The British scientist considered to be largely responsible for coronavirus lockdowns in the United Kingdom said this week that Sweden achieved roughly the same results in combating the virus without strict lockdown measures.
Imperial College scientist Neil Ferguson became known to many as “Professor Lockdown” after his prediction model, which was drastically adjusted later on, helped convince U.K. officials to impose strict coronavirus lockdowns. He said, however, that Swedish health officials “got a long way to the same effect” without a lockdown, according to the Telegraph.
Sweden imposed arguably the softest coronavirus restrictions in Europe, opting to encourage practical social distancing measures but to reject lockdowns that some studies suggest do more harm than good.
While Sweden’s coronavirus death toll is higher than its Nordic neighbors, the country has touted its overall response and pointed out that it has largely achieved herd immunity to the virus without locking down the country.
“There are things that we could have done better, but, in general, I think that Sweden has chosen the right way,” Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said this week. He pointed out, however, that the country could have done more to protect the elderly population and responded, “Yes, absolutely,” when asked if too many people died too early.
Financial data showed that by not locking down, Sweden avoided a major blow to its economy, witnessing a gross domestic product contraction of 0.3% in the first three months compared with 3.8% across the rest of Europe.
The current rate of virus reproduction in Sweden is believed to be at one, which means that every virus case will cause one other infection. In the U.K., the rate is thought to be between 0.75 and one.
“They came to a different policy conclusion but based really on quite similar science,” Ferguson said about Sweden. “I don’t agree with it. But scientifically, they’re not that far from scientists in any part of the world.”
Ferguson said that Sweden’s mortality rate is not declining the way it is in other countries but said, “Nevertheless, it is interesting that adopting a policy which is short of a full lockdown — they have closed secondary schools and universities, and there is a significant amount of social distancing, but it’s not a full lockdown — they have got quite a long way to the same effect.”
“That is something we are looking at very closely.”
Despite maintaining that U.K.’s lockdown was effective, Ferguson said that lockdowns are “very crude” and, in the future, should be more targeted.
Ferguson also echoed Tegnell’s sentiment that his country should have done more to protect the elderly in nursing homes.
Ferguson, who tested positive for the coronavirus in March, resigned in May after it was revealed he broke his social distancing rules to engage in a rendezvous with his married lover. He told the House of Lords on Tuesday that he is still helping shape coronavirus policy as he leads a team contributing to a subcommittee.
In the U.K., 39,811 people have died from the coronavirus, with over 280,000 total cases, while just over 4,500 have died in Sweden, with just over 40,000 cases, according to Johns Hopkins University.
