Debating Space Force: Should it be a whole new military branch or just a command?

ONE SMALL STEP FOR SPACE FORCE: There’s no disagreement at the Pentagon about the need to focus more on space as a warfighting domain, and that the current organizational structure is inadequate to meet the challenges increasingly posed by Russia and China. The debate is over how much new bureaucracy is needed to accomplish that mission. Does it require a whole new military service, a Space Force, as envisioned by President Trump? Or a more modest Space Corps as part of the Air Force, as advocated by some in Congress? Or has the Pentagon come up with a “Goldilocks” option in the form of a new combatant command with its own four-star commander, just like Joint Special Operations Command, or Cyber Command, which was just elevated to a unified combatant command last year?

SOC IT TO ME: On Tuesday Defense One published a sneak peak at a 14-page draft plan drawn up under the leadership of Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan that proposes creating a Space Operations Command by the end of this year. Like the special ops and cyber commands, it would draw expertise from all the services. “Initially, the Pentagon will recommend that the head of Air Force Space Command also serve as the commander of U.S. Space Command. Space liaisons will be installed in the geographic combatant commands, starting with U.S. European Command,” Defense One quoted the draft document as saying.

MEANS TO AND END? OR THE END ITSELF? The plan to create a new combatant command to focus on space does not require congressional approval, and it could be seen as a first step toward the president’s Space Force, or it could end up as the last word. Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee have been skeptical about the need for the “separate but equal” branch of the armed forces that Trump says should have the same status as the Air Force, Army, Navy and Marine Corps.

Sen. James Inhofe, who’s been chairing the Armed Services Committee in the absence of Sen. John McCain, indicated yesterday that this idea has more appeal. “That’s a little better than a whole new bureaucracy, which is what one of the alternatives was,” Inhofe said. Congress’ National Defense Authorization Act, which was partly written by Senate Armed Services, takes a more conservative approach by creating a sub-unified space command under U.S. Strategic Command. Inhofe said he still wants to see where Trump and other supporters of a Space Force military branch are “going to be on this” Pentagon plan. “We’re still listening on this,” he said.

There are those in the Pentagon who are hoping a combatant command will satisfy advocates for now, and that a full-fledged Space Force, which requires congressional approval, might die on the legislative vine. “It would take a lot of convincing to get me on board,” said Sen. Deb Fischer, who chairs the Senate Armed Services subcommittee overseeing space operations.

NDAA VOTE LIKELY TOMORROW: The Senate is expected to vote on the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act on Thursday, Inhofe said. The final vote would send the $716 billion annual policy bill to Trump’s desk for a signature after the House passed it last week. That would leave the Pentagon’s annual appropriations bill as the remaining piece of the defense budget for the coming year. Sen. Richard Shelby said Tuesday that the Senate is still working to bring the spending legislation to the floor. The House passed its bill in June.

SHUTDOWN TRIPLE DOWN: While his own party is warning a government shutdown over a border wall before the midterm elections would be a boneheaded move, Trump repeated the threat for the third time in three days.

“I don’t care what the political ramifications are, our immigration laws and border security have been a complete and total disaster for decades, and there is no way that the Democrats will allow it to be fixed without a Government Shutdown,” he tweeted yesterday afternoon. “Border Security is National Security, and National Security is the long-term viability of our Country. A Government Shutdown is a very small price to pay for a safe and Prosperous America!”

Republicans in Congress keep saying they are on track to pass required funding measures in a timely manner before the Oct. 1 start of the next fiscal year and have no plans to force a shutdown over the border wall. That means the president would have to refuse to sign the appropriations measures if he wants to single-handedly close down the government.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had a pointed warning for the president yesterday. “I think the American people want us to go forward and work together in a bipartisan way, and usually the person who loses the shutdown is the person who caused it, and Donald Trump is making no bones about it that he might think of causing it.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: Vice President Mike Pence will be on hand in Hawaii today as the 55 cases believed to hold the remains of U.S. troops who died during the Korean War arrive at Hickam Air Force Base for an identification process that could take years. The departure of the small transfer cases, draped in United Nations flags, was marked by what the U.S. military calls an “honorable carry ceremony” at Osan Air Base in South Korea. They will be met by a similar solemn ceremony upon their arrival at the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency laboratory in Hawaii, said to be the largest skeletal identification laboratory in the world.

