As the outsized Baby Boom generation claims Social Security benefits, Americans increasingly doubt whether the program can pay all that it has promised — or even continue to cut checks at all. Social Security’s Trustees warn that unless Congress acts to restore the program’s long-term solvency, by 2034 it will only have funds to pay 77 cents of each dollar. An adjustment this size in 2018 would drop the average annual Social Security payout of $16,848 to $12,973. Most older Americans depend on Social Security for all or a majority of their income.

The longer Congress plays chicken on this issue, the greater the risk that changes such as tax increases or benefit cuts, or a combination, will have major economic impacts on retirees and workers. Program actuaries emphasize the growing ratio of retirees receiving benefits to workers contributing payroll taxes as a major force impinging on the program’s solvency. But other forces are at work. Growing wealth and income inequality have significantly eroded Social Security’s tax base.