Entering No. 10 Downing Street as prime minister on Wednesday, Boris Johnson will finally attain his lifelong ambition. But he faces many challenges — challenges that President Trump can help him overcome.
First and foremost, Johnson must somehow find a way to deliver Brexit by Oct. 31. The European Union is trying to delay Brexit, but Johnson says the date will hold. His challenge, then, is to somehow persuade the EU to grant some more concessions, something the political bloc says it won’t do. Johnson must also persuade a majority in the House of Commons to approve any new deal. This won’t be easy.
Still, Johnson does have one ace up his sleeve in the form of America. Supported by Trump, Johnson will be able to ask Trump to exert new pressure on the EU to make compromises favorable to Britain. Considering ongoing EU economic doubts and Trump’s penchant for tariffs, the EU may well bend to the president’s words.
The Germans are particularly concerned over car exports, and the French, who are ardently opposed to making more concessions to Johnson, would pay attention to any tariff threat against cheese and wine exports. These are two examples of where Trump could exert significant leverage alongside relatively mild requests.
If Johnson can’t get a new deal from the EU, he’ll have to renege on his Oct. 31 at-all-costs pledge and delay Brexit, or attempt to prorogue Parliament. But choosing that latter option, Johnson will almost certainly implode the Conservative-led government by inviting, and losing, a vote of no confidence in Parliament. That will lead to a general election and the real prospect of Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left Labour Party entering power.
Brexit is far from Johnson’s only challenge.
Britain’s economy remains strong but afflicted by doubts over Brexit. Johnson will have to consolidate business by offering a more ardent capitalist vision for the economy. Johnson has done good work here over the past month but will have to work hard to improve things further. Expect much focus on reaching a near-term post-Brexit trade deal with the United States.
If Johnson can deliver a successful Brexit, perhaps with the help of Trump, he will almost consolidate the Conservative Party’s position. He can then call a new election with the confidence of remaining in government for another five years. But if Johnson loses himself in his realm of eccentricity, or fails to get Brexit achieved with parliamentary assent, the Labour Party is likely to enter power before Christmas.
Buckle up.
