The national security ramifications of Trump’s document case, and he just might beat the rap

Speaking at the Georgia state GOP convention in Columbus Saturday, Trump attacked special counsel Jack Smith as “deranged” and a Trump hater. “The ridiculous and baseless indictment of me by the Biden administration’s weaponized ‘Department of Injustice’ will go down as among the most horrific abuses of power in the history of our country,” he said. “This vicious persecution is a travesty of justice.”

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL CONTINUE RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IF CONVICTED

THE CHARGES: The 49-page indictment detailing the charges against Trump unsealed Friday was designed to be a readable document complete with photos of the boxes alleged to contain classified documents and with minimum legalese. You can read it here.

“The classified documents TRUMP stored in his boxes included information regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to a foreign attack,” the indictment alleges.

Trump is charged not only with hiding the 102 documents in an effort to willfully retain them and obstructing justice by having his lawyers submit false statements to the government but also with showing some of them to others not authorized to see them.

“In July 2021, at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, during an audio-recorded meeting with a writer, a publisher, and two members of his staff, none of whom possessed a security clearance, TRUMP showed and described a ‘plan of attack’ that TRUMP said was prepared for him by the Department of Defense and a senior military official,” the indictment states, in what appears to be a reference to contingency plans to attack Iran that, at the time, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley was strongly advising against.

“As president I could have declassified it. Now I can’t, you know, but this is still a secret,” Trump is alleged to have said on the recording, in what is an apparent admission the document had not been declassified contrary to his public protestations.

In a second instance a month or two later, he is also alleged to have shown a member of his political action committee “a classified map related to a military operation.” On social media, many people wondered if that might have been connected to singer Kid Rock, who in October of 2022 said in an interview with Fox News’s Tucker Carlson that Trump showed him maps and asked “What do you think we should do about North Korea?”

Rock said to the Fox News host: “I’m like, ‘What? I don’t think I’m qualified to answer this.’”

SIX OF THE MOST SHOCKING DETAILS REVEALED IN CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS INVESTIGATION

‘THESE FACTS ARE DEVASTATING’: Taken at face value, the indictment poses a significant legal challenge for Trump. “These facts are devastating,” said former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was on Trump’s team in 2016 but is now among his sharpest critics and running against him for president.

“I did this for seven years, as the U.S. attorney in New Jersey, the fifth largest US attorney’s office out of the 93 in the country, put 130 political corruption prosecutions against Republicans and Democrats and didn’t lose one. So, I know how this stuff works,” Christie said on CNN.

“It’s a very, very evidence-filled indictment,” Christie said. “They have tape recordings, they have electronic text messages and e-mails, and that they have the testimony of dozens of people who were right around Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago and in Bedminster over time.”

“The evidence here is quite strong,” said George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley on Fox News Sunday. “The problem is that he’s got to run the table. He’s 76 years old. All the government has to do is stick the landing on one count, and he could have a terminal sentence.”

“If even half of it is true, then he’s toast. I mean, it’s a pretty — it’s a very detailed indictment, and it’s very, very damning,” said Trump’s former Attorney General Bill Barr on the same program. “And this idea of presenting Trump as a victim here — a victim of a witch hunt is ridiculous. Yes, he’s been a victim in the past. Yes, his adversaries have obsessively pursued him with phony claims. And I’ve been by his side defending against them when he is a victim. But this is much different. He’s not a victim here. He was totally wrong that he had the right to have those documents… and he kept them in a way at Mar-a-Lago, that anyone who really cares about national security would — their stomach would churn at it.”

BILL BARR ON TRUMP INDICTMENT: IF ‘HALF OF IT IS TRUE, THEN HE’S TOAST’

NOT A SLAM DUNK: Despite the damning evidence against him, there are a number of ways Trump could avoid the legal consequences of his actions.

He could win in court. The trial judge, which for now is Aileen Cannon, who has shown prior sympathy with arguments advanced by Trump’s lawyers, has the discretion, which is not reviewable, to exclude key evidence, such as privileged communications with his attorney.

