The Texas primaries offered us a first real glimpse into what the national environment in the 2022 midterm elections will look like. Turns out, things look as bleak for Democrats as has been predicted all along.
Republicans had a much higher turnout during the primary for governor than they had in 2018. They also outvoted Democrats in primaries for statewide offices 2-to-1, a notable improvement from the 1.5-to-1 difference in the 2018 primaries. Democrats had roughly the same turnout as in 2018, but Republicans added about 400,000 voters.
Republican turnout is consistently higher than Democratic turnout. Democrats narrowed the gap in 2018 but the gap widened again a little in 2022. pic.twitter.com/bd2NG0WAEx
— Brandon Rottinghaus (@bjrottinghaus) March 3, 2022
Perhaps more importantly, Republicans saw strong turnout in the state’s southern border counties — another indication the gains the party has made among Hispanics in Texas are not a fluke. The Republican surge among Hispanics includes up to eight potential GOP nominees for Congress, including three candidates in the Rio Grande Valley who could be GOP members of Congress by this time next year.
After last night, Republicans likely have a full slate of Latinas contesting three Rio Grande Valley seats: #TX15 Monica De La Cruz#TX28 Cassy Garcia (pending runoff)#TX34 Mayra Flores
Rs already favored in #TX15, but all three could be in play in a total Dem collapse.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 2, 2022
This was the first real test of what the 2022 midterm elections will look like, and it hits every note the GOP could hope for. The share of the primary vote is far more like the 2010 and 2014 Republican wave years than it is like 2018. The party is cementing gains among Hispanic voters despite years of Democratic guarantees about demographics turning Texas blue. And to top it all off, improved turnout once again contradicts the lie of Democratic wailing about voter suppression — as if that ridiculous narrative needed to be addressed any further.
Given that Beto O’Rourke, a liberal gun-grabber who has made a career out of losing elections, will sit atop the Democratic ticket, Republicans should feel good about turning a strong Texas primary showing into general election results. While we don’t know exactly how other states will vote come November, these results match the strong Republican performances in Virginia and New Jersey last year.
Once again, it appears the only thing that can stop the Republican Party from routing Democrats in November is the Republican Party itself. The results in Texas are exactly what Republicans statewide and nationwide were hoping for, and they offer more evidence that the 2022 midterm elections should be a resounding success.
