Is Ohio Gov. John Kasich surging in New Hampshire?
A glance at the popular RealClearPolitics.com polling average would seem to suggest that since it currently shows Kasich as No. 2 in the race for the Granite State’s primary with 12 percent, behind billionaire businessman Donald Trump at 32 percent but ahead of other contenders including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 11.4 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 10.6 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 9.8 percent.
An upset win in New Hampshire would be a considerable boost for Kasich, who is tied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul for seventh place in RealClearPolitics’ national poll average. Kasich’s high number in the state is due largely to the website’s inclusion of polls from Manchester, N.H.-based American Research Group, which have consistently shown stronger support for him than other polls have found.
A new poll by the company out Monday, not included in RCP’s average, has Trump on top at 34 percent, Kasich at 16 percent, Rubio at 11 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.
“We have a tighter voter screening process. … Of the people who definitely say they will vote in the primary, he does better,” said ARG President Dick Bennett when asked about the difference. ARG’s polls haven’t asked Kasich’s fans why they were backing him, Bennett said, but respondents who volunteered information said they liked that the governor “hasn’t gone negative.”
A late January ARG poll put Trump at 31 percent, Kasich at 17 percent and Cruz as the only other one in double digits at 12 percent. The company’s mid-January poll had Trump at 27 percent, Kasich at 20 percent and Rubio third at 10 percent. A poll the week before that had Trump at 25 percent, Kasich and Rubio tied at 14 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 10 percent.
Kasich has largely flown under the radar in the presidential race, with most of the attention focused on Trump and to a lesser extent on Cruz, Rubio, Bush and surgeon Ben Carson. The governor, who as a House lawmaker in the 1990s was a close ally of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich, has run as a moderate statesman, stessing his efforts to help Ohio rebound economically. His bid has been endorsed by the New York Times and the Boston Globe.
Kasich spokesman Chris Schrimpf pointed out that the campaign was now drawing fire from others as proof that it was surging. “We feel really good about where we are at in New Hampshire and the evidence is that Bush and Christie are now spending millions to try and smear us. When you are rising, others get negative and try and tear you down,” Schrimpf said.
Other New Hampshire polls have shown Kasich doing relatively well, usually in the top five candidates, but not as strongly as the ARG ones. The governor’s campaign notes that nine polls in January have had him at least tied for second place. In each case though, he is still well behind Trump.
The most recent CNN poll put Trump in the lead at 30 percent, distantly followed by Cruz at 12 percent, Rubio at 11 percent and Kasich at 9 percent. An Emerson College poll last week had Trump at 35 percent, Bush at 18 percent and Kasich at 14 percent. A Suffolk University poll last week had Trump at 27 percent, Kasich and Rubio tied for second at 12 percent, Bush at 11 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.
American Enterprise Institute polling expert Karlyn Bowman said Kasich’s support could shift radically in the next 48 hours. The results of Monday’s Iowa caucuses have historically scrambled the subsequent New Hampshire race.
“I think his standing and that of the other candidates, whatever they are, could be altered by what happens in Iowa tonight,” she said.
