An expected Peronist victory in the October-November Argentine presidential election will increase tensions between that nation and Britain. Front and center will be an increasingly hawkish Argentine position towards the Falkland Islands.
A British territory in the southern Atlantic Ocean, the Falkland Islands are claimed by Argentina under the title of the Malvinas Islands. In April 1982, Argentina launched a surprise invasion of the islands, seizing them until a British task force retook the territory in June of that year. But while a great number of things have obviously changed over the past 37 years, the Falklands remain a sticking point in British-Argentine relations.
With Peronist presidential candidate Alberto Fernández likely to win the election, tensions are sure to increase.
In a recent presidential debate, Fernández attacked incumbent President Mauricio Macri as having “forgot about our sovereignty over the Malvinas. But we will insist again. In memory of those soldiers, I’ll make sure things are different.” Retaining former president and ardent nationalist-populist Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as his running mate, Fernández’s words cannot be discounted. Moreover, considering Fernández-Kirchner’s mad economic plans to increase spending and avoid the massive structural reforms necessary to attract foreign investment, Argentina’s economy is heading into even worse waters. Focusing on “the Malvinas” is one way that the presumed next president and vice president can hope to distract their citizens.
How would they go about making a big deal over the islands? Perhaps with harassing flights to and from the islands. Or by sending fishing and energy extraction vessels into the islands’ exclusive economic area. Or by raising repeated complaints at the United Nations.
Still, a second Argentine invasion is unlikely. For one thing, the islands are far better defended in 2019 than in 1982. Today’s defensive portfolio includes the modern Sky Sabre air defense system, a flight of four Typhoon fighter jets, a small garrison of British Army personnel, an effective national guard force, and a Royal Navy warship. British Astute and Trafalgar class attack submarines are occasionally routed into the islands’ proximity. This unseen, unsaid submarine threat provides outsize deterrence against an Argentine invasion.
Today, British intelligence also places a greater premium on — and retains a greater signal intelligence capability toward — monitoring Argentine government and military activities. This makes it likely the United Kingdom would be able to anticipate escalating tensions and deploy more forces to the island if necessary. Finally, the Falklands can now support landing by large troop transports. And President Trump says he would support Britain if it were ever attacked.
On the flip side, the Argentine military is in a very poor position. As shown by its tragic loss of a submarine last year, Argentina’s air force and navy are outdated, underfunded, and underarmed. And the Argentine army lacks the rapid deployment capability necessary to overwhelm the Falklands’ defenses.
So although tensions are sure to increase, bloodshed is fortunately unlikely.