The AP is reporting that among the remains was a single dog tag, but that an official was unsure if it was from an American. Troops from 16 other United Nations member countries fought alongside U.S forces in the war. CNN reported helmets and some other military equipment were also among the items turned over by the North Koreans.

TORPEDO KITS FOR THE DUTCH: The State Department has approved a possible $169 million sale to the Netherlands of 106 conversion kits, equipment and support services for Raytheon MK 54 lightweight torpedoes. The NATO ally wants to upgrade its current MK 46 torpedoes to the MK 54, according to the announcement by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

MISSILE UPGRADES TO DENMARK: Denmark, another NATO ally, has gotten the green light to purchase 46 Standard Missile, SM-2 Block IIIA All-Up Rounds, RIM BK IIIA (VLS), and other related equipment. The hardware is made by Raytheon and the sale is valued at $152 million. “The SM-2 Block IIIA missiles, combined with the Anti-Air Warfare System (AAWS) combat system, will provide significantly enhanced area defense capabilities over critical Northern Europe air-and-sea-lines of communication,” the DSCA announced.

BAHRAIN GETS ITAS: Gulf ally Bahrain has been cleared for an $80 million purchase of 28 Raytheon TOW Improved Target Acquisition Systems, or ITAS, which is used by light infantry troops to target enemies using TOW anti-tank missiles. The country is trying to develop its integrated ground defense capabilities and the U.S. sees the sale as bolstering security in the region.

MISSILES TO KUWAIT: The State Department has also approved Kuwait for a $30 million purchase of 300 AGM-114R Hellfire missiles and related equipment from Lockheed Martin. Kuwait was already a customer for the missiles and the new sale will “improve the security of a regional partner that is an important force for political stability and economic progress,” according to the DSCA.

CYBER SEA CHANGE: Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen warned yesterday that the next “major attack” on the United States is more likely to take place on the Internet rather than in the air. “DHS was founded 15 years ago to prevent another 9/11, but today I believe the next major attack is more likely to reach us online than on an airplane,” Nielsen told hundreds of private sector leaders and government officials at the department’s first summit on cybersecurity in lower Manhattan. “Cyber threats collectively now exceed the danger of physical attacks against us. This is a major sea change for my department and for our country’s security.”

IT’S OBAMA’S FAULT: At that same conference, Pence blamed complacency and inaction by President Barack Obama for leaving the nation more vulnerable to cyber attack. “In a very real sense, we inherited a cyber crisis. The last administration all but neglected cybersecurity, even though the digital threats were growing more numerous and more dangerous by the day,” Pence said.

“In 2014, a foreign government actually hacked into the White House network itself, and yet, in the face of constant attacks like that, the last administration too often chose silence and paralysis over strength and action.”

IT’S TRUMP’S FAULT: Pence’s remarks came just hours after Facebook removed 32 pages and accounts from the social platform and Instagram, including some with partisan political themes, for engaging in “coordinated inauthentic behavior.” The company noted that some of the activity is similar to the Kremlin-linked propaganda group’s prior efforts, but said the evidence is not strong enough to provide public attribution.

That prompted Schumer to accuse the president of not doing enough to stop election meddling. “When Donald Trump can’t make his mind up as to whether the Russians are continuing to attack us in 2018, that sends a signal to the whole federal government, well, maybe this isn’t so important — when it is. It’s the wellspring of our democracy, and I think we have to do everything we can to stop this.”

CHINA REACTS TO POMPEO: A new American-led effort to counter China’s use of infrastructure subsidies to purchase influence in the Indo-Pacific has provoked a snarky response from Beijing. On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a U.S. plan to counter China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” which can trap poor countries by keeping them in debt forever.

“When we say “free” in the Indo-Pacific, it means we all want all nations — every nation to be able to protect their sovereignty from coercion by other countries,” Pompeo said in remarks before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “The great theme of our engagement is this: Where America goes, we seek partnership, not domination.”

“It is a good thing that the U.S., Japan and Australia are willing to increase their input in the infrastructure building of the region,” retorted Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry at a press briefing yesterday. “If my memory serves me correctly, this is not the first time for them to make this statement. As a Chinese saying goes, talking up big is not as good as rolling up sleeves.”

ANOTHER BAD REPORT CARD: In its latest report to Congress, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction finds few signs of progress in the war in Afghanistan, and faults the U.S. and Afghan governments for classifying some of the data that the office needs to provide the public with a more accurate assessment of how the almost 17-year-old war is going.

