MILITARY DRILLS EXTENDED: North Korea’s recent provocative violations of U.N. resolutions are ostensibly a response to the large-scale joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises now underway, which a senior North Korean official this week angrily called an “excessive military confrontation of hostile forces.”
After launching a record 25 short-range missiles Wednesday, followed yesterday by a test of its newest long-range Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, which reportedly failed midflight, North Korea today sent an air armada of 180 warplanes, including fighter jets and bombers, racing south to the border, prompting South Korea to scramble 80 jets in response, including U.S. F-35s, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.
The response from the United States is to double down on the massive war games that were scheduled to end today — the announcement coming at a Pentagon press conference after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jong-sup.
“I’ve consulted with Minister Lee, and we’ve decided to extend Vigilant Storm, which is our long-scheduled combined training exercise to further bolster our readiness and interoperability,” Austin said. “And we’ll continue to work closely together to develop options to protect the United States and our allies in the region.”
Later, Pentagon officials said the “extended” exercises may be extended only a single day, into tomorrow.
NORTH KOREA UNSUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHES SUSPECTED ICBM TEST AND TWO OTHERS
‘THE END OF THE KIM REGIME’: This week’s rant by North Korea’s Pak Jong Chon, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea warned that if Pyongyang sees any military move against the North, its armed forces “will immediately perform their strategic mission,” an apparent threat to use nuclear weapons.
In response, the U.S. made its own nuclear threat. “The United States remains fully committed to the defense of the ROK. And our extended deterrence commitment is firm,” said Austin at yesterday’s press conference. “And it includes a full range of our nuclear and conventional and missile defense capabilities.”
The joint communique, issued after the Security Consultative Meeting at the Pentagon, included this pointed warning: “Any nuclear attack against the United States or its allies and partners, including the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim regime.”
NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR ATTACK WOULD END KIM REGIME, US AND SOUTH KOREA AFFIRM
HAPPENING TODAY: At the request of the U.S., the United Nations Security Council will meet in a special session as the U.S. tries to get the world body to toughen sanctions enforcement against North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which is already banned from conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by several resolutions.
“These are resolutions that we and the Chinese and others worked together to put on the books against the DPRK, but most recently, China has not joined us in condemning these actions and our efforts to add more sanctions onto the ones that we already have on board,” said U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield on MSNBC yesterday.
“We really do need to ramp up our efforts so that the DPRK gets the message that what they are doing is unacceptable,” said Thomas-Greenfield, noting that Russia and China are likely once again to block any action. “Our hope is that we can bring them on board. But again, I’m not naive, but we will do our best. … This is really beyond the pale, what the DPRK has done over the past week.”
NORTH KOREA READY TO CONDUCT NUCLEAR TEST, SOUTH KOREAN LEADER SAYS
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‘THE BIG ONE IS COMING’: An ominous warning from the Navy admiral in command of U.S. nuclear forces: “Ukraine crisis … is just the warmup,” said Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, in a speech to the Naval Submarine League, according to the Pentagon.
“The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested in a long time,” Richard said.
Echoing the concerns of other commanders, and many Republicans in Congress, Richard said the U.S. is moving too slowly in response to China’s massive military buildup and Xi Jinping’s expansive ambition to be the world’s dominant military power.
“As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking,” Richard said. “It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking as, fundamentally, they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going. It isn’t going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are or how good our horses are — we’re not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem.”
OPINION: BIDEN’S ANTI-STRATEGIC NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
GALLAGHER: ‘WINDOW OF MAXIMUM DANGER’: Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), a former Marine with a doctorate in international relations, has been preaching to anyone who will listen that the U.S. strategy for deterring Xi’s desire to see Taiwan by force if necessary as totally inadequate.
“We haven’t really seen anything like we’ve seen with the massive military investment that China is making in its military. And of course, this isn’t just a military threat. It’s an economic threat. It’s an ideological threat. And it’s a threat for which we were completely unprepared,” Gallagher said in an interview in the current issue of the Washington Examiner magazine.
Gallagher said the House Armed Services Committees in the next Congress, which might be controlled by Republicans, should focus on avoiding “a deterrence failure with Taiwan like we saw in Ukraine.
