Tara Reade’s sexual assault allegation against Joe Biden is not hurting his ability to top President Trump. A set of polls measuring voter opinion suggests that his continued lead over Trump is due to many voters who believe Reade’s allegations but are supporting him anyway.
A Monmouth University national poll conducted between April 30 and May 4 found Biden at 50% support and Trump and 41% support.
A large majority, 86%, said that they have heard about Reade’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her when she worked as a staff assistant in his Senate office in 1993, which Biden strongly denies. About one-third, 37%, said that the allegation is probably true.
Suspicions regarding whether the allegation is true or not break along party lines. But a closer look at those who find the allegation to be true could reveal why Biden keeps his dominance: 32% of those who think that the allegation is true still support Biden.
That section of voters represents a sentiment in a widely circulated New York Times opinion piece published Wednesday. Linda Hirshman, an author who writes about sexual abuse and harassment, said that while she believes Reade, she will still vote for Biden.
“It may not be just, but I’m swimming away from Mr. Trump’s sinking ship as hard as I can. If I have to, I’ll vote for Mr. Biden. I hope I’m not going to drown anyway,” she wrote.
The finding also empowers Democrats who find themselves in an awkward position of backing Biden in the face of an assault claim but who do not want to look bad by publicly discrediting Reade or saying that they do not believe her.
“It’s not up to me on whom to believe. It’s up to the voters ultimately whom to believe,” Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown told reporters this week. “Just like it’s up to the voters on whom to believe when Donald Trump paid off strippers and Donald Trump had all his issues, including grabbing women.”
An Economist/YouGov national poll conducted May 3-5 found Biden at 46% support and Trump at 42% support. In the same poll, 31% found the allegation against Biden credible, 19% said it is not credible, 16% were not sure, and 34% had not heard enough to say.
When asked what they thought about how the sexual assault allegation should affect Biden’s candidacy were to be proven true, only about one-third, 37%, said it disqualifies Biden from the presidency. Another 29% said that it is relevant to the election but does not disqualify him, and 12% said it is not relevant to the election.
Some polls do show warning signs for Biden though. A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted May 2-3 did not ask whether voters would choose Biden or Trump if the election were held today, but it found that the allegations made 32% of all voters and 21% of voters who lean Democratic less likely to vote for Biden. The harshest blow for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee: 30% of Democrats said that the party should find a different nominee to go up against Trump.
“Biden’s lead continues to build even as overall opinion of him remains soft. It’s possible that recent headlines about a sexual assault claim may have had an impact on his favorability rating, but most voters still see this election mainly as a referendum on Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The calculations of voters could change, though, based on how much attention stays on Reade and her allegations and whether any new evidence in her favor emerges.
“We don’t know what impact this allegation will have in the long run. For some voters who believe the charge, it is still not enough to override their desire to oust Trump. The outlook is murkier for those who don’t have an opinion on it. This group includes a number of Democratic-leaning independents who could potentially be swayed if this story grows in importance,” said Murray said.