That could weaken the government’s case and could, in theory, result in the judge ruling there is insufficient evidence to proceed with the trial.

He could win the election. If the trial goes forward and is not wrapped up before the 2024 election (which is likely), and Trump is elected, he could simply order the Justice Department to drop the charges. Trump’s legal team will likely try to draw out the process as long as possible with challenges and appeals.

Should Trump lose but another Republican is elected, they are likely to end the trial or pardon Trump if he were to be convicted.

POLL SHOWS FORMER PRESIDENT HANDILY LEADS GOP FIELD DESPITE CHARGES

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden meets with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in the Oval Office at 3:15 p.m. The agenda for the meeting is a review of how Ukraine’s counteroffensive is going and preparations for next month’s summit of NATO leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania.

There is no press event planned, but in a podcast interview last week, Stoltenberg said the war has entered a critical phase. “What we know is that the Ukrainians have proven that they are able to push back the Russian forces, as they did in the north around Kyiv, just after a few weeks, in the east around Kharkiv and then in the south around Kherson,” he said.

“No one can tell exactly how this war ends but what we do know is that what happens around a negotiating table at some stage, hopefully will bring an end to this war. It totally depends on what goes on, on the battlefield. So we need to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the battlefield to enable them to get an outcome of this war which ensures that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation, and that President Putin does not win this war.”

During his two days in Washington, Stoltenberg is also scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and members of the Senate NATO Observer Group.

THE FOG OF WAR: There’s a lot we don’t know about what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, as Ukrainian tanks and infantry have launched major attacks against Russian defenses at several points along the southern and eastern front lines.

It appears that some small villages have been liberated, but in some areas, Russian forces are putting up a credible defense and successfully destroying some of the Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles.

“Over the last week, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has maintained a high public profile,” said the British Defense Ministry in a Twitter update, suggesting that Shoigu has been making “almost certainly seriously exaggerated claims about Ukrainian losses.”

Some reports on social media claim Ukrainian saboteurs have blown up sections of two rail lines that supply Crimea from the northeast and west.

“Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay,” said the Institute for the Study of War in its daily update. “Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces advanced 300 to 1,500 meters in southern Ukraine.”

ZELENSKY SAYS ‘COUNTEROFFENSIVE ACTIONS’ IN UKRAINE ARE UNDERWAY

TRUMP’S ‘BODY MAN’: Trump is not the only one due in federal court tomorrow. His personal valet, a 20-year Navy veteran, is also charged with conspiracy for allegedly following Trump’s orders to move boxes of documents to hide them from his attorneys and then lying about it to the FBI.

Waltine ‘Walt’ Nauta had a spotless military record as a senior chief culinary specialist and ended up assigned to the White House as a valet and became an executive assistant to Trump, and according to the indictment, served as Trump’s personal aide or “body man,” reporting to the president, working closely with him, and traveling with him.

“I think there’s also a sad story,” said former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) on CNN. “The other guy that has been indicted with Donald Trump was his navy butler or whatever the attendant is … He served his country honorably, goes to work for Donald Trump, and basically does Donald Trump’s dirty work, basically at Donald Trump’s request.”

“And while he should be held accountable, of course, it is yet another casualty in the circle of Donald Trump,” Kinzinger said.

LIBERTY? NO THANKS, GIVE ME BRAGG: As part of its congressional mandate to remove the names of Confederate Army officers from U.S. Army bases, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, became Fort Liberty Friday.

President Joe Biden paid a visit to the base to sign an executive order that aims to bolster job opportunities for military and veteran spouses.

Almost immediately, Republican presidential candidates Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence vowed to reverse the name change that is required by law.

Speaking at the Republican Party convention in Greensboro, North Carolina, DeSantis vowed as president to restore the name of Fort Bragg to the base. “The people who have served there are proud of their service there,” he said. “It’s an iconic name and iconic base, and we’re not gonna let political correctness run amok in North Carolina.”