“It’s all about surging hard power through Taiwan and throughout the first island chain. We have $14 billion worth of backlogged foreign military sales items that have been approved but not delivered to Taiwan. We need to get those delivered ASAP,” he told the Washington Examiner.
Gallagher said the Biden administration’s strategy of “integrated deterrence” is too reliant on future technology while shortchanging the current needs for traditional conventional power, such as ships, planes, and bombs.
“I’m all for investing in hypersonics, directed energy, and AI, which will be critical for the future,” he said. “But the problem is those technologies won’t be ready for prime time within the next five years or, more likely, even within the decade. And if China makes a move in the near term, the exquisite technology that’s going to be fielded in 2035 doesn’t do a damn thing to deter China from taking Taiwan.”
QUESTIONING F-15 PULLOUT: Gallagher and his Republican colleague Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are questioning the wisdom of an Air Force plan to retire older C and D model F-15s now stationed at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, over the next two years and replace them on a temporary basis with rotations of newer F-22s, F-35s, or perhaps the latest version of the F-15, the F-15EX, which is not yet in service.
“We are concerned that DoD’s decision sends the wrong signal, not only to the CCP, but also to our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific,” Rubio and Gallagher wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin earlier this week.
“We believe that DoD’s plans to replace permanently-based fighters with rotational forces will lead to a tangible reduction in American forward combat power in the Indo-Pacific, lowering the bar for aggression and demonstrating a continuing mismatch between the Biden Administration’s talking points on the Indo-Pacific and America’s actual commitments in the region.”
The F-15C/D models at Kadena are on average nearly 40 years old and are the last ones in use by an active-duty squadron. The Air Force said they are increasingly difficult to maintain and, because of their age, have some flight restrictions.
PORTMAN, COONS MEET WITH ZELENSKY: The latest lawmakers to show up in Kyiv to show support for Ukraine are Sens. Rob Portman (R-OH) and Chris Coons (D-DE), who met yesterday with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, and other Ukrainian officials.
“We are here today to underscore the broad support that continues to exist in Congress for the Ukrainian people,” the senators said in a joint statement.
“We also visited the headquarters of Ukrenergo, one example of the Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the largest campaign against civilian energy infrastructure in human history,” they said. “Russian attacks continue to damage the Ukrainian economy and put the lives of millions of Ukrainian civilians at risk as winter approaches. It is one more piece of the series of atrocities Russia has committed during this illegal war.
THE COMING SHOWDOWN IN KHERSON: There is no bigger goal right now for Ukraine than recapturing the southern city Kherson, the only provincial capital captured by Russia in the eight months of war.
The strategic province is vital to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a land bridge to occupied Crimea and also holds the strategic dam that controls the main water supply to Crimea.
Zelensky has vowed to take back the area and continue south to liberate Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. But for now, progress is slow as Russian troops, reinforced by reluctant conscripts, are digging in and Ukrainian forces are mired in the autumn mud.
Yesterday, Austin expressed confidence that Ukrainian troops will be able to push the Russian forces out of the remaining territory to the west of the Dnieper River.
“I certainly believe that they have the capability to do that. Most importantly, the Ukrainians believe that they have the capability to do that,” Austin said. “We’ve seen them engage in a very methodical but effective effort to take back their sovereign territory. I think you’ll see them continue to press until they secure the territory on the west side of the river.”
The latest campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War said that while Russian forces are continuing to withdraw from northwestern Kherson Oblast, “it is still unclear if Russian forces will fight for Kherson City,” noting that Russian-installed deputy Kirill Stremousov said yesterday that Russian forces “will most likely leave for the left [eastern] bank” of the Dnipro River, urging civilians to evacuate from Kherson City “as quickly as possible.”
Ukrainian commanders are wary of the statement, fearing it could be an effort to lure Ukrainian troops into a trap.
