Retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea, said Wednesday that North Korea recently blowing up a liaison office with South Korea and signaling that it will remilitarize the security zone must be countered with military measures to shore up the U.S.-South Korea partnership.
“North Korea, I believe, needs to be agitated right now as a result of this so that they feel that they may have overstepped,” Brooks said in a virtual conversation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It’s about causing a change in calculus, not about causing an incident,” he said, suggesting the United States could lift the embargo on strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula.
“I’m talking about nuclear-capable bombers, F-35 joint strike fighters, aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, all of these things that are options to simply show presence,” he said.
Brooks was commander of U.S. Forces Korea between 2016 and 2018, a time when the North and South signed an agreement to lessen tensions in the Demilitarized Zone by suspending military exercises along the border and removing guard posts.
The former commander also suggested that now might be the time to announce U.S.-South Korea exercises planned for later this summer.
“We want to take some steps that cause them to hesitate on the subsequent steps that they already have in mind,” he said.
Brooks said he fully expected North Korean work crews to appear in the border area in the next three to five days to reconstruct the 11 guard posts that were removed in fall 2018 and for the North to reintroduce weapons in the sensitive security zone.
“I really worry about that joint security area because that doesn’t have walls inside of it, and the physical proximity is so close that a miscalculation is highest there,” he said, stressing that military measures must be accompanied by diplomatic efforts.
“There is at least one motivation here that North Korea has: to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul,” he said. “The best leverage that South Korea can use right now is to redouble their relationship with the United States.”
Trump-Kim dialogue still possible
North Korea has a tendency to increase provocations in a U.S. election year, CSIS Korea experts said, noting that a series of measures are likely planned up until November, but the North is demonstrating that it still wants to keep the door open for dialogue with President Trump.
“It’s almost guaranteed that Kim will do something provocative against Washington as well. This is an election year,” said Sue Mi Terry, CSIS Korea chairwoman and a former intelligence officer.
Terry said provocations could include unveiling a new strategic weapon, Kim Jong Un’s promised “Christmas gift” that has yet to materialize. Other options short of nuclear tests include demonstrating advanced missile technologies or further testing of submarine-launched missiles, a demonstration of North Korea’s promise to increase its nuclear deterrence.
“It is very probable that they will soon dial up pressure with Washington after they are done with South Korea,” she said. “I think now, Kim has calculated that it is better to deal with President Trump’s second term or Biden’s first term.”
Dialing up pressure means leverage in a future return to diplomacy, she assessed.
Dr. Victor Cha, former National Security Council Asian affairs director in the George W. Bush administration, believes the North will be careful not to close the door for negotiations with Trump.
“There has not been direct criticism of Trump,” he said. “Maybe they’re trying to preserve the Kim Jong Un-Trump channel if he were to get reelected in November.”
Cha added that difficult conversations with China are necessary to ensure that the country maintains sanctions against North Korea.
All the experts who spoke Wednesday agreed that new hard-line statements by Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, are setting her up for some sort of leadership role while her brother’s health issues remain a mystery.
“Her influence is definitely growing,” said Terry. “The shifting of her to more of a substantive role [than] just carrying pens and ashtrays and helping craft her brother’s persona.”
Brooks agreed: “Kim Yo Jong’s elevation is a change, and it is a very visible one — and it is an intentional one.”
The former commander predicted that the next three months, which include a number of important anniversaries related to the Korean conflict, could be markers for a detente.
“There are ample opportunities for us to capitalize on this,” he said. “Keep the pressure there while seeking an opportunity for engagement, which may be in the offing.”