The next day, Pence made the same pledge. “We will end the political correctness in the hallways of the Pentagon and North Carolina will once again be home to Fort Bragg,” he told the state GOP convention to a round of applause.

The base was originally named in 1918 for Gen. Braxton Bragg, a Confederate general and slave owner, who, according to a 2016 biography, Braxton Bragg: The Most Hated Man of the Confederacy, “earned a reputation for incompetence, for wantonly shooting his own soldiers, and for losing battles.”

BIDEN SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER TO HELP MILITARY SPOUSES GET AND KEEP JOBS

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Donald Trump indicted: Six of the most shocking details revealed in classified documents investigation

Washington Examiner: Trump properties raked in more money from Pentagon than previously known

Washington Examiner: Senate presses on with Ukraine funding push despite McCarthy comments

Washington Examiner: Zelensky says ‘counteroffensive actions’ in Ukraine are underway

Washington Examiner: Russian manufacturing plant for Iranian drones could be operational by early next year

Washington Examiner: Bipartisan House members push Biden on long-range missiles for Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Putin says Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus next month

Washington Examiner: Biden signs executive order to help military spouses get and keep jobs

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Congress must summon General Dynamics Electric Boat executives and Navy to testify on submarine delays

Reuters: Ukraine Says It Retakes Village in ‘First Results’ of Counterattack

CBS: Putin Says Russia Will Deploy Nuclear Weapons in Belarus, Ukraine’s Neighbor to the North, in Early July

Politico: The Pentagon Is Freaking Out About a Potential War With China

The Messenger: Who is Walt Nauta – the Alleged Co-Conspirator in the Trump Indictment?

Breaking Defense: HASC Subcommittee Mark Allows A-10 Retirements, Sets Provisions for NGAD, CCA, FARA

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New GAO Report: Strategic Missiles At or Below Cost, But Sentinel Faces Year Delay

Air & Space Forces Magazine: GAO Notes Risks to Space Force Satellite Programs

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Women Want One Thing: ‘Make Us More Lethal’

19fortyfive.com: Is Joe Biden Hiding Intelligence on China’s Assistance to Russia?

19fortyfive.com: Reinvent the Submarine Force to Beat China

Calendar

MONDAY | JUNE 12

9:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “NATO Summit Preview with Chairs of European Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committees,” with Zygimantas Pavilionis, chairman of the Lithuanian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee; Michael Aastrup Jensen, chairman of the Danish Parliament’s Foreign Policy Committee; Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee; Radoslaw Fogiel, chairman of the Polish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee; Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Interparliamentary Cooperation Committee; and Peter Rough, senior fellow and director of the Hudson Institute’s Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/nato-summit-preview

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “The challenges and opportunities facing the Space Force,” with Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations at the Space Force https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

2 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Disclosure Project news conference: “UFO’s (Unidentified Flying Objects)/UAPs (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena), advanced energy and propulsion systems, and compelling evidence on the subject of extraterrestrial intelligence and covert government projects that are being run illegally,” with Steven Greer, founder of the Disclosure Project https://www.press.org/events/ufouap-disclosure-press-conference

6 p.m. — House Armed Services Committee virtual Chairman’s Mark background media briefing on provisions in the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act https://docs.google.com/forms

7:30 p.m. 1615 H St. NW — U.S.-India Business Council India Ideas Summit, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.state.gov. Livestream: https://events.uschamber.com/2023indiaideassummit

TUESDAY | JUNE 13

9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Gen. Eric Smith to be commandant of the Marine Corps http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Leading and implementing change in a time of turbulence,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/leading-change

10 a.m. — The U.S. Institute of Peace hybrid event: “U.S.-China Crisis Communications in Dire Straits,” with Chad Sbragia, research analyst, Institute for Defense Analyses; Devin Ellis, senior faculty specialist, College of Behavioral and Social Sciences at the University of Maryland; Michael Swaine, senior research fellow, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; and moderator Carla Freeman, senior expert, China, U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.usip.org/events/us-china-crisis

11 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

12 p.m. — Joint media availability with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg

