House Republicans face their toughest re-election in years and could go to battle with insufficient resources to defend their majority after Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., rendered himself a lame duck by announcing he would retire from Congress.
Ryan has raised record amounts of cash for his colleagues during his tenure. The speaker’s allies insisted his stature and close relationships with deep-pocketed donors would keep the money flowing to colleagues struggling to withstand a developing Democratic tsunami driven by dissatisfaction with President Trump.
But veteran GOP operatives and nervous House Republicans dismissed those assurances. They warned that Ryan’s decision to remain in leadership through November would handicap the fundraising power of the speaker’s gavel, removing a crucial weapon from the GOP arsenal and negating a critical advantage the party has over the Democrats.
“He has now done the right thing, but in doing the right thing, put a lot of things in jeopardy,” a Republican congressman said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. “This is wrong from the perspective of trying to win.”
“There’s no way he can continue fundraising,” a Republican political operative added. “Show me someone that is going to give a lame duck speaker a dime and I’ll show you an idiot.”
Ryan is retiring from Congress after 20 years representing Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District. He rose from backbencher in 1999, his first year on Capitol Hill, to the Republican nominee for vice president in 2012, to speaker of the House three years later.
Ryan said he decided to retire because of family considerations and conceded that he briefly pondered delaying his announcement until after he was re-elected to save his party political hardship. But the speaker said that would not have been honest, or fair, to his constituents.
Ryan insisted Wednesday that the timing of his move, and plans to remain as speaker, are not a hindrance to his party’s political prospects, having concluded that he can continue to be effective over the next seven months. “If we do our jobs, which we are, we are going to be fine as a majority,” the speaker told reporters during a news conference.
Ryan, once a conservative folk hero, has seen his relationship with the Republican base wane since the rise of Trump, a populist often at odds with his philosophy and inclusive approach to politics. Their periodic disagreements are why some incumbents are probably relieved that they do not have to answer questions at home about their support for Ryan.
But the speaker’s value as a fundraiser for a precarious 23-seat majority cannot be understated. In the Republican-held seats where control of the House is likely to be contested, Trump tends to be unpopular, and the GOP badly needs money to hold on amid the expected Democratic onslaught.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign arm, has raised nearly $115 million this election cycle. Ryan is responsible for $40 million of that. The super PAC and political nonprofit aligned with Ryan, both of which figure prominently in the party’s strategy to retain the House majority, have raised a combined $90 million.
Officials for the groups said they trust the speaker, who is adamant about his ability to deliver despite his new lame duck status. “He is the single biggest fundraiser we have,” Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, the NRCC chairman, said. “He believes the people he talks to, and his supporters, will stay with him.”
Added Corry Bliss, who runs the super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, and American Action Network, the political nonprofit: “I spoke to the speaker today at length. He reiterated his commitment to protecting the Republican majority this fall and said he’s willing to do whatever it takes to ensure CLF and House Republicans have the resources they need to win in November.”
Republican operatives, and some House Republicans facing uncertain re-election prospects, are unconvinced.
Granted anonymity in a series of interviews, they doubted Ryan’s ability to maintain his fast fundraising pace. The sort of donors that contribute in large amounts usually will shy away from donating to politicians with minimal power. And as a lame duck, Ryan’s immediate power is diminished and his long-term power is nonexistent.
Other senior leaders — House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La. — can pick up some of the slack, as can top committee chairmen. Stivers said he’s received numerous offers to help. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence also are expected to be helpful.
Skeptical Republicans say it won’t be enough to compensate for the loss of a speaker that is fully politically functional, and the House majority will pay the price.
“It is unusual that the speaker wouldn’t lead the majority into an election,” said Tom Reynolds, a former congressman from New York who was chairman of the NRCC in 2006, when Democrats captured the House majority for the first time in a dozen years. “It’s kind of a watershed [moment] for 2018.”
