Judge Brett Kavanaugh's two paths to Supreme Court confirmation

No matter who President Trump nominated to fill the vacant Supreme Court seat on Monday, their confirmation process would have played out in a Senate under the control of a slim Republican majority and at the tail end of a midterm election season in which several Democratic incumbents are up for re-election in red states.

That means Trump’s nominee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, could plausibly lose the support of some Republicans — the likely defectors being Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — and still be confirmed.