12 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies releases: “Ahead of the NATO Summit: Burden Sharing to Responsibility Sharing,” a new CSIS report by Kathleen McInnis and co-author Daniel Fata, CSIS non-resident senior adviser and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy; Max Bergmann, CSIS director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; E.J. Herold, member, The SPECTRUM Group and former NATO deputy assistant secretary general for defense investment; and moderated by Donatienne Ruy, CSIS director of executive education https://www.csis.org/events/ahead-nato-summit-burden-sharing

2 p.m. — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion: “New START, Nuclear Weapons, and the New Landscape: Arms Control and Deterrence Post-Ukraine,” with Stephen Rosen, national security and military affairs professor at Harvard University; and Dan West, director at SCF Partners https://fedsoc.zoom.us/webinar/register

2:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

3:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 14

8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Hot Topic” forum: “Building the Army of 2030: Maturing the Cyber Domain,” with Lt. Gen. Maria Barrett, commanding general of the Army Cyber Command: former Army Undersecretary Patrick Murphy; and Energy Department CIO Ann Dunkin https://www.ausa.org/events/hot-topics/army-cyber

8:30 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference ahead of two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council U.S.-Indo-Pacific Conference: “The U.S. relationship with ASEAN and the Quad, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,” from June 14-15 https://www.csis.org/events/us-indo-pacific-conference-2023

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee hearing on “Achieving Peace through Strength in the Indo-Pacific: Examining the FY2024 Budget Priorities,” with testimony from Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs; and Clay Epperson, acting deputy assistant administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development Asia Bureau https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council discussion: “NATO membership and security guarantees: Getting Ukraine right at the Vilnius summit,” with Kyllike Sillaste-Elling, Estonian undersecretary for political affairs; and former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nato-membership

2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “Assessing U.S. Efforts to Counter China’s Coercive Belt and Road Diplomacy,” with testimony from Geoffrey Pyatt, assistant secretary of state for energy resources; Arun Venkataraman, assistant commerce secretary for global markets and director general of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service; and Andrew Herscowitz, chief development officer for the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing

THURSDAY | JUNE 15

4 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley lead an in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group ahead of NATO Defense Ministerial https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Defense One Tech Summit on how emerging technologies are shaping the military tactics and national-security strategies of tomorrow, with Charles Luftig, deputy director of national intelligence for policy and capabilities; Michael Horowitz, director, DOD Emerging Capabilities Policy Office, Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense; Maynard Holliday, deputy defense CTO; and Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations https://d1techsummit.com/

9 a.m. — Business Council for International Understanding off-the-record and closed press discussion: “Australia’s Strategic Defense Review and Australian defense priorities,” with Royal Australian Navy Rear Adm. Ian Murray, Australian defense attache to the United States https://bciu.zohobackstage.com/DEFENSEBreakfast

9 a.m. 616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and U.S.-ASEAN Business Council U.S.-Indo-Pacific Conference: “The U.S. relationship with ASEAN and the Quad, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” https://www.csis.org/events/us-indo-pacific-conference-2023

9:30 a.m. 215 Dirksen — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing: “Europe, the United States, and Relations with China: Convergence or Divergence?” https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/europe-united-states-and-relations-china

9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council Central and Eastern European Energy Security Conference https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/8th-annual-cee/

2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Evaluating NATO enlargement since the end of the Cold War,” with Joshua Itzkowitz Shifrinson, associate professor at the University of Maryland; Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program; Susan Colbourn, associate director of Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy; and Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent at the New York Times https://www.brookings.edu/events/evaluating-nato-enlargement

FRIDAY | JUNE 16

12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy, with author Michael Vickers, former undersecretary of defense for intelligence https://www.csis.org/events/lessons-us-intelligence-and-special-operations

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “U.S.-China lessons from Ukraine: Fueling more dangerous Taiwan tensions,” with Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies; retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Jane Rickards, Taiwan correspondent at the Economist https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/us-china-lessons

11 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association closed press meeting of the Logistics Management Division with Leigh Method, deputy assistant defense secretary for logistics [email protected]