Donald Trump’s Arizona victory on Tuesday solidified his position as the only candidate with a realistic path to winning a majority of delegates going into the Republican National Convention — but there are a number of factors still working against him.
Before getting to those factors, it’s worth noting where the race stands at the current moment. Following Tuesday’s contests in Arizona and Utah, Trump has 754 delegates, Sen. Ted Cruz has 465 and Gov. John Kasich has 143. (Note: This is a slightly higher number for Trump than the Associated Press estimate, but is based on the fairly safe assumption that Trump will take the remaining delegates in Illinois and Missouri once all of the results become official.)
To get to a 1,237 delegate majority, Trump needs to win roughly 54 percent of all delegates outstanding, an improvement over the 47 percent he’s won so far. At this point, it is mathematically impossible for Kasich to win outright and for Cruz, it’s mathematically improbable, as he’d have to win about 86 percent of remaining delegates.
The case for Trump winning an outright majority hinges on the fact that going forward, the primary calendar includes a number of Northeastern states that should be strong for him and difficult for Cruz, including delegate-rich New York and winner-take-all New Jersey. Also, with fewer candidates to split the delegates and favorable allocation rules in a number of states, Trump could win a higher proportion of delegates going forward than he has to date. This logic is sound. But here are five factors working against Trump.
1) The remaining winner-take-all states are more favorable to Cruz
There are five states left that give all of their delegates to the winner. The smart money is on Trump to take New Jersey (51) and Delaware (16), for a total of 67 delegates. But that still leaves Montana (27), South Dakota (29), and Nebraska (36) — representing a total of 92 delegates in a part of the country that has been the least hospitable territory for Trump. If Cruz takes those three states, Trump suddenly has to win 57 percent of all other delegates.
2) Unbound delegates
In most states, delegates sent to the GOP convention in Cleveland will be bound to support a given candidate in the first round of voting for the nominee, based on how the various candidates performed in those states. But there are several states coming up on the calendar in which that isn’t necessarily the case. The most prominent example is Pennsylvania. On the surface, the large Northeastern state with a big white working class population would be tailor-made for Trump. But winning the state would only guarantee Trump 17 delegates. The remaining 54 delegates would be elected on the primary ballot, but they could vote for whomever they want.
In North Dakota, all 28 delegates are unbound and elected at a state convention/caucus.
Remove the unbound delegates from the equation and Trump needs to win nearly 60 percent of all other delegates. Combine this with the above winner-take-all assumptions, and he’d need 64 percent.
It’s quite possible that Trump can win over a critical mass of these unbound delegates, especially if he’s close to the 1,237 majority and needs a few to get him over the top. But it adds a layer of uncertainty and improves the chances that well-organized party regulars can block him in Cleveland.
3) Trump is beatable in several additional states
Beyond the winner-take-all states, there are several states where Trump would either be the underdog going in, or where he can still lose. In Wisconsin, the next big primary, the reliable Marquette poll had Trump at 30 percent and Cruz at 19 percent. However, that poll was taken a month ago, when Marco Rubio was still drawing 20 percent. Given that Cruz now has two weeks to campaign there and likely can count of the endorsement of Gov. Scott Walker, who is still highly popular among Republicans in the state, he should certainly be seen as being in a strong position in the state. (A poll released on Wednesday by Emerson, which doesn’t have as established a track record in the state, shows Cruz up by one point.)
After Wisconsin, there’s a vote in Colorado to elect delegates that are bound to specific candidates — and again, it’s a state in the Mountain West, where Trump has struggled. In Indiana, Trump would likely be the odds on favorite based on the demographics of the state and the fact that it’s a primary, which has worked out better for him than caucuses. But at the same time, he’s had a mixed record in the Midwest, having lost in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota and Ohio, and Cruz got relatively close in Illinois and within a hair in Missouri.
Also, there are 17 delegates still outstanding in Wyoming, to be decided at the state convention taking place next month. Cruz already cleaned up at the county level conventions in the state, winning nine of 12 possible delegates, while Trump carried only one county. There’s no reason to believe Trump would do any better next month.
Combined, these states account for 153 delegates.
4) Delegate allocation rules aren’t all friendly to Trump
It’s true that a number of larger states heavily favor the winner, which is good for Trump, who will be in a position to snap up a lot of delegates by winning states by mere pluralities (discussed further below).
But there are also a number of states where the rules work against him.
In Oregon, the delegate threshold is just 4 percent, which again means that a plurality win doesn’t do much for Trump.
Rhode Island is a state that Trump should win easily, given the dominance he’s shown in New England to date. Under the rules, however, the threshold to qualify for delegates is a relatively low 10 percent. Furthermore, a chunk of the delegates are chosen at the Congressional district level, and if three candidates get 10 percent of the vote, then each candidate gets one delegate each from the district. Assuming Kasich remains in the race, this will mean that Trump can dominate Rhode Island without having much to show for it.
Washington state and New Mexico are also proportional states, though with higher thresholds — Washington at 20 percent and New Mexico at 15 percent.
Aside from the proportional states, there are states where Trump should stand to gain big, but where both Kasich and Cruz would have a chance to pick off delegates. The biggest prize is California, which has 172 delegates, but 159 of them are winner-take-all by Congressional district, allowing candidates to target different parts of the state.
Other states where Cruz and Kasich could pick of delegates in specific districts include: Trump’s home state of New York, Maryland, Connecticut and Indiana. Now, if these states follow the model of Illinois, where Trump won 39 percent of the vote and roughly 80 percent of the delegates, then he’ll almost certainly secure the nomination. But the absence of Rubio could make it easier for Cruz to consolidate the anti-Trump vote, and one other crucial factor remains: time.
5) Time
So far, the compressed primary calendar has been a huge benefit to Trump, who has built on the momentum of his victories and kept his opponents off guard through his dominance of the news cycle. Now, the race slows down considerably. Consider this: in the first eight days of this month, more delegates were awarded than will be up for grabs between now and the end of the primary season in June.
This will provide more time for anti-Trump forces to regroup. They will be able to run more focused attack ads. They can have more time to do internal polling and to plot out which states and Congressional districts to target. And the candidates will have more time to campaign. Cruz now has a full two weeks to hit the trail in Wisconsin; six weeks until Indiana; and two and a half months until California.
It’s quite possible that none of this will change the overall dynamics of the race, and that Trump will be the nominee regardless. But if he is to be denied the nomination, it will likely be because of these factors.
