California Republicans, long in the wilderness, have now reached the point of desperation.
As of this writing, California Democrats had won every statewide race, a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature, and were on track to pick up as many as seven congressional districts. When all the votes are counted, Orange County — once considered the country’s “Most Republican County” — won’t have a single Republican representative in Washington, D.C.
A convenient narrative has formed: California Republicans are a casualty of President Trump. Yet, the party’s problems have been around longer and run much deeper than any one person. From money to grassroots organization, California Republicans are completely outmatched.
Money: This election, California campaign spending exceeded $1 billion with $287 million spent on California’s congressional campaigns. Overwhelmingly, this massive spending aided Democrats. In California, Democrats have achieved fundraising domination thanks to two billionaires, labor unions, and even the state’s business community bankrolling year-round campaigns.
Nowhere was this more apparent than in California’s 39th Congressional District, which saw $34.5 million in total spending. Republican Young Kim was outspent by a five-to-one ratio in direct contributions. The 48th District wasn’t far behind with Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher substantially outspent in a $33 million race. In the 25th Congressional District, Democrat Katie Hill defeated incumbent GOP Rep. Steve Knight with the help of $4.5 million from billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC. Remember when progressives complained about Citizens United?
Organization: Democrats are investing their money in a sophisticated, year-round campaign operation. Billionaire Tom Steyer funneled $3.8 million for targeted youth voter registration, voter contact and get-out-the-vote efforts just in California. In a pre-election memo, Steyer’s NextGen America detailed how 68 staff members recruited nearly a thousand volunteers to register more than 28,000 youth voters in a half-dozen targeted California congressional seats.
Those efforts paid off, most notably, in California’s 45th Congressional District, where Democrat Katie Porter is likely to defeat GOP Rep. Mimi Walters. The Democrat posted North Korea-style returns in one UC Irvine precinct, earning 92 percent of the vote.
Data: Aided by Silicon Valley, Democratic operatives are masterfully collecting individual voter data from online and offline sources. While Republican campaigns are busy flooding the airwaves and cluttering mailboxes with tired ads, Democrats are A/B testing thousands of online ads in each campaign.
This data allows Democrats to pinpoint which individual voters in pure Republican households are most receptive to crossing party lines. At Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s campaign, we received daily reports of Democrats repeatedly visiting GOP households asking to speak with one member of the household about a single issue.
Voter Registration: With limited resources, California Republicans have all but abandoned any semblance of a voter registration program. Meanwhile, Democrats have invested in ongoing voter registration programs targeted in the state’s competitive congressional districts.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, notes that voter registration in California’s 39th and 45th congressional districts “have seen a tripling of total registrations and nine-fold increases in re-registration compared to 2014.”
Mobilization: Democrats have deployed social media campaigns in tactical ways that increase a voter’s commitment level and boost turnout. A Los Angeles Times analysis of the 2018 Primary found that youth voter turnout had more than doubled compared to 2014. This resulted in borderline fraudulent turnout rates outdoing dead voters in Chicago. Heralding the success of Steyer’s operation, Teen Vogue celebrated the 126 percent voter turnout at one precinct near Stanislaus State University.
Grassroots: Democrats have cultivated a national network of grassroots activists to support their targeted campaigns. Even opposition research has been outsourced to an army of dedicated volunteers. Former Barack Obama operative John Burton’s Citizen Strong organization recruited an army of amateur opposition researchers to “read every line of every document” of targeted Republicans’ lives, voting records, and disclosure reports.
“There’s so much just sitting out there that’s been made available through sunshine laws, through states posting personal financial disclosures and putting lobbyist disclosures online, and through social media,” Burton told Bloomberg before the election.
Demographics: All of these problems have contributed to a vicious demographic cycle for California Republicans. Since 2007, California has experienced a net domestic out-migration of a million citizens. As Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, points out, this mass migration includes a larger number of California conservatives fleeing to Texas. Former California congressional candidate Paul Chabot not only left California, but has incorporated a business to help other California conservatives leave the state.
To blame the president is to remain in denial about the real causes of California Republicans’ staggering setbacks.
Shawn Steel, a former California Republican Party chair, is California’s committeeman for the Republican National Committee.
