Georgia Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s precarious campaign to stay in Washington is taking a hit from polling suggesting she’d be defeated by a Democratic challenger in the traditionally red state.
Raphael Warnock, Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta’s senior pastor, is ahead of Loeffler, with 23% of the vote to the senator’s 21%, according to a Merriman River Group poll released Monday.
Loeffler and Warnock both trail front-runner GOP Rep. Doug Collins, who has 27% support. But Warnock’s second-place finish means he’d qualify for the runoff if the special election were held today and Collins didn’t reach the 50% threshold to win outright.
The special election for Loeffler’s seat, to which she was appointed in January after then-Sen. Johnny Isakson stepped down, is a multiparty free-for-all scheduled for Nov. 3. That’s the same day as Georgia’s regular election between Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democratic rival Jon Ossoff.
Collins has been the contest’s longtime favorite, while Loeffler’s efforts were almost derailed by insider trading allegations related to a closed-door Senate COVID-19 briefing at the start of the pandemic. The Department of Justice has since disbanded its investigation into any potential wrongdoing on her part.
Meanwhile, Warnock, who presided over civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis’s funeral last month, has at times been overshadowed by fellow Democrat Matt Lieberman, the son of 2000 vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman. The younger Lieberman faced pressure over the weekend to drop out after complaints regarding his rosy depiction of Ku Klux Klan members in his 2008 self-published novel Lucius.
Warnock is backed by the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, as well as high-profile Georgia Democrats, such as 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. Abrams lost to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp but refused to concede, claiming Kemp engaged in voter suppression.
Democracy in Color’s Steve Phillips commissioned Monday’s poll. His group advocates for more minority people to be elected to public office.
“This race currently tracks @staceyabrams’s gubernatorial bid where Abrams was at 38% in primary when 52% of Black voters were unclear. Once ads clarified things, she got 76% in primary. I expect a similar surge for Warnock in Nov,” he tweeted.
Phillips added: “Just 15% of Dem vote comes from whites, so there’s almost literally no chance for @LiebermanForGa in that race. Which certainly raises some questions. Rise of Warnock is the story.”
Great piece and insight into the (oddly-overlooked) GA Senate race w/@ReverendWarnock. Just a few additional points. I commissioned a private poll from @MerrimanRiver on that race that had Warnock at 23 pts & Lieberman at 13. . . pic.twitter.com/uo1U5HpZcz
— Steve Phillips (@StevePtweets) August 9, 2020
The Merriman River Group polled 1,259 likely Georgia voters between June 18-23 for the survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8%.