In noting that performance assessments of the Afghan National Army as well as the ministries of Defense and Interior were classified for the first time this quarter, John Sopko, the special IG, said the secrecy violates the spirit of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act about noting the congressional conferees expressed concern about the lack of transparency.

The report found that as of May, the Afghan government’s control or influence of the country’s population and districts saw no change from last quarter, while the number of districts and the amount of territory contested between the government and the Taliban rose slightly.

The report also cited a conclusion from the U.S. Department of Justice that President Ashraf Ghani’s anti-corruption campaign is faltering, and that Afghan government was reverting to “business as usual” and simply “checking the box” when it comes to fighting corruption.

ANOTHER AFGHAN CEASEFIRE? There’s been no official confirmation that U.S. diplomats met with Taliban representatives in Qatar to try to jump start the peace talks, but no one is disputing the reports that Alice Wells, the State Department’s point person, was in Doha last week.

This morning the Washington Post reports that according to Taliban officials, the two sides  discussed having a second ceasefire this month after the success of a three-day truce in June to mark the end of Ramadan.

WHERE’S BAGHDADI? As U.S.-backed Syrian forces move against the last bastion of Islamic State fighters trapped near the Iraqi border, one big question is whether their elusive leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is trapped along with them. Or did he slip out of Syria at some point? Or did he succumb to his wounds as has been reported multiple times?

At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing a British two-star general said while the coalition expects there are a “high proportion of foreign terrorist fighters” among the 1,000 or so remaining ISIS forces, he demurred when asked the mother of all questions, “How likely is it Baghdadi is there?”

“It’s a question we are frequently asked,” replied Maj. Gen. Felix Gedney. “And I come back to the same answer I always give. When we find Baghdadi, the international press will be the first to know that we’ve found him and dealt with him.”

Stay tuned.

THE RUNDOWN

AFP: Two attacks in Afghanistan kill at least 26 people

Reuters: Three Russian journalists killed in Central African Republic ambush

Air Force Times: Air Force begins in-house JSTARS maintenance amid Northrop Grumman’s shortfalls

Foreign Policy: Will Djibouti Become Latest Country to Fall Into China’s Debt Trap?

New York Times: Ordinary Iranians on Trump Talks Offer: ‘Why Not Try the Americans?’

Marine Corps Times: Marines receive new advanced air defense system as air threat looms

Task and Purpose: Man Who Impersonated Army General, Picked Up A Date In A Helicopter Sentenced

USNI News: Experts Weigh the Future of the Pentagon’s Space Force

War on the Rocks: The 100th Episode: Is a Major War Coming?

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | AUG. 1

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Open Hearing on Foreign Influence Operations and Their Use of Social Media Platforms. intelligence.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Nomination Hearing for R. Clarke Cooper to be Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs. foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue: A Conversation with Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. csis.org

THURSDAY | AUG. 2

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Army Cyber + Networks Hot Topic Symposium. ausa.org

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Gen. Carlton Everhart, Commander of Air Force Air Mobility Command.

10:45 a.m. Dirksen 419. Full Committee Hearing Assessing the Value of the NATO Alliance. foreign.senate.gov

FRIDAY | AUG. 3

1 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Living With Genocide: Four Years After ISIS Attacked. hudson.org

6:45 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special Topic Breakfast with Kevin Tokarski, Associate Administrator for Strategic Sealift, Maritime Administration. navyleague.org

MONDAY | AUG. 6

Noon. Rayburn 2168. Disentangling from Syria. defensepriorities.org

TUESDAY | AUG. 7

10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A Conversation with UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson. atlanticcouncil.org

WEDNESDAY | AUG. 8

10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. U.S. Arms Transfer Policy and Shaping the Way Ahead with Ambassador Tina Kaidanow, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs. csis.org

5:30 p.m. 800 17th St. NW. 2018 HORIZONS Scholarship Celebration. womenindefense.net

ADVERTISEMENT: NDIA invites you to attend the Army Science and Technology Symposium and Showcase August twenty first through twenty third at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in DC. 
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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Usually the person who loses the shutdown is the person who caused it, and Donald Trump is making no bones about it that he might think of causing it.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, warning President Trump to think twice before forcing a shutdown of the federal government over funding for his Mexico border wall.

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