An offseason that had seen little to no action for the Nationals just got a lot more interesting. The team has traded four of its top minor-league prospects to the Oakland Athletics for left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez, according to baseball sources. The deal is pending a physical for all parties. ESPN’s Keith Law first reported the deal via Twitter.
Going out the door: Pitchers A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Brad Peacock and catcher Derek Norris. For those counting, that’s Baseball America’s No. 3 (Peacock), No. 4 (Cole) and No. 9 (Norris) prospects in the farm system. That list that appeared on the publication’s web site in November.
Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA in 2010 and returned last season with a 3.12 ERA. He pitched in Oakland Coliseum – known now, ridiculously, as O.com Coliseum – which has long been a notorious pitcher’s park with huge swaths of foul territory behind home plate and down the lines in left and right. Gonzalez pitched 200 2/3 innings two years ago and 202 last season so he has a track record of durability. He is also a strikeout pitcher, tied for 17th last season among all big-league pitchers with 197.
And that’s good. Because Gonzalez is a walk machine. He led the sport with 91 last season and averaged 4.09 walks per nine innings when you combine his last two seasons. He gets away with it by being difficult to hit. There’s that 8.23 strikeouts per nine innings rate. Gonzalez is also under team control through 2015. He can get raises through arbitration, but he can’t leave as a free agent until after that season. That gives Washington four years with Gonzalez, ace Stephen Strasburg, 23, and Jordan Zimmerman, 25 as the heart of a promising starting rotation.
But the price was steep. Peacock, 23, projects as a No. 3 starter in the big leagues with a dominant change-up and solid low 90s velocity on his fastball. He doesn’t really have a consistent third pitch, though he flashed a nice knuckle curveball at times during his September promotion to Washington at the end of last season.
Cole was their baby, a fourth-round draft pick in 2010 who signed way over slot for $2 million. You don’t shell out that cash unless you love a player. The right-hander had a 4.04 ERA for low-A Hagerstown in 2011 at age 19. Fastball sat in the mid-90s. Saw him pitch a few times in person and he was impressive and – at 6-foot-4, 180 pounds – projectable. Still so young, but likely has the highest upside of any player in this trade, including Gonzalez.
Milone, 24, is about what he is right now – a smart, athletic lefty who will never be a power pitcher. He had unreal control in the minor leagues and walked just four batters in five starts with the Nats in September. But he also allowed 28 hits in 26 innings and only rarely hits the high 80s with his fastball. Not to say he won’t be a good major-league pitcher. But his margin for error will always be smaller. Milone’s skills at the plate are kind of useless now, too, stuck in the American League, which is a shame. Only because the kid was fun to watch.
As for Norris, 22 – he’s been a favorite of Nats prospect watchers for years. A fourth-round draft choice in 2007, he dropped to No. 9 in BA’s rankings this fall thanks in large part to struggles at the plate. That’s ironic because it was always Norris’ defense that’s worried scouts, not his bat. But he made such strides at catcher that most don’t see that as an issue going forward. While batting average isn’t everything, Norris hitting .210 in 2011 was absolutely a concern. The year before he hit .235. He makes up for a low average with excellent pitch recognition. In five minor-league seasons his on-base percentage is a combined .403. He can draw walks and hit for power (55 homers last three minor-league seasons). That should be enough to make Norris a big-league regular, if not a star.
“We know [Norris] can hit,” Washington general manager Mike Rizzo told me last month during a conference call with reporters. “We know he’s got power, he’s a high on-base percentage guy. He’s got a short compact stroke…Package that with a plus arm, and now his feet are working, he’s blocking pitches and pitchers love throwing to him. That’s a really exciting package for us going into next season.”
Rizzo said team officials wondered if Norris was just trying too hard to escape an early rut last season and emphasized that the peripheral stats were still good. He’ll have to make adjustments to pitchers in the upper minors. But he gives Oakland another promising piece in this trade. The sting for the Nats is lessened by the presence of Wilson Ramos, himself just 24, already in the majors and more nice catching prospects in the lower minors.
So was it worth it? Some will argue the Nats could have papered over the rotation with money and signed a free agent while using these prospects for a big bat. For the immediate future they win the trade just by adding a proven piece to the puzzle. With Strasburg on an innings limit for next year it will be nice to have a durable pitcher to take up some of that slack. Down the road? If Cole becomes a star or three of the four become contributing regulars for the A’s then the decision tilts in Oakland’s favor. It’s the risk general managers take.
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