In a weak Democratic field, Hillary Clinton is the favorite of younger voters and Ben Carson is the surprise choice among more than a dozen Republicans, according to a huge and authoritative Harvard University poll of 3,034 18-to-29-year-olds.
The highly-anticipated annual survey by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that younger voters lean Democratic going into the 2016 election, though not at the levels that helped elect President Obama twice, and most are pretty optimistic about their future.
Carson, a neurosurgeon who made headlines criticizing Obamacare, scores big in the new poll, the first significant survey putting him in first place in the GOP field. He was the top choice at 10 percent, followed by Sen. Rand Paul at 8 percent and Jeb Bush at 7 percent.
Sen. Marco Rubio, who topped a handful of major polls after he announced this month, scored a weak 2 percent, even with Carly Fiorina but behind the other major potential candidates.
Clinton received 47 percent, the latest poll to have her winning against unknowns like former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the darling of the progressive movement, received only 11 percent. Vice President Joe Biden received 8 percent and O’Malley an anemic 3 percent.
Liberal Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has been working hard to get attention and who plans to announce his presidential bid soon, scored a tiny 1 percent, dead last in the Democratic field.
The poll, closely studied by candidates trying to engage the youth vote, found that the younger Americans are settling back into their Democratic vs. Republican ratios after going all in for Obama. The 18-to-29-year-olds favor Democrats 55 percent to 40 percent. The last time the gap was so close was in 2004, suggesting that Clinton will have to work overtime to energize young voters to win.
Clinton doesn’t excite younger Democrats like Obama. In his first election, he won 66 percent and in his 2012 re-election took 60 percent. It’s even worse among voters 18-24, where Democrats hold a 51 percent to 43 percent edge.
The poll looked at several key issues of importance to the younger voters:
• On judicial system fairness, the voters are split 49 percent to 49 percent over whether courts judge people with no racial or ethnic bias.
• A majority don’t believe police protests will change the current law enforcement troubles, though most think the use of body cameras will help.
• Some 50 percent approve of Obama’s job performance, especially on the the economy and climate change.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