UN WATCHDOG FINDS NO EVIDENCE FOR RUSSIA’S ‘DIRTY BOMB’ ALLEGATION AGAINST UKRAINE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US military entering ‘window of maximum danger’
Washington Examiner: North Korean nuclear attack would end Kim regime, US and South Korea affirm
Washington Examiner: North Korea unsuccessfully launches suspected ICBM test and two others
Washington Examiner: North Korea ready to conduct nuclear test, South Korean leader says
Washington Examiner: Turkey continues to block NATO membership for Sweden despite Russia threat
Washington Examiner: UN watchdog finds no evidence for Russia’s ‘dirty bomb’ allegation against Ukraine
Washington Examiner: US personnel have conducted ‘multiple inspections’ of aid in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden’s anti-strategic National Security Strategy
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Waltzing in Beijing, Germany’s Olaf Scholz plays US for a fool
Washington Post: German Leader’s China Trip Echoes Mistakes Made With Putin, Critics Say
Wall Street Journal: Biden-Xi Summit Is Being Planned As Tensions Mount
New York Times: Residents Stocking Up In Kherson As Armies Prepare For A Battle
AP: Ukrainians face nuclear threat with grit and dark humor
AP: NATO Chief Urges Turkey to Endorse Finland, Sweden Accession
Kyodo News: Japan, U.S. And South Korea Eye Talks In Mid-November Over North Korea
Space News: China’s Mystery Spaceplane Releases Object Into Orbit
Seapower Magazine: Vice Adm. Houston: Integration Of Women In Submarine Fleet Key To Future Force
Wall Street Journal: Delays in Boeing’s New Air Force One Cause Costs to Pile Up for Shareholders, Taxpayers
Navy Times: USS Gerald R Ford Hones Air Operations During Initial Deployment
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-16s From Spangdahlem May Head to Kadena After Alaskan F-22s
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Report: Lethal Autonomous Weapons Could Intensify Wars; US Backs Limits
Air Force Times: KC-46 Tanker’s Boom Breaks, Dents Plane While Refueling Fighter Jet
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Looks to Increase ‘Lethality Per Gallon’ With Energy and Climate Goals
Wall Street Journal: Threat Of Attack By Iran Lessens
19fortyfive.com: Why Build a 6th Generation Fighter? The Case for Drone Swarms
New York Times: Deep-Sea Mining Trial Nears End, And Debate Swells
19fortyfive.com: What If Ukraine Wins and Putin Is Removed?
19fortyfive.com: A Warning to Biden: Europe Is Headed for Energy Chaos This Winter
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Smiling: Is Ukraine’s Energy Grid ‘Fried’?
19fortyfive.com: USS Gerald R. Ford: The Navy’s Largest Aircraft Carrier Keeps Making History
The Cipher Brief: Time to Get Tough on Putin’s Dirty Bomb Threat
The Cipher Brief: What Emperor for Life Looks Like in China
Calendar
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 4
12 p.m. 775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution virtual conversation: “The 2022 National Defense Strategy,” with Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-2022-national-defense-strategy
12:30 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “The CCP 20th Party Congress and China’s Road Ahead” https://calendar.gwu.edu/ccp-20th-party-congress-conference
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies event “The 2022 Missile Defense Review,” with John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy, and Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program, and director, Missile Defense Project, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/2022-missile-defense-review
1 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Resolving Tensions Between South Korea and Japan: Creative Approaches to Strengthening the Relationship,” with Jonathan Miller, director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Indo-Pacific Program; Nathan Park, nonresident fellow at the Sejong Institute in South Korea; Alexis Dudden, professor of history at the University of Connecticut; Daniel Sneider, lecturer in East Asian studies at Stanford University; Timothy Webster, professor of law at Western New England University; and Frank Aum, senior expert for Northeast Asia at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/resolving-tensions
1 p.m. 12th St. N.W. — George Mason University-Defense Acquisition University “Acquisition Next” Government Contracting Conference, with Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, and William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment https://web.cvent.com/event
3 p.m. — Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy on Lebanon,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-policy-lebanon-conversation
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 8
4:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu Contact: Thom Shanker [email protected]
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.— Brookings Institution event: “U.S. defense innovation and great power deterrence,” with Chris Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril Industries; David Ochmanek, senior defense analyst, Rand Corporation; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup. The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested [in] a long time.”
Adm. Charles Richard, commander, U.S. Strategic Command, in a speech at a Naval Submarine League’s Annual Symposium
