‘Successful’ US commando raid in Syria results in reports of civilian deaths

‘THE MISSION WAS SUCCESSFUL’: First word came in a brief statement from Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.

“U.S. Special Operations forces under the control of U.S. Central Command conducted a counterterrorism mission this evening in northwest Syria. The mission was successful. There were no U.S. casualties. More information will be provided as it becomes available.”

Then reports from the scene from the volunteer rescue group known as the White Helmets reported that among the 13 killed by U.S. commandos were six children and four women.

Several residents told the Associated Press they saw body parts scattered near the site of the raid, with witnesses describing a large ground assault, with U.S. forces using loudspeakers urging women and children to leave the area. Images on social media showed rubble from what appeared to be a house, and videos captured U.S. aircraft over the scene.

The raid, which reportedly included air cover from U.S. fighter jets and Apache helicopter gunships, took place near the northwest village of Atmeh, located north of Idlib and just east of Syria’s border with Turkey, an area that has several camps for refugees from Syria’s civil war.

WHO WAS TARGETED?: In the immediate hours after the attack, neither the Pentagon nor U.S. Central Command released any information about the intended target of the attack.

President Joe Biden released a statement Thursday morning on the target of the operation:

“Last night at my direction, U.S. military forces in northwest Syria successfully undertook a counterterrorism operation to protect the American people and our Allies, and make the world a safer place. Thanks to the skill and bravery of our Armed Forces, we have taken off the battlefield Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi—the leader of ISIS. All Americans have returned safely from the operation. I will deliver remarks to the American people later this morning. May God protect our troops.”

The region is largely controlled by Syrian rebels and Turkish-backed forces, but it is also thought to be an area where several senior al Qaeda operatives and other militants are holed up.

The raid is the largest U.S. operation in the province since October of 2019, when U.S. Special Forces chased ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi into a tunnel where he blew himself up with a suicide vest.

MORE FROM McKENZIE? U.S. Central Command’s top commander, Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, was previously scheduled to be interviewed this morning at the Middle East Institute’s annual conference.

But a check of the group’s website shows the keynote remarks from McKenzie have been canceled. It’s expected the Pentagon will release more details of the raid this morning.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Senate and House members will be briefed today in separate closed sessions on the efforts of the Biden administration to de-escalate the crisis with Russia over Ukraine, including President Joe Biden’s decision to dispatch some 3,000 U.S. troops to NATO’s eastern flank to reassure nervous allies.

Senators will be briefed in the morning, and the House in the afternoon, by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.

BIDEN DEPLOYING 3,000 TROOPS TO FORTIFY EUROPE AMID RUSSIA-UKRAINE STANDOFF

‘FORCES ARE NOT GOING TO FIGHT IN UKRAINE’: Yesterday morning’s Pentagon announcement had been signaled last week by Biden, who said he would not be waiting for NATO to activate its rapid response force to send additional U.S. forces to Romania, Poland, and Germany.

“These forces are not going to fight in Ukraine. They are going to ensure the robust defense of our NATO allies,” said spokesman John Kirby, who said the reinforcements were “separate and in addition to” the troops the Pentagon put on heightened alert for a possible NATO mission.

“Those 8,500 are not currently being deployed but remain ready to move if called for the NATO response force or as needed for other contingencies as directed by the secretary or by President Biden,” Kirby said. “That force has not been activated, so they aren’t going anywhere.”

PSAKI: BIDEN OPEN TO DIRECT TALKS WITH PUTIN

WHO’S GOING WHERE: The Pentagon says that at “the express invitation” of the Romanian government, the U.S. will reposition 1,000 soldiers from the Army’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment based in Germany to Romania, where they will join 900 U.S. troops already there.

“This is a Stryker squadron, a mounted cavalry unit that’s designed to deploy in short order and to move quickly once in place,” said Kirby.

In addition, elements of an infantry brigade combat team of 1,700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division will deploy from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland, while the 18th Airborne Corps, also from Fort Bragg, will move a joint task force-capable headquarters of about 300 troops to Germany.

WHAT WILL THEY DO EXACTLY? Given that the U.S. troops won’t be going to Ukraine and that there is no intelligence or other indication that Russia intends to threaten countries in the NATO alliance, reporters quizzed Kirby on the rationale for the deployments, which could be seen as largely symbolic.

“He clearly is providing himself many options, lots more capabilities. For exactly what purpose? We don’t know right now. And because we don’t know exactly what his purpose is, we want to make sure we’re ready on the NATO front to defend our allies.”

