Tomorrow, Wisconsin voters can go to the polls in six state senate districts where the incumbent Republican is up for recall, targeted by public employee unions after supporting Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s collective bargaining legislation.
Republicans currently hold a 19-14 majority in the Wisconsin Senate, so Democrats only need to win three of the six races to take a majority. Democrats appear particularly competitive in at least four races.
Incumbents Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper are the two weakest Republicans. Kapanke, who lost a 2010 congressional race by three points, represents a Democratic-leaning district and faces state Rep. Jennifer Shilling.
A Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released today has Shilling up 54-43, although PPP is known as a Democratic-leaning polling firm. Kapanke spokeswoman Jen Harrington remains optimistic because a powerful union-backed group, We Are Wisconsin, seemed to be focusing on another district but thought it necessary to continue working against Kapanke.
“Regardless of the outcome,” Harrington said, “I think it’s going to be a surprise. The Democrats are going to be surprised.” The campaign will host a “teletownhall” tonight and has approximately 40 volunteers knocking on doors.
The beleaguered Hopper declared that his campaign would “be victorious” as Republicans retain control of the Senate. “Voters elected us in 2010 to end the fiscal craziness,” Hopper said. “The thought of rewarding [Democrats] for leaving the state and not doing their jobs – Wisconsin voters won’t stand for that.”
Hopper has some self-inflicted problems. His wife reported that he left her for a younger woman and spends a significant amount of time living out of district since he moved out of the family home.
Even without the personal scandal, Hopper would still have a tough opponent in Democrat Jessica King. Hopper defeated King by 163 votes in a 2008 race with over 80,000 votes cast. Daily Kos/PPP shows Hopper with a 49-48 lead over King, making up a 50-48 deficit in a previous poll. Hopper says that Gov. Scott Walker will do an automated call for him today, and he himself will record one for Election Day.
John Hogan, director of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate, agrees that Hopper is vulnerable but “predict[s] a win,” citing Hooper’s strong grassroots operation and noting that the latest poll began to trend Hopper’s way in the face of high-profile attacks related to his affair.
Hogan says that turnout in these races could top 35% of registered voters. With relatively few undecided voters at play in these campaigns, “persuasive messaging,” Hogan said, “is kind of secondary, in our campaign efforts, to turning out Republican voters.”
Should Hopper and Kapanke both lose, Sen. Alberta Darling and Sen. Luther Olsen will have to be the firebreak for the Republican majority. Olsen is in a traditionally safe Republican district, but holds a bare 50-47 lead over Rep. Fred Clark, D, in today’s PPP poll.
Hogan relies on a strong Republican majority to reelect Olsen. “We’ve balanced the budget without raising taxes, the sky hasn’t fallen, and there’s no debt crisis. So why are we even having a recall?” Hogan asks rhetorically.
Challenged by Rep. Sandy Pasch, D, Darling’s senate race has become the most expensive in Wisconsin history, reportedly topping out at over $8 million in expenditures by the campaign and third-party groups on either side. The anti-Darling campaign has relied on several hot-button claims, such as that Darling wants to end Medicare, while Darling’s proponents have emphasized Pasch’s connection to out-of-district unions and third party groups such as Citizen Action – Wisconsin, a pro-universal health insurance organization that has made independent expenditures against Darling during the recall campaign. The latest available Daily Kos/PPP poll of this race, conducted July 21-24, showed Darling with a 52-47 edge over Pasch, but a lot can change in three weeks.
For instance, Rep. Sheila Harsdoorf, R, has stretched her 5-point lead over Democrat challenger Shelly Moore to a 54-42 gap in today’s PPP poll. Sen. Rob Cowles, R, the sixth Republican up tomorrow, seems likely to survive Democrat Nancy Nusbaum’s challenge, but, as National Review‘s Robert Costa notes, “No one is ready to declare victory.”
Ultimately, Hogan expects Darling to win her race by virtue of a strong ground game and heavy support in her district for Judge Prosser in the recent judicial election.
On scale: one race looks like a lock for Democrats to win, one should go to the Republicans. That leaves Hopper, Darling, Olsen, and Cowles all too close to call.
As one Republican strategist summarized, “The trends are all going our way, but the energy is all on their side.” If Republicans can keep the majority, they’ll have to call it good day.
