It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, or New Year’s at least, for the start of the presidential primary season.
The primary election calendar, scheduled to start in February, may move up to early January, with candidates campaigning through the holidays if Florida officials on Friday approve moving the Sunshine State’s Republican presidential primary to Jan. 31.
Florida’s anticipated move would mean that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada would likely move their presidential primaries and caucuses from February to early January because Republican Party rules require those four states to go first.
“We may be watching lots of campaign ads along with ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ during the holiday season,” said University of Florida political science professor Stephen Craig. “Not the sort of thing that’s likely to make already frustrated voters feel more positively about the political process.”
But the Florida GOP believes the state deserves a top spot in the primary process, in part because of its size and also because it is considered a swing state that will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the general election.
“The part that makes sense to us is that Florida, given its prominence on the national stage, deserves to be early and on a date of its own,” said Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida.
The decision will be made by a commission of nine appointed lawmakers and former lawmakers tapped by the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature.
Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon said Wednesday that he would announce the Jan. 31 date on Friday, a day before the deadline for states to set their primary calendars.
Republican officials told The Washington Examiner that the commission wants to set Florida’s primary for the last Tuesday in January to get ahead of other states that are threatening to go earlier, including Georgia and Missouri.
“We don’t want to get ahead of the four early states,” one official said. “But we also don’t want the fifth position to be taken away from us. That’s the calculation.”
But the Florida Republican Party could face a penalty from the national party, whose rules state that only the early four states may hold a primary or caucus before March.
Florida is well aware of the consequences of breaking these rules. In 2008, it moved its primary to late January and, as a result, Democratic candidates pledged to boycott the state and the vote of each of Florida’s convention delegates was cut in half. Florida ultimately played a smaller role in choosing the president. Michigan, which also moved its primary in 2008, suffered a similar fate.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said this time around the Republican National Committee may not punish Florida in part because it is a key swing state and the site of the 2012 Republican nominating convention.
“Florida knows how important it is to the nomination and the general election so it is daring the RNC to penalize the home delegation, where the convention is held,” Sabato said. “By August the RNC might well blink and forgive all calendar transgressions, thereby guaranteeing the country the same fate in 2016.”