“It’s important that we send a strong signal to Mr. Putin,” Kirby said. “We are making it clear that we’re going to be prepared to defend our NATO allies if it comes to that.”

The Pentagon continues to see Russian President Vladimir Putin bolstering his already formidable forces along his western border with Ukraine, as well as Belarus, and increased additional naval activity in the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic.

WHITE HOUSE DITCHES RUSSIA-UKRAINE ‘IMMINENT’ THREAT ASSESSMENT

A USEFUL LEAK? In yesterday’s briefing, the Pentagon took the unusual step of confirming the validity of a document reported by a Spanish newspaper which outlined a U.S. proposal on limiting missile deployments in Europe, including a specific concern mentioned by President Putin about the possibility U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles could be covertly deployed at Aegis Ashore missile defense sites in Romania and Bulgaria.

“Now anti-ballistic missile launchers are deployed in Romania and are being set up in Poland. They will probably be there soon if they are not yet built,” Putin said at his Moscow news conference Tuesday. “These are MK-41 launchers that can launch Tomahawks. In other words, they are no longer just counter-missiles, and these assault weapons can cover thousands of kilometers of our territory. Isn’t this a threat to us?”

The documents reported by daily El Pais proposed to offer Russia a “transparency mechanism” to verify the absence of Tomahawk cruise missiles in return for a reciprocal agreement covering two missile-launching bases of its choice in Russian territory.

“We did not make this document public, but now that it is, it confirms to the entire world what we have always been saying: There is no daylight between our public statements and our private discussions,” Kirby said. “The United States has gone the extra mile to find a diplomatic solution, and if Russia actually wants to negotiate a solution, as it claims it does, this document certainly makes clear that there is a path forward to do so.”

HAWLEY SHOOTS BACK: Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is defending a letter he wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken questioning America’s continued support for Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership.

“It is not clear that Ukraine’s accession would serve U.S. interests,” Hawley wrote, while also criticizing Biden’s deployment of additional U.S. troops to Europe as detracting “from the U.S. military’s ability to ready and modernize forces to deter China in the Indo-Pacific.”

The White House immediately accused Hawley of “parroting Russian talking points.”

“If you are digesting Russian misinformation and parroting Russian talking points, you are not aligned with long-standing bipartisan American values, which is to stand up for the sovereignty of countries like Ukraine, but others, their right to choose their own alliances and also, to stand against, very clearly, the efforts or attempts or potential attempts by any country to invade and take territory of another country,” said press secretary Jen Psaki.

On Fox last night, Hawley told Tucker Carlson he thinks the U.S. should help Ukraine defend itself, but NATO membership is not the right way.

“I’m not in favor of Russia taking over Ukraine, far from it,” Hawley said, “if we expand NATO, it means that the United States will be providing additional security guarantees that we will be more embroiled in European conflicts. This isn’t the time for that. We can’t do everything.”

“I’m against it because it would mean more troops, more American troops, in Europe at a time when we need to be focusing less on Europe and more on our major security threats elsewhere, China, and then, of course, our own southern border.”

WHITE HOUSE SAYS HAWLEY ‘PARROTING THE TALKING POINTS’ OF RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden deploying 3,000 troops to fortify Europe amid Russia-Ukraine standoff

Washington Examiner: Psaki: Biden open to direct talks with Putin

Washington Examiner: Threats to Putin’s inner circle may do little to shift Ukraine plans

Washington Examiner: White House says military posture could shift if Putin ups threat to Ukraine

Washington Examiner: White House ditches Russia-Ukraine ‘imminent’ threat assessment

Washington Examiner: Navy SEALs who sued Defense Department over vaccine mandate allege retaliation

Washington Examiner: Army to start discharging coronavirus vaccine refusers ‘immediately

Washington Examiner: Austin and Blinken testify about Afghanistan withdrawal behind closed doors

Washington Examiner: Taliban reopen universities for Afghan women in 2 provinces

Bloomberg: Private Pentagon Report Shows Hurdles to Hypersonic Weapons

New York Times: U.S. Won’t Bow to Russia Over Who Can Join NATO

Washington Post: A Punishing Threat Hangs Over Putin: Personal Sanctions

New York Times: As West Presses Putin Over Ukraine Buildup, China Has His Back

Wall Street Journal: U.S. To Send Jet Fighters, Warship To U.A.E.

