Most Americans want the government to do more, rather than backing off from regulation and involvement in people’s lives — marking a shift since the midterm elections last month, when the country was split on the same question.
The change in public opinion, documented in a new George Washington University Battleground Poll released Thursday, could show that Democrats, whose defense of government lies at the heart of the party’s platform, are on firmer political ground than the disappointing midterm elections might have suggested.
But the survey also showed that Republicans and independents are warming to the ideas of government regulation and assistance, indicating there might be an appetite for moderate, results-oriented politicians into 2016.
“The shift came from two places: it came from a softening among Republicans, and it came from independents in a very big way, saying government should do more,” said Ed Goeas, president and CEO of the Tarrance Group, which helped conduct the survey. “What I’m telling my Republican friends out there is, this is very similar to what we saw when [Ronald] Reagan got elected.”
The poll showed 52 percent of Americans think the government should “do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people,” compared to 43 percent of people who thought the government “is doing too many things that should be left to businesses and individuals.”
Immediately after the midterm elections last month, Goeas said, exit polls showed 50 percent of Americans thought the government should do more.
Still, the latest numbers are not nearly as high as when President Obama was first elected. Then, a more commanding majority of Americans looked to the government as a positive force to solve the country’s problems.
But the shift back in the direction of Americans viewing government’s role as larger, rather than smaller, is significant — and could have implications into the 2016 presidential election cycle.
Based on polling they have observed, Goeas and Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, the Democratic firm that helped produce the Battleground Poll, predicted the next election cycle would be won by the candidate who best articulated an economic vision, something with which Democrats have struggled.
“Tell me who’s ahead on the economy the day before the election, and I’ll tell you who’s going to be the next president,” Lake said.
In the upcoming party primaries, Goeas predicted, current or former governors might have an edge in appealing to voters both as problem-solvers and on economic issues.
“I would argue that, on the economic argument, the governors are far ahead of anyone else,” Goeas said.
On the flip side, however, both Goeas and Lake predicted the more ideological candidates will not gain as much traction in the next election.
“The public is clearly not looking for an ideological candidate,” Lake said.
Furthermore, a productive Republican Congress could steer attention away from those types of dogmatic candidates, the pollsters said.
“We have a real quality class coming,” Goeas said, “and I think the more the country sees the quality of that class, the more people like Ted Cruz will fade into the background.”
The Battleground Poll was conducted Dec. 7 to Dec. 11 among 1,000 registered likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
