President Joe Biden promised he would not raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000 a year to help pay for his agenda, but recent polling suggests voters remain skeptical.
Suspicions that Biden may raise taxes on a larger swathe of the electorate open a lane of attack as the cost of sweeping new federal spending comes due.
In an August survey by Scott Rasmussen and RMG Research, 61% of registered voters said they believed the Biden administration would raise taxes on middle-class Americans, even as they were reminded of the president’s pledge. Twenty-seven percent said they believed a tax increase was unlikely, while 12% said they were unsure.
Most Republicans (83%) said they thought tax hikes were on the horizon, and nearly half of Democrats agreed. Voters who identified with Biden’s party were split, with 47% saying a tax increase was likely and 44% saying it was not. Forty-four percent of independents said they expected tax increases, compared to 25% who did not.
The nationwide poll surveyed 1,200 people between Aug. 4-9.
The White House has said repeatedly that Democrats’ spending on infrastructure and families is popular with voters across the political aisle and will spur economic growth, seeking to allay concerns over inflationary pressures and the high cost.
After the Senate passed a bipartisan infrastructure package with $550 billion in new spending — a 69-30 vote marking a victory for Biden — Democrats began turning attention to a multi-trillion budget plan that promises to invest in a historic expansion of social programs. No Republicans are expected to back the reconciliation package, which is expected to total more than $3.5 trillion and cannot be filibustered in the Senate. On Friday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi repeated her pledge to hold off on passing the Senate bipartisan infrastructure plan in the House until the Senate sends the reconciliation package through.
In a memo obtained by the Washington Examiner on Tuesday, director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese argued both pieces of legislation should be viewed as “long-term investments that are spread over the course of the decade.” Biden made a similar point in remarks touting the bipartisan deal’s Senate passage, which he billed as the start of an “infrastructure decade” for America to build its future.
But despite the White House’s reassurances, Democrats in competitive districts have begun voicing concerns.
In a closed-door meeting this month, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney was quoted by CNN as saying, “If the election were held today, we would lose.”
Allies are spooked, and pollsters argue there’s more to the story than what the Biden administration and Democratic Party leadership are selling.
Ryan Clancy, chief strategist at No Labels, a bipartisan political organization that supports the hard infrastructure package, said that while many national surveys show broad support for the spending pushed by Biden and Democratic leadership in Congress, the picture is more complicated.
More than two-thirds of voters in 33 swing districts and closely watched House districts polled by his group are concerned the high spending could harm their pocketbooks through inflation, higher taxes, or other possibilities. The HarrisX/No Labels poll surveyed 12,000 voters between July 16-21 and had a plus or minus 4-6 percentage point margin of error for each district.
Such findings “blow up” many of the arguments used to defend the proposals, Clancy said in an email.
Democratic leaders have told members voters will reward them for backing more than $4 trillion in new spending, regardless of whether the legislation is passed along party lines, he said.
“The poll suggests otherwise.”
Members heading home for August recess have been instructed to focus on Biden’s plans for jobs, tax cuts for families, and cutting the cost of healthcare, a messaging strategy tested extensively.
Last month, pollsters for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee trialed 150 different messages in six swing states. The message deemed most effective? “Cutting taxes for middle class families, creating jobs by investing in infrastructure like roads, bridges and high-speed internet, and cutting your health care costs,” the memo said.
The Democratic National Committee has even planned a national bus tour featuring state and local leaders pushing the message.
But taxes surfaced again and again in further testing.
Along with lowering the cost of senior care and health insurance premiums, proposals to “cut the taxes of Americans with kids” was the No. 1 message among women, Trump voters, black people, and non-college-educated white people, according to the report.
Paying for the spending by “making big corporations and the wealthy special interests who rig the rules pay their fair share,” while ensuring middle-class voters don’t see a tax hike, appealed across demographics and was the second most popular message with Biden voters and college-educated white people.
“Discussing how Democrats’ proposals are paid for is not simply a technical detail, but a core part of our plan’s popularity,” the memo read.
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Biden’s political opponents have their target in view.
On Monday, a Republican National Committee email pointed to the “hidden tax of rising prices” and a skyrocketing national debt as top concerns for voters. Further, Democrats’ $3.5 trillion social spending bill “is larger than the economy of the UK.”
