll make the right one like they’ve made them in the past,” Rubio told reporters, as reported by the Miami Herald.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas also said the issue was for South Carolinians to decide, according to the New York Times.
“I understand the passions that this debate evokes on both sides. Both those who see a history of racial oppression and a history of slavery, which is the original sin of our nation. And we fought a bloody civil war to expunge that sin,” the Tea Party favorite said, while campaigning in Iowa. “But I also understand those who want to remember the sacrifices of their ancestors and the traditions of their states — not the racial oppression, but the historical traditions. And I think often this issue is used as a wedge to try to divide people.”
South Carolina is, no doubt, conservative territory. All levels of state government are controlled by Republicans, with the state’s two U.S. Senate seats and the congressional delegation also dominated by the GOP. Yet the state is more politically diverse than given credit for.
True, the Upstate is strongly right of center. But the coastal Low Country, including Charleston, is friendly to the GOP establishment. The middle of the state (the Midlands), where Columbia is situated, is a mixture of those two regions.
The state has seen a migration influx and population growth in recent years, and some Republican insiders there argue that calling for removal of the Confederate flag is likely to generate minimal political blowback in the 2016 primary. At the very least, said one Republican operative based in Columbia, the electorate has changed enough that the caution exhibited by the Republican presidential candidates when discussing the subject can no longer be justified.
“The GOP electorate of 2016 is not the same as 2000,” this Republican insider said. “There is a tiny and dwindling block of voters who would cross a candidate off their list if the candidate stated the Confederate flag should be removed from the state house grounds.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an advisor to Scott Walker.
