Cook Political Report’s final prediction for the composition of the House following the 2020 election should be music to Democrats’ ears.
The nonpartisan publication believes the Democrats, who currently hold a 232-197 majority over Republicans, will expand their margin by 10 to 15 seats. The prediction was announced Monday, a day before Election Day. Its analysis said an increase of anywhere from five to 20 seats for Democrats is not out of the realm of possibilities.
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[PREDICT TUESDAY’S WINNER WITH THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER’S INTERACTIVE ELECTORAL MAP]
The organization changed the designation of eight House races, all of which it decided are more likely to go in favor of Democrats, compared to its previous rating.
It changed two races in Texas, which has become a beacon of hope for Democrats hoping to turn the traditionally red state purple or blue, to toss-ups while making another race in the state a “lean Democratic” district.
Cook Political Report provided some breathing room to Democratic incumbents Andy Kim, who represents New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, Josh Gottheimer, who represents New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District, Sean Patrick Maloney, of New York’s 18th Congressional District, and Pennsylvania Rep. Conor Lamb, all of whom are facing tough challengers.
The publication’s prediction for the Senate is also bleak for Republicans. While the GOP currently holds a 53-45 majority, with two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats, Charlie Cook, publisher and editor of the publication, said last week, “I think it’s only about a 1-in-3, 1-in-4 chance that the Senate stays in Republican hands. I mean, I think we’re looking at a net gain of four seats, maybe five. And it could go north of that because toss-up races typically break overwhelmingly one direction or the other.”
Among the Republicans who may be at risk of losing their seat are North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, and Arizona Sen. Martha McSally. Republicans are expected to gain one seat in Alabama, with Sen. Doug Jones facing a tough GOP challenge from former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, which means Democrats would need to grab four Republican seats and take the White House for control of the Senate.
When it comes to the presidency, Cook Political Report predicted the president will have a tough battle to win another four years. According to its count, President Trump would have to win every state it considers a toss-up — Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and Texas — even to be able to make a final push to win 270 Electoral College votes.
If he’s able to win all of those races, he’d still need to win at least two of the following states that it believes lean Democratic: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
