There are 36 states gearing up to elect new governors in the 2022 midterm elections, setting the stage for what the political playing field might look like for the next four years.
Of the 36 races, 16 seats are held by Democrats and 20 are held by Republicans. Democrats are expected to hold onto at least 12 of their seats and are even projected to pick up two seats currently held by Republicans in Maryland and Massachusetts, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Meanwhile, Republicans are projected to hold onto at least 17 of their seats.
MIDTERMS 2022 LIVE: UPDATES FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AHEAD OF CRUCIAL ELECTION
Although governor’s races don’t typically get the same widespread attention as House and Senate elections, the outcomes are likely to have significant implications for how state laws will shift over the next several years. It will also have an impact on how states administer the 2024 presidential election.
Here’s a breakdown of the top seven governor’s races to watch on Tuesday:
Kansas
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly is considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic governors seeking reelection in 2022, facing a tough challenge from Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt.
Kelly was first elected in 2018 after managing to upset Republican nominee Kris Kobach, who lost largely due to his controversial nature coupled with the Democratic blue wave that aided Kelly. However, some saw her 2018 win as a fluke — making her a top target among Republicans in the 2022 midterm cycle.
Kelly has maintained strong performances in polling throughout the midterm cycle, leading Schmidt 49% to 44%, according to a recent poll by the Hill and Emerson College. However, the race is still considered to be a toss-up by top election forecasters.
Nevada
Republicans look poised to win back the governor’s mansion in the battleground state of Nevada as GOP candidate Joe Lombardo continues to lead Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak in the polls.
Lombardo emerged as a clear favorite among GOP voters during the primary election, polling far ahead of all his Republican rivals — even picking up a coveted endorsement from former President Donald Trump. The Republican also benefited from strong polling numbers in the final stretch of the midterm cycle, leading Sisolak by four percentage points as of Wednesday, according to polling from the Hill and Emerson College.
Lombardo’s victory would mark a big win for Republicans, giving the GOP more influence over state laws passed by the Democratic-led legislature, acting as the final hurdle before legislation can be passed.
Oregon
Oregon has emerged as one of the most unpredictable governor’s races in the midterm elections after third-party candidate state Sen. Betsy Johnson entered the ring, shaking up a race that was initially predicted to lean Democrat.
Johnson’s name on the ballot threatens to split the electorate between herself, a onetime Democrat, and liberal Tina Kotek, giving Republican contender Christine Drazan a path to victory. A GOP victory in November would mark the first time a Republican won control of Oregon’s governor’s mansion in roughly four decades.
Polling has been tight between Kotek and Drazan, with the Republican candidate leading in most major polls. A recent survey from Data for Progress shows her leading Kotek 43% to 42%, with Johnson pulling in 12%.
Wisconsin
The Wisconsin governor’s race has also shaped up to be a deadlocked contest, with Republican Tim Michels posing a tough challenge to incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, who emerged as a top GOP target during the 2022 cycle because of his frequent disagreements with the Republican-led legislature.
Michels, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, sought to align himself with the state legislature, running as a political outsider while leaving questions unanswered on how he would govern the state. However, Republicans embraced him as their candidate to unseat Evers, whom they have become increasingly frustrated with in recent years as he repeatedly blocked their attempts at passing tighter election laws.
The most recent polling found the race to be a dead heat, with Evers and Michels tied 48% to 48%, according to a survey from Marquette University Law School.
Arizona
All eyes have been on the governor’s race in Arizona as Gov. Doug Ducey’s tenure comes to a close, with the race between Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs facing off against Trump-backed Kari Lake.
The Arizona governor’s race could have huge implications for how the swing state administers the presidential election in 2024, particularly after the state saw repeated challenges and audits after President Joe Biden defeated Trump in 2020. That incident fueled Lake’s candidacy, with the Republican campaigning on a platform that elevated Trump’s claims of a stolen election.
In response, Hobbs has based much of her campaign defending how the state administered the 2020 election, which she helped lead in her position as secretary of state.
Average national polling shows Lake leading Hobbs 48.9% to 46.4%, according to election forecaster FiveThirtyEight. The race is deemed a toss-up.
Georgia
The Georgia governor’s race, although not as competitive, has also emerged as one of the most closely watched elections of the midterm cycle.
Gov. Brian Kemp faces a challenge from Democrat Stacey Abrams, setting the stage for a rematch from when the two competed for the governor’s mansion in 2018. Kemp defeated Abrams by less than two percentage points, making it the closest governor’s race in the state of Georgia since 1966.
Abrams has focused much of her campaign on voting rights and ballot access, particularly after her loss to Kemp in 2018, which she said was a result of voter suppression. The Democratic candidate later acknowledged Kemp had won the election despite never conceding, prompting criticism from Republicans who have called her actions the original “Big Lie.”
Kemp has maintained a healthy lead over Abrams 51% to 45%, according to the most recent polling from Marist College. The race is predicted to lean Republican.
Michigan
The governor’s race in Michigan has long been considered to be safe territory for Democrats, although polling has tightened in recent weeks prompting forecasters to rank it as only “leaning Democrat.” However, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appears to be in good hands.
Whitmer faces a challenge from Republican Tudor Dixon, who has sought to attack the Democratic incumbent for her decision to close schools amid the COVID-19 pandemic and other education policies. However, Whitmer benefited from her stances supporting access to abortion, which has resonated with Michigan voters and is likely to motivate voter turnout next week.
National average polling shows Whitmer leading Dixon 49.9% to 45%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
New York
The governor’s race in New York has made national headlines in yet another reliably blue state that Democrats have considered a safe seat as Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D-NY) lead began narrowing in the weeks leading up to Election Day.
Hochul faces a challenge from Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY). After leading her opponent with a double-digit lead for much of the midterm campaign, her lead has decreased by almost 50% since the beginning of October, falling from a 14-point lead on Oct. 1 to just seven points by Nov. 4, according to FiveThirtyEight.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Although most polling has Hochul leading, one survey from the Trafalgar Group conducted between Oct. 27-31 found Zeldin leading by one point.
National Democrats have also thrown their skin into the game, with big names such as President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton all traveling to New York to stump for Hochul in the final week before Election Day.