Air Force Magazine: New NDIA Survey Gives “F” Grade to Defense Business Climate

Bloomberg: Lockheed’s $34 Billion Heavy-Lift Copter Scores In Early Pentagon Tests

Inside Defense: Navy Leading International Unmanned Task Force In Large-Scale Exercise

Air Force Magazine: Mitchell Paper: Strategies to Surge US Expertise in Electronic Warfare

19fortyfive.com: The Wagner Group Is Heading Closer to Ukraine: Who Are They?

19fortyfive.com: How China Could Get Its Hands on an F-35C Stealth Fighter

USNI News: Navy Surpasses 100 Separations For COVID-19 Vaccination Refusal

Military.com: The Three Religious Exemptions Granted by the Military Went to Marines on Their Way Out

Calendar

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3

CANCELLED: 9 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual MEI-CENTCOM conference with Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of CENTCOM, https://www.mei.edu/events/2nd-mei-centcom-annual-conference

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Russia-Ukraine conflict and implications to Turkey,” with Debra Cagan, energy fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network’s Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and Gulf Initiative; Yevgeniya Gaber, senior fellow at Carleton University’s Center in Modern Turkish Studies; and Can Kasapoglu, director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Research Security and Defense Studies Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/russia-ukraine-conflict

10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Poland’s Leadership of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in a Time of Crisis,” with Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss.; and Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau https://www.youtube.com/user/HelsinkiCommission

10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Ideas and Priorities for NATO’s Future — Presenting the NATO Shadow Strategic Concept,” with former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, fellow at the Atlantic Council; Julian Lindley-French, visiting research fellow at National Defense University and founder of the Alphen Group; and Nico Lange, defense analyst at the German Ministry of Defense https://www.gmfus.org/event/ideas-and-priorities-natos-future

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms

11:30 a.m. — Institute for National Security Studies International Conference virtual panel discussion: “Will the U.S. Abandon the Middle East?” with Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East https://www.inss.org.il/event/annual-conference-15/

12 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “the dual threats from Russia and China and the importance of strengthening NATO,” with Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies a virtual discussion: “Turkey, Russia and the Struggle for Power in the Middle East and North Africa,” with Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “How the United States Can Help Defend Ukraine,” with former U.S. Army Europe Commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges; and Michael Doran, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2062-virtual-event

5 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual discussion: U.S. Diplomacy as a Force for Good,” with former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale, diplomatic fellow at the Wilson Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar-u-s-diplomacy-as-a-force-for-good/

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 4

8 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Evolving Maritime Issues in the Indo-Pacific,” with Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; James Kraska, chair of the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Raul Pedrozo, professor at the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; and Kathleen Walsh, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College https://www.stimson.org/event/evolving-maritime-issues

2 p.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual ICAS Winter Symposium on “The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security” with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, chairman of the Foundation for American Security & Freedom. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/icas-winter-symposium-special-tickets-247390560827

2:30 p.m. — Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance virtual discussion on “Implications of the First Combat Intercept of THAAD,” with John Rood, former under secretary of defense for policy; retired Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, former deputy commander, U.S. Pacific Air Forces; retired Col. Alan Wiernicki, former commander, 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade; retired Col. David Shank, former commander, 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command; and Riki Ellison, chairman and founder, Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance https://www.youtube.com/watch

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 7

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense Budget Analysis program: “Experts Preview the FY 2023 Defense Budget Request,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Stacie Pettyjohn, director, Defense Program, Center for a New American Security; Travis Sharp, fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; Thomas Spoehr, director, Center for National Defense, The Heritage Foundation; Todd Harrison, director, Defense Budget Analysis and Aerospace Security Project, CSIS; and Seamus Daniels, associate director and associate fellow, Defense Budget Analysis, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/experts-preview-fy-2023-defense-budget-request

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 8

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: “Military Personnel Talent Management Modernization and the Effects of Legacy Policies,” with Army Lt. Gen. Gary Brito, deputy chief of staff, G-1; Vice Adm. John  Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Air Force Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services; Marine Lt. Gen. David Ottignon, deputy commandant, manpower and reserve affairs; and Patricia Mulcahy, deputy chief of space operations for personnel https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual conversation on “Army priorities for 2022 and beyond,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16

All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I mean, listen, if we expand NATO it means that the United States will be providing additional security guarantees, that we will be more embroiled in European conflicts. This isn’t the time for that. We can’t do everything. The United States can’t do everything. We’ve got to focus on the safety of the American people, and the number one threat to that abroad right now is China.”

Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley, on Fox, explaining his opposition to admitting Ukraine to NATO.

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