Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) rose to national prominence as former President Donald Trump’s chief antagonist.
Schiff led the first impeachment effort against Trump and spent months investigating his role in the Capitol riot as a member of the Jan. 6 committee.
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It’s a mantle that earned him scorn from conservatives, who say he pushed a false narrative that Trump colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election. But it also endeared Schiff to liberals, many of whom see him as a “defender of democracy” holding a corrupt politician to account.
Now, as Trump faces charges of falsifying business records and Schiff runs for Senate in California, the House Democrat is once again leaning into his image as Trump’s archenemy.
Schiff launched his campaign in January vowing to fight the “MAGA extremists” who had overtaken the Republican Party. Lawmakers all the way up to Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) were carrying water for the former president, he claimed, and had booted him from his position atop the House Intelligence Committee as political retribution for impeaching Trump.
That narrative was given new life on Thursday when a New York grand jury indicted Trump for his alleged involvement in hush money payments to women accusing him of affairs ahead of the 2016 election.
Schiff has made frequent appearances on MSNBC since then, slamming Republicans for acting like a “surrogate criminal defense team” for the former president. And he’s sent repeated fundraising emails to supporters promising he will challenge Republicans as a member of the Judiciary Committee.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the committee’s chairman, has launched an investigation into the Manhattan district attorney prosecuting the case, accusing him of “weaponizing” the justice system against Trump.
The turn of events has been a political boon for the former president, who has raised millions off the indictment as he mounts a third run for president. But it’s also a stroke of luck for Schiff, strategists say, as he looks to differentiate himself in California’s “jungle primary” for Senate.
The top two finishers will advance to the general election when the state holds its nonpartisan primary next year. Although a Republican has yet to enter the contest, Schiff is facing a tough race from two House Democrats, Reps. Katie Porter (D-CA) and Barbara Lee (D-CA), as he vies to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) in the upper chamber.
“The timing of this couldn’t be better for him,” Steven Maviglio, a Sacramento-based Democratic strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “In many ways, it’s going to be a battle of who is the most anti-Trump Democrat, and all three of them will try to take that mantle. But it’s pretty clear Schiff is in position to actually claim it.”
That’s not Schiff’s only strength heading into 2024. He has establishment backing, including the endorsement of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who is well-liked in the San Francisco Bay Area.
He also started out with more than $20 million in his war chest after cruising to reelection in 2022, though he’ll have to contend with the fundraising powerhouse that is Porter, who outraised every House lawmaker except McCarthy last cycle.
For now, Schiff is bringing in more cash. He raised $6.5 million in the first quarter of 2023, his campaign announced on Thursday, compared to Porter’s $4.5 million.
Ultimately, the biggest challenge for Schiff will be shaking off criticism of his centrist past. The congressman, whose politics evolved as California trended deeper shades of blue, now backs liberal priorities such as “Medicare for all,” but he is still considered the more centrist candidate of the three and at one time belonged to the Blue Dog Democrats in Congress.
Porter and Lee, by contrast, are bona fide progressives. Porter has gone viral for her tough questioning of Big Oil and Wall Street executives at congressional hearings, while Lee is famous for casting the lone vote in Congress against the war in Afghanistan.
Mark DiCamillo, a veteran pollster in California, said Schiff’s attempts to neutralize attacks from his left suggest he views them as a real political liability.
Schiff has sworn off donations from corporate political action committees this cycle and attempted to join the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Facing backlash from members, he withdrew his application earlier this year.
“You know, with Trump, he’s on offense, but in trying to become more identified with the progressive wing, he’s just trying to mollify and reduce the disadvantage that he has among progressive voters,” DiCamillo told the Washington Examiner.
Aiding Schiff is the fact that Trump’s case will easily drag into 2024. Although the former president was arraigned on Tuesday, the next hearing is not until Dec. 4. His attorneys are pushing for a spring 2024 trial, though it could take place as early as January.
The drawn-out timeline means Trump may be looming over the California Senate race when primary voters head to the polls on March 5. The outcome for Schiff could ultimately hinge on what’s top-of-mind for Californians.
“If this election’s going to be about Trump, then it’s in his favor. If it’s going to be about progressive issues, then it’s a toss-up,” Maviglio said. “And right now, the way things are shaping up, it’s going to be about Trump again.”
Maviglio cautioned that a sterling progressive record isn’t the “be-all and end-all” in California politics and noted how Porter and Lee, if they both stay in the race, could inadvertently help Schiff by pulling from the same voters.
“Bernie Sanders barely beat Hillary here. So, if you’re dividing the Bernie vote in two, that’s a win for Adam Schiff,” he said.
DiCamillo, the director of the IGS Poll at the University of California, Berkeley, is curious to see if Trump’s arrest has, in fact, moved the needle for Schiff. His latest survey, taken weeks before the indictment, has Schiff ahead of Porter among Democratic and “no party preference” voters by 3 percentage points, 23% to 20%, with Lee trailing at 8%.
He expects to release their next poll by the end of May.
The findings don’t include Republican voters, given that no GOP candidate has entered the race. But if California Republicans were to put forward a star-powered candidate with financial backing, Maviglio said, it would shake up the dynamics of the race.
In that scenario, a Republican would almost assuredly take one of the top two spots in the nonpartisan primary before struggling to win the general election. Republicans have not won a Senate race in California since 1988.
“That’s almost a default win to get to November, but nothing beyond that,” he said.
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McCarthy, who represents the Bakersfield area, struck a more optimistic tone on Thursday, telling a local reporter there are “a number of Republicans” who could reflect the views of California voters.
“I think a Republican could win,” he said.
