Republicans know what the midterm election polls say. They hear the talk about a blue wave. They’re aware of historical party-in-power midterm losses in the House. But they still see something else, seven weeks out from election day.

“It’s like the hurricane cone,” said one GOP strategist. “It’s out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, and the range of where it can land is huge, because there are a lot of things that are yet to happen that you have to understand.”