The highly-respected Des Moines Register poll released Saturday evening shows Republican Joni Ernst opening up a substantial lead over Democrat Bruce Braley:
Ernst, a state senator and military leader, enjoys 51 percent support among likely voters. That’s a majority, and it’s her biggest lead in the three Iowa Polls conducted this fall. Braley, a congressman and trial lawyer, gets 44 percent, according to The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa Poll before Tuesday’s election.
“This race looks like it’s decided,” said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll for the Register. “That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that.”
Before this poll was released, Ernst led Braley by a little over 1 percentage point in the RealClearPolitics polling average. If the Des Moines Register poll is correct, and Republicans win Iowa, then it will be very difficult for Democrats to keep the Senate.
Polls now show Republicans making likely pick-ups in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Four more Democratic seats–in Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, and Louisiana (after a run-off)–are now leaning toward Republicans (though Alaska, which has historically been difficult to poll, remains the most uncertain). Republicans are at risk of losing seats in Kansas and (to a lesser extent) Georgia, but have a good opportunity to pick up North Carolina and (to a lesser extent) New Hampshire, where Democrats hold small leads in the polls.